Donald Trump returned to the presidency in the 2024 election by assembling a coalition very different from the one that carried him to victory in 2016.
He did better with demographics such as Hispanic voters and young men, while sweeping all seven battleground states.
Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2022 Student Action Summit at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. By Gage Skidmore.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 450th mile of the new border wall Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, near the Texas Mexico border. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
However, it was always going to be a challenge for Trump to hold that coalition together, and now, after the Republicans’ election wipeout, it appears that unique coalition is now a thing of the past.
A Fracturing Movement
In an election postmortem, CNN looked at what’s become of the MAGA movement, citing CNN Voter Poll data.
CNN looked at five states — Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina — where Trump won comfortably in 2024, but Democrats won their Senate races on Tuesday. The data found that “roughly one-tenth of those Trump voters backed the Democratic candidate this year.” That was also the case in Georgia and North Carolina, also 2024 Trump states, although they are viewed more traditionally as swing states than the other five.
CNN also asked voters who backed Trump two years ago how they viewed this year’s elections. Of those, 80 percent say they approve of Trump’s performance, while 20 percent disapprove. When asked whether they voted to support Trump, 35 percent said they did, 5 percent said they opposed him, and 60 percent said the president was “not a factor.”
When the poll asked about economic conditions, 2024 Trump voters were split 50/50, with half answering “excellent/good” and the other half “not so good/poor.” In the survey, 59 percent said Trump’s policies have “improved economic conditions,” 27 percent said they have “worsened” them, and 15 percent said the president hadn’t impacted conditions at all.
However, of those who backed Kamala Harris in 2024, CNN reported that more than three-quarters saw their vote in 2026 as opposition to Trump, while just 2 percent of Harris voters said they voted for a Republican for Congress.
And on the question of the Iran war, the survey found that of 2024 Trump voters, 75 percent think the war was the right decision, while 25 percent called it wrong.
While most Trump backers still support him on that policy, 25 percent of his coalition is still millions of people.
Vice President JD Vance, in his post-election social media message, noted both that the GOP got their voters to the polls, but many of them voted for Democrats, and also that Iran was the biggest reason for the midterm election result.
Those Who Stayed Home
Another major factor in the election result, according to CNN’s numbers: 2024 Trump voters who were less motivated to vote this year, or who stayed home.
The poll, they noted, does not factor in “the share of [Trump] supporters who, unenthusiastic or unmotivated, simply decided to sit this year’s midterm out.”
But that’s only part of the story of the 2026 midterms.
“Even among those who went to the polls, fractures in the Trump coalition are visible,” CNN said.
The “Multiracial Coalition” is Dead
The New Republic, this week, examined how the demographic shifts toward Trump in the 2024 election did not repeat themselves on Tuesday, and appeared to move in the opposite direction.
“The pundit class couldn’t get enough of the narrative that nonwhites were constructing a durable multiracial MAGA coalition,” Perry Bacon said. “So much for all that.”
President Donald Trump delivers the Commencement address at the graduation ceremony for the University of Alabama, Thursday, May 1, 2025, at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Bacon pointed to exit polls showing that many of the demographics that moved towards Trump in 2024 had moved back to the Democrats in 2026.
“Exit polls and other surveys suggest that around 90 percent of Black voters, 70 percent of Asian Americans, and 64 to 70 percent of Latinos backed Democrats in this year’s elections,” Bacon noted, citing post-election surveys. “Combining those three groups, about 72 percent of voters of color backed Democrats, 26 percent Republicans.”
The lesson seems to be one both parties could stand to learn: Realignments and coalitions in politics are almost never permanent, and officials have to earn voters’ support, in election after election, without taking it for granted.
As always, readers should treat these numbers with the caveat that demographic polling in the immediate aftermath of an election can be questionable.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
