Iran Warns Its Citizens to Brace for a Cold Winter: Iran’s government has a winter problem its missiles can’t shoot its way out of.
On Tuesday, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters in Tehran that gas cuts could hit the entire country, including the capital, if consumption runs high this winter, Reuters reported.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 60th Fighter Squadron, flies overhead after conducting a live weapons drop at Camp Shelby, Miss., Oct 25, 2023. During the exercise, pilots tested various munitions including the GBU-12s, GBU-31v1s, and 362 rounds of 25mm Training Munitions from the gun.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Melanie “Mach” Kluesner, pilot of the F-35A Demonstration Team, performs aerial maneuvers during the Southernmost Airshow Spectacular at Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, on March 30, 2025. The team’s mission is to inspire, engage, and recruit the next generation of Airmen by showcasing the capabilities of the Air Force’s premier fifth-generation fighter. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Nicholas Rupiper)
She put this year’s shortfall at 430 million cubic meters, against roughly 300 million in previous years. That’s an extra 130 million cubic meters a day the regime has to find, ration, or ask its people to do without.
For a country sitting on part of the largest natural gas field on the planet, that is a remarkable admission. However, it’s also nothing new. The conflict made a bad situation worse.
The War Damage Is Real
The current conflict began with a US and Israeli air campaign on February 28. In the opening phase, strikes hit four gas processing plants, according to National Iranian Gas Company managing director Saeed Tavakoli.
That damage initially took 230 million cubic meters of daily capacity offline. Roughly 100 million has been restored since.
Iran’s acting petroleum minister, Hamid Bourdoz, was even more blunt in his comments. He confirmed last week that the strikes knocked out a quarter of the country’s gas production capacity and offered no timeline for restoring it.
He said households and industry would both need to cut usage by 20 percent to get through the season. Cement plants already had their gas shut off entirely in late October.
The NIGC has warned that 11 of Iran’s 31 provinces could face supply problems. Mazandaran on the Caspian coast, along with Golestan and North Khorasan on the Turkmen border, top the list. Those are cold places in January.
Then the weather turned. After a sudden temperature drop this fall, Tavakoli said consumption jumped by about 70 million cubic meters a day—a 30 percent spike—in five days. Real winter hasn’t even arrived yet.
Dress Warmer, Use Less, Get Paid
The regime’s answer is mostly to ask people nicely. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called for a nationwide campaign to cut gas use by at least 10 percent, promising that anyone who saves gas will see the proceeds deposited straight into their bank account. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned that prices could rise if consumption stays high.
In Tehran, officials are drafting a directive that would set enforceable consumption targets for water, gas, and electricity in every province, with quotas handed down monthly.
Executive Vice President Mohammad-Jafar Ghaempanah even noted that the president is personally practicing conservation to set the example. (Which is doubtful.)
If this sounds familiar, it should. In 2023, then-Oil Minister Javad Owji told Iranians to dress warmer at home and threatened to cut off heavy users.
In December 2024, the government closed schools, universities, and offices across the country, with a daily deficit officials pegged at 350 million cubic meters. Even before the bombs fell this year, Iran was running a peak winter deficit of 200 to 250 million cubic meters a day.
Say what you will about the US airstrikes. That’s only part of the problem. Iran’s gas crisis is a decades-old, self-inflicted wound. Heavily subsidized gas encourages waste, aging equipment leaks and breaks, and sanctions keep out the technology needed to keep mature fields producing. The conflict just ripped the band-aid off.
The Lifeline Is Thin
So where does Tehran turn? Moscow, of course. After meeting Vladimir Putin on November 5, security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the two countries discussed pipelines to ease Iran’s shortages.
However, as Iran International’s Umud Shokri pointed out, the volumes being floated—roughly 2 billion cubic meters a year—work out to about 5.5 million cubic meters a day. That is less than 2 percent of the projected peak shortfall.
Turkmenistan, which already has pipelines into northeastern Iran, is the other obvious option. As of mid-October, there was no confirmed agreement for substantial additional Turkmen supplies this winter.
Repairs are the real fix, and they come with an asterisk. Iranian engineers, with help from Chinese and Russian suppliers, can restore much of the damaged capacity. However, rebuilding under the threat of renewed strikes is a different math problem. Nobody wants to finance, equip, or staff a plant that may be a target again next month.
The US Pressure Campaign Is Working… For Now
From Washington’s point of view, this pressure campaign is doing exactly what it was designed to do. The US blockade has bottled up Iran’s ports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly told the President that the economic pressure is working and could push Tehran toward a deal. The Atlantic reported last month that the administration has weighed renewed strikes after the midterms, with energy infrastructure among the potential targets, according to Iran International.
The Iranian people are already hurting. Food inflation hit nearly 123 percent last month, and the rial has lost roughly 60 percent of its value against the dollar over the past year. The rial is trading at 2.7 million to one US dollar, compared to 1.35 million at the start of the year.
Prices for water, electricity, and fuel nearly doubled compared with last October.
This is where things get interesting— and risky. Cold, hungry populations have a way of losing patience with the people running the country. The regime knows that, which is why its spokesperson is warning the public now, in November, rather than in the dead of January.
Getting ahead of the blame is one of the oldest moves in the authoritarian playbook. Expect every cold apartment in Tehran to be pinned on the Americans and the Israelis, and not on their own mismanagement.
However, Iranians have heard the “dress warmly” speech before, long before this latest conflict started. They know the difference between war damage and decades of mismanagement.
Whether that turns into anything beyond grumbling in the bread lines is a question both Washington and Tehran will be watching all winter. With the bloody putdowns of protests in the past, it would be doubtful that will occur again.
Iran holds the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves. It’s about to spend another winter in the cold. However, the IRGC will not be subjected to cold offices and homes this winter.
The gas is there. It just isn’t reaching the people.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
