Key Points and Summary – China’s navy backs its missile salvos with a fast-expanding “silent service” built for anti-access/area denial.
-The force now fields six Jin-class SSBNs for nuclear deterrence and dozens of attack boats: Shang nuclear subs with VLS for YJ-18 and land-attack shots; quiet Yuan AIP SSKs optimized for long, stealthy patrols; older but numerous Kilos; improved indigenous Song boats; and legacy Mings for coastal defense.
Kilo-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-In a Taiwan fight, submarines would spearhead blockade, sea-denial, and pre-landing strikes while complicating U.S. carrier operations inside the first island chain.
-Quality still trails top U.S./Russian boats, but numbers, AIP stealth, and geography make the PLAN a serious undersea problem.
China’s Submarine Force Is Rising
China believes it can overwhelm a U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group with attacks using long-range ballistic and cruise missiles.
The Americans, for their part, are ready to defend against attacks from the air, thanks to the vaunted Aegis Weapon System, which creates a protective bubble around its surface warships. But aerial attacks are not the only way China can overwhelm the U.S. fleet.
China has an impressive group of submarines that are swift, silent, and deadly.
Some are nuclear-powered, while others are quite stealthy diesel-electric air independent propulsion (AIP) subs. China leans on its anti-access/area denial strategy to keep the U.S. Navy from operating unopposed in the East and South China Seas. Having a group of hunter-killer subs could block the Navy from strategic waters near China.
Some of the Best Sailors in the Chinese Navy Serve on Submarines
Like the United States, China views the submarine force as the right place for its elite sailors. Training is long and arduous. Submarine service personnel stay away from home for months at a time. China sees undersea warfare as a way to be strategic, operational, and tactical all at once. Admirals know they can command a fleet of boats that protects the homeland and brings the fight to the enemy. Policing the sea to protect Chinese borders is the main defensive effort, but China’s subsea program also has aggressive offensive goals.
China is adept at shipbuilding, and its submarine industry is strong. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) takes no shortcuts when it comes to producing some of the most modern boats in the region.
Kilo-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The PLAN’s growing submarine force features six nuclear-powered ballistic missile boats (SSBNs) and 48 diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), 21 of which have AIP.
The PLAN’s Subs Would Be Dominant Against Taiwan
While the PLAN is always concerned about the U.S. Navy, Taiwan sits squarely in the crosshairs of the service’s submarine fleet. Aerial bombardment from submarine-launched guided missiles will prepare the battlefield and clear landing zones during any potential Chinese amphibious attack. The Taiwanese Navy must be neutralized for an amphibious strike to work in the early stages.
The submarine force is also focused on nuclear deterrence. Its six nuclear-powered boats carry nuclear-tipped missiles. They are a newer part of China’s nuclear triad, but will become more important as the years go by.
China can sail its Jin-class boomer boats around the western Pacific and overawe adversaries in its near-abroad. Even modern navies such as Japan and Australia would have difficulty discovering and tracking Chinese SSBNs.
China Nuclear Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Shang-class
The most modern boats of the undersea bunch are China’s Shang-class nuclear-powered attack subs, which are stealthy and feature a new vertical launch system for missiles. Three upgraded Shang-class subs are equipped with YJ-18 anti-ship ballistic missiles, and they hit a top speed of 30 knots underwater.
A new variant of the Shang-class specializes in launching land-attack cruise missiles. These might be able to sneak up and fire guided missiles at U.S. bases in Guam, South Korea, and Japan if called upon.
Yuan-class
China also boasts 21 Yuan-class diesel-electric attack subs. The Yuan-class boats are 254 feet long and can hit a top speed of 20 knots.
Their upgraded torpedoes and missiles are meant to attack surface ships, and the Yuan-class has a Stirling generator-type AIP system.
This allows the fast attack boats to execute long-range patrols while staying queit, making them much better at destroying enemy shipping.
Kilo-class
Another variant of attack subs is the Kilo-class. China bought 12 of these boats from Russia, and they are older and noisier than the Yuan-class.
Kilo-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Russian-built Kilos are known as Project 636, and the more up-to-date version, also from Moscow, is the Project 636M.
Song-class
A much better PLAN attack sub is the Song-class diesel-electric submarine. These boats are 245 feet long with a 22-knot top speed. The Song-class is a homegrown, indigenously built sub based on Russian innovations—the Chinese made them even better.
Song-class boats have an up-to-date, teardrop-shaped hull. Four rudders and a single propeller drive the sub. The engine has noise absorbers and rubber tiles for better stealth. The Song-class can launch precision ballistic and cruise missiles.
Ming-class
Finally, there is the Ming-class—a class of diesel-electric boats that are 249 feet long and can reach 18 knots submerged.
The Mings possess 533-mm torpedo tubes that can also launch cruise missiles. The Mings are Cold War-era boats and are not that impressive. They will probably go into reserve status in the coming years and are only good for protecting China’s shoreline.
China’s Submarine Force Is Getting More Dangerous By the Day
Overall, China’s sub force is decent, but the boats are not as good as submarines from Russia and the United States. China needs to increase the number of its most modern nuclear-powered models, although the AIP-supplied diesel-electrics are quiet and sneaky.
The PLAN can rest assured that it can protect the Chinese coastline and dominate the fight during an amphibious attack against Taiwan. Furthermore, Chinese subs are numerous enough to form a blockade around that nation.
Thus, China has the capabilities for undersea warfare to accomplish strategic objectives against Taiwan and to bolster anti-access/area denial tactics against the United States and its allies.
Look for this submarine fleet to age well and be enhanced in the future.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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