Key Points and Summary – Canada’s plan to buy 88 F-35s is under review, with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government weighing Saab’s counteroffer: assemble JAS 39 Gripens in Canada, transfer technology, and create up to 10,000 high-skill jobs.
-The proposal could leverage firms like Bombardier, CAE, and IMP, and even support exports—potentially to Ukraine.
JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
JAS 39 Gripen Taking Off. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Advocates tout sovereignty, industrial gains, and lower lifecycle costs; F-35 backers point to stealth, allied commonality, and existing Canadian supply-chain work.
-With Swedish political outreach intensifying, Ottawa must balance economics, capability, and geopolitics.
-The decision will signal whether Canada prioritizes domestic industry and autonomy—or sticks with the alliance standard.
Is Canada Ready to Buy Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen Instead of the F-35?
The competition to determine which fighter jet Canada will choose to replace its aging CF-18 Hornet is intensifying. The Canadians have settled on a deal to buy 88 F-35 Lightning IIs from the United States, but that agreement is under review by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government.
In its place, Canada is considering Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen, a high-quality, speedy, and maneuverable jet that, although not fully stealthy, is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter.
Now, Saab, the manufacturer of the Gripen, is sweetening the pot. The Swedish company has long offered the ability for Canada to produce parts and components if Canada selects the JAS 39. But the latest proposal is turning heads.
Saab currently estimates that 10,000 manufacturing and research jobs could boost the Canadian economy if the Gripen becomes the go-to airplane for the Canadian Air Force. This influx may involve building a new factory or retooling an existing one.
The Entire Gripen Could Be Assembled in Canada
SAAB President and CEO Micael Johansson told CTV News that the offer is on the table and Ottawa might see a boost in economic development with the added positions. The deal could be more than just parts and components; Canada may even get the go-ahead to assemble the entire Gripen on its soil.
JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Back in 2017. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Firms like Bombardier, CAE in Montreal, and IMP Aerospace and Defense in Nova Scotia would be part of the deal that could hire the Canadian manufacturing employees who would have a high source of income.
“If Canada wants to create sovereign capabilities and to do their own upgrades, to build parts of it, to do final assembly and test, we are prepared to do that,” said Johansson. “We could do a technology transfer to Canada and support that build up,” CP24 News revealed.
Saab Has the Midas Touch
Saab could choose to make a joint venture with Bombardier, CTV said. The manufacturing could occur within the next three to five years, and Canada could even produce Gripen fighters for Ukraine. This relationship would then be long-term and lucrative with Saab.
Mutual Advantages for Canada and Sweden
Saab believes that with a large order of Gripens from Canada and Ukraine, Sweden would not have enough engineers and technicians to build that many airplanes. Partnering with Canada thus makes sense to meet future global orders. Canada would give the Swedes a jump start in new human capital to operate the production lines.
This puts the ball in America’s court. Canada has already initiated the acquisition process for 16 F-35s with Lockheed Martin. If the air force chooses the Gripen, a training period for Canadian pilots and improved air base infrastructure would be required to accommodate the new aircraft.
But these difficulties can be readily mitigated if the Gripen could be made in Canada. Advanced manufacturing jobs are highly sought after by many governments due to their longevity and the positive ripple effects on other parts of the economy. The Saab offer could be irresistible for Canada.
U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Jacob Taylor, a dedicated crew chief assigned to the 48th Fighter Wing, communicates with an F-35 Lightning II pilot,during Point Blank 22-3, at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, June 23, 2022. Point Blank is a recurring joint training exercise designed to enhance tactical proficiency and interoperability with NATO allies and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Koby I. Saunders)
Sweden is not stopping with interpersonal relationships with the Saab CEO. The Swedish royal family is headed to Canada for a visit from King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia. This type of business diplomacy is unprecedented and demonstrates Sweden’s strong desire to win the bid.
“Of course, I would hope that it would be great for Sweden, for Canada, and for Europe to have Canada on board with deeper relationships on security and defence-related business,” says Johansson. “But it’s up to Canada. We are not campaigning, we have been asked questions, and we are providing information for Ottawa, to make the decision.” CTV reported.
This Is the Cherry on Top of the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen Offer
Could this be the effort that prompts the Canadians to finally opt for the Gripen instead of the full order of 88 F-35s? There are existing Canadian suppliers of the Lightning II. Avcorp Industries (outboard wings), Stellia (weapons bay door parts), and Magellan Aerospace (horizontal tails) are examples of important jobs. Still, the Swedes’ offer would eclipse the economic impact from F-35 sales.
What Can the Americans Do Now?
The United States is likely blanching at the Swedish largesse. To match Saab, Lockheed Martin would have to allow some F-35s to be built in Canada. That’s not going to happen. President Donald Trump would have to quickly fly to Ottawa and do some prime persuasion to push for the Canadians to buy the F-35.
The president has instead irked the Canadians with blustery talk that includes comments that the Great White North should be the “51st state” – not to mention the tariffs he has slapped on Canada. Some Canadian tourists are refusing to visit the United States.
Lockheed Martin is likely exasperated with the Canadians by now. It cannot match the Saab offer. This is a substantial order that hangs in the balance, and time is wasting. The review process for the deal was expected to be completed by the end of the summer. Now it could be pushed into next year, or Carney could announce the Canadian-Swedish partnership during the royal visit.
This may finally be the breakthrough that Saab needs to cement a Gripen deal. It is good business practice from the Swedes, who are not known for being this aggressive in commerce. But you have to give the country credit for not giving up and pulling out all the stops.
What can Lockheed Martin do? They could reduce the price of the remaining F-35 build-outs. That’s not good for the bottom line or profit margins. They could implore Trump to make personal overtures or extol the virtues of a stealth airplane that many NATO members also fly.
We have been covering the Canadian F-35 saga extensively throughout the year. It is an interesting case study that will likely be studied in business schools once it is completed.
This is an example of geopolitics, deal sweeteners, economic development, trade wars, and comparative quality that can push a country to buy major military hardware. Let’s see if the Canadian government goes with the Gripen. That would be a punishing blow to Lockheed Martin and the Trump administration.
They would have to watch the Swedes and Canadians uncork the champagne bottles in celebration.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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