Iran’s military has been pounded hard and taken a lot of damage earlier in the year, with Tehran’s air force, navy, and air defenses mostly destroyed. Before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump promised that he would not attack Iran again until after the elections were over.
Now that those elections are over — and Trump’s decision to launch the war is widely seen as a major reason that his party lost — where exactly do things stand with Iran?
F-22 Raptor in Lakeland, Florida. Original National Security Journal Photo.
U.S. Air Force Capt. Nick “Laz” Le Tourneau, pilot and commander of the F-22 Raptor Aerial Demonstration Team, performs an aerial demonstration during the Spirit of St. Louis Air Show and STEM Expo in Chesterfield, Missouri, June 7, 2026. Aerial demonstrations are conducted to showcase the capabilities of the F-22 and provide the public an opportunity to observe Air Force operations, gaining a better understanding of its mission. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Mary Bowers)
According to CNBC, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said over the weekend that there’s currently little hope for an imminent diplomatic solution to the situation in Iran.
Rubio made the comments to reporters before boarding a plane for the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in France. He accused Iran of making “outrageous and ridiculous” demands in the talks so far.
The Secretary of State said the president would prefer to solve “this and every problem diplomatically,” but also said that “sometimes that’s not possible, unfortunately.”
However, the president had told CNN, in an interview the same day, that it was “highly unlikely” that he would have to go back to active war with Iran if talks show progress, while continuing to threaten to “hit” Iran if he has to.
“It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump told CNN’s Jim Sciutto in a phone interview.
The president once again went through his litany of reasons why the war has actually been successful: Iran is in economic dire straits, and their different military capabilities have been destroyed.
“Highly unlikely it will be necessary,” Trump added. “I would if necessary, but we hit them really hard. I hit them so hard. You don’t know how hard I hit them.”
Per CNBC, those comments led Brent Crude to drop below $100 a barrel, to $94.1, as of Monday morning. It’s the benchmark’s lowest price since August 31, after the price dropped throughout last week.
A Continuing Stalemate
The situation in Iran has been in something of a holding pattern for much of the fall. Indirect talks are ongoing, mostly mediated by Qatar, while the Strait of Hormuz deadlock remains.
CNN noted that Iranian hardliners have “seized on the results of last week’s midterm elections… as a sign of a weakened Trump presidency that would be more willing to give in to their country’s demands to be allowed to continue its nuclear program.” But that doesn’t appear to have led to any breakthroughs in the negotiations, at least not so far.
A Qatar Meeting
The next step in the talks, according to Al Jazeera, is an upcoming meeting President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have set with Qatar’s prime minister, Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, at the White House.
Sheik Mohammed is also Qatar’s foreign minister.
According to the report, Iran’s latest offer came last Thursday: a “nuclear and peace proposal” that is “to be discussed only after Washington meets Tehran’s seven demands,” Al Jazeera said.
In a late-October interview with Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi laid out the “seven-day roadmap” Iran is proposing to reach a deal.
“On day one, the US implements a set of measures. On day two, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and navigation will be restored to what it used to be,” the foreign minister said. Iran wants sanctions lifted, assets unfrozen, and the U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz lifted.
The Energy Effect
The New York Times, in an analysis published over the weekend, looked at a less-publicized aspect of the Iran mess: The effect on renewable energy, as oil has hit bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The piece was written ahead of the COP31 summit, set to convene this week in Antalya, Turkey.
“The war in Iran has been very good for renewable energy,” the Times analysis said. “More than 40 countries have started or accelerated projects involving wind, solar, electric, and other low-carbon technologies.”
At the same time, more countries are using coal, described as “the dirtiest fossil fuel.”
The Times called the current moment “a profound paradox.”
The war, the analysis said, “simultaneously demonstrated the urgent need for a clean energy transition to secure alternative fuel supplies, while in many cases pushing countries closer to the fossil fuels driving climate change.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
