Key Points and Summary – AUKUS was sold as a game-changer: U.S. and U.K. nuclear-powered subs for Australia, a tougher deterrent against China, and a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
-On paper, it’s brilliant.
SSN-AUKUS. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-In practice, it runs straight into U.S. industrial reality.
-American yards are already struggling to build and maintain their own attack and ballistic-missile submarines, short roughly 140,000 skilled workers and years behind on key programs.
-Australia has sunk billions into infrastructure and planning, but the U.S. may not be able to deliver hulls on time—or at all—without a massive, sustained shipbuilding surge Washington has yet to prove it can execute.
AUKUS Sounds Great In Theory, But How Feasible Is It In Practice?
The Royal Australian Navy has a highly capable submarine force, including an authorized manpower of 500 sailors, and six Collins-class diesel-electric boats. These six subs, along with Force Element Group Headquarters, are located at HMAS Sterling on Garden Island near Perth, in Western Australia.
However, as competent as the Collins-class and their crews are, the hulls are starting to show their age; they were commissioned between July 1996 and March 2003.
Virginia-Class Submarine Cut Out. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Enter Australia’s two biggest allies, the United States and United Kingdom. Washington and London came to the aid of Canberra’s undersea service by sealing the trilateral AUKUS pact. The agreement sounds great in theory, but there are lingering concerns about its feasibility in practice—especially when it comes to the United States’ logistical ability to deliver what is promised.
AUKUS Basics and Backstory
The AUKUS security partnership was initially announced on Sept. 15, 2021.
It is intended to “promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable.”
The primary pillar of the pact is to support Australia acquiring conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), with the end goal being the SSN-AUKUS hunter-killer submarine.
SSN-AUKUS would replace not only the Collins-class subs, but the British Royal Navy’s Astute-class boats as well. That pillar also calls for the rotational basing of U.S. and British SSNs in Australia.
Along the way, a bit of a diplomat ruckus was generated when French submarine sales were pushed out by the deal. The dissatisfaction from Paris is quite understandable, especially in light of the French Navy’s own highly impressive submarine force that includes Le Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines and Suffren-class SSNs.
Challenges for AUKUS (Especially the “US” Portion)
The biggest challenge is a lack of manpower.
The U.S. is desperately short of the estimated 140,000 skilled workers needed to build new undersea boats for the U.S. Navy’s own use—let alone produce submarines for sale to the Aussies.
The Navy since November 2022 has pushed to recruit workers for the shipbuilding industry via the BuildSubmarines campaign, which is sponsored by the Department of the Navy in tandem with the BlueForge Alliance.
As the mission statement declares, “The Navy is on a once-in-a-generation journey to completely transform its nuclear-powered submarine fleet and maintain its critical undersea advantage…And there’s not a moment to spare.”
The Virginia-class attack submarine USS Virginia departs for a six-week underway. During this deployment, Virginia will undergo an Operational Reactor Safeguard Examination and a Tactical Readiness Evaluation to assess the submarine’s reactor along with its capacity to combat casualties through damage control.
The numbers illustrate the urgency. U.S. submarine production is averaging only 1.3 completed hulls per year. Moreover:
–Only 23 of the original 62 Los Angeles-class subs remain in service, and three more (the USS Scranton (SSN-756); USS Alexandria (SSN-757); and USS Annapolis (SSN-760)) are proposed for retirement between 2026 and 2027.
–Virginia-class SSNs are coming online at a slow pace—24 are active out of 69 planned, with 10 more under construction—and the would-be SSN(X) class is facing an uncertain future.
–The Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines were built between 1976 and 1997 and are reaching the end of their service lives. Their intended successors, the Columbia-class warships, are running 12-16 months late and nearly $350 billion over budget.
Moreover, there are concerns that the Trump administration’s “America First” approach, which prompts tighter tech-transfer rules and new cost-sharing demands, could endanger the AUKUS deal. This is a very pressing concern considering that the Australian government has already spent more than $1 billion and pledged $8 billion for a Perth maintenance hub
A Possible Solution?
The U.S. naval brass has set a lofty goal of building three submarine hulls per year—one Columbia-class and two Virginia-class—by 2028, via the 1+2+Sustainment by 2028 plan. “Sustainment” here refers to foreign military sales obligations such as AUKUS.
That sounds like an awfully tall order, especially since BuildSubmarines is a long way from achieving its recruiting goals. Nonetheless, Rear Adm. Jonathan Rucker, program executive officer, attack submarines, was optimistic during remarks at last years Naval Submarine League’s Annual Symposium and Industry Update. According to Rucker, “We developed [the plan] starting in February of 2023, the foundation of which is Columbia, the ‘number one priority
“The whole system has to be uplifted. We’re on that journey. We’re about halfway there, and we’re going to continue to get there.”
Time will tell. The submariner communities in the United States and Australia will have to keep their fingers crossed in the meantime.
(July 25, 2006)- The Australian Submarine HMAS Rankin (Hull 6) and the Los Angeles Class attack submarine USS Key West (SSN-722) prepare to join a multinational formation with other ships that participated in the Rim of the Pacific exercise. To commemorate the last day of RIMPAC, participating country’s naval vessels fell into ranks for a photo exercise. RIMPAC includes ships and personnel from the United States, Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, Peru, the Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom. RIMPAC trains U.S. allied forces to be interoperable and ready for a wide range of potential combined operations and missions. Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group are currently underway on a scheduled Western Pacific deployment. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist Seaman James R. Evans (RELEASED)
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
