Key Points and Summary – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is rejecting any great-power deal on Ukraine that sidelines Kyiv or Europe, warning that Vladimir Putin has no way to leave the war “successfully.”
-Merz argues Russia could end the conflict “within minutes” and insists only Ukraine and Europe can decide on a lasting peace.
Putin Reading a Statement. Image Credit: Russian Government.
-He seems to be backing using more than $200 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s war effort and reconstruction, including major fighter purchases such as Gripens and Rafales.
-Berlin plans to boost aid to €11.5 billion in 2026, aiming to convince both Kyiv and Moscow that Europe is fully committed.
Putin’s Trapped War: How Merz Wants Russian Assets to Pay for Ukraine’s Victory
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – Breaking with the practices of the last German Chancellor from his party, Angela Merkel, the current occupant of the office, Friedrich Merz, has laid out a stark and unhappy future for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Russian leader must accept that he has no option but to end the war in Ukraine successfully, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Wednesday.
Exiting the war without some tangible goal that he can sell to his elites as some margin of victory could mean the end of Putin’s rule, “and he knows it,” said a long-time Russian political analyst who is retired from the US Army.
Other close observers of Russia who have spoken to major US media outlets also expressed doubt that Putin is ready to accept the deal now being offered by the US Donald Trump Administration and his European counterparts.
The same analysts also say that Putin still believes he can win the war outright and therefore sees little if any need to compromise.
However, rather than trying to “understand” the Russian leader or engineer a face-saving exit for him as Merkel has been criticized for in retrospect, Merz is being brutally straightforward about the position Putin and his Kremlin entourage find themselves in.
Telling It Like It Is on Ukraine War
“We want this war to end as quickly as possible,” Merz said in the Bundestag, which is the lower chamber of the German national parliament.
“But an agreement negotiated between great powers without the consent of Ukraine and without the consent of the Europeans will not be the basis for a genuine, sustainable peace in Ukraine,” he stated.
Vladimir Putin of Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“Decisions about European matters can only be made by mutual consent,” Merz added. “Ukraine is not a pawn, but a sovereign actor for its own interests and values.”
He also discussed the need for solidarity between the European nations and with the US for the simple reason that “without the consent of Ukraine and without the consent of the Europeans, there will be no basis for a genuine, lasting peace in Ukraine.”
Merz also reiterated what many of his European colleagues had stated previously.
Namely, that Russia could end the war within minutes if it genuinely wanted to, and it is the only aggressor in this conflict.
The German leader then declared Germany would continue supporting Ukraine “for as long as possible.”
In another shifting position among the allies, Merz is siding with a growing number of voices who are clamoring for over $200 billion in Russian frozen assets that sit in European banks – primarily in Belgium – be made “available for this purpose” of supporting Ukraine financially to continue the war effort, as well as to re-build the massive destruction done to its cities by the war.
Convincing Putin He Cannot Win
Providing these frozen assets to Ukraine would be an essential boost financially, but it would be even more so psychologically.
Not only would it convince Ukraine that the whole of Europe is behind them, said the former US Army Russian analyst, “but it would also prove to Putin that Europe and the US are against him as well.”
For Ukraine to emerge victorious, these vast sums of money are necessary to support the war effort.
Ukraine has recently signed contracts to purchase up to 150 Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft and 100 Dassault Rafale aircraft from France.
To keep purchasing ammunition to sustain the war effort and other significant expenditures, the ability to acquire these big-ticket items can probably only become affordable if Kyiv seizes billions of dollars’ worth of Russian assets.
“Putin must realize that he has no chance of winning this war at the expense of the European order of freedom and peace,” Merz says.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday he was ready to advance the US-backed set of points proposed as the basis for ending the war with Russia.
He has said that the points in dispute must be discussed with US President Donald Trump, but that these talks should include European allies.
To keep pressure on Russia, Germany will increase financial aid to Ukraine to 11.5 billion euros ($13.31 billion) in the 2026 budget, up from the €8.5 billion previously planned.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
