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The Treaty

Turkey’s Gulf Tour and Erdogan’s Gaza Ambitions are Dangerous

Turkey
Image Credit: Creative Commons.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues his campaign to expand Turkey’s influence across the Middle East.

Last week, he wrapped up a rapid tour of Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, aiming to secure trade, investment, energy, and defense deals.

But beyond commercial agreements, Erdogan’s top priority was to rally Arab backing for his proposal to deploy Turkish troops as part of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza—an initiative tied to the peace process that followed the recent Hamas–Israel ceasefire.

Pro-Hamas

Since Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel in 2023, Erdogan has sought to position himself as the Muslim world’s loudest critic of Israel. What began as a condemnation of Israel’s actions soon evolved into a full-throated defense of Hamas.

Unlike most Arab and Western states, Erdogan openly refused to denounce the October 7 massacres and has portrayed Hamas as the “Mujahideen” fighting for liberation.

In doing so, Turkey stands alone within NATO as the only member to openly embrace a US- and EU-designated terrorist organization.

Ankara’s patronage of Hamas is well documented: offering sanctuary to its leaders, granting diplomatic access, and allowing the group to fundraise, recruit, and plot attacks from Turkish soil—including an attempted assassination of an Israeli cabinet minister. Despite this record, Erdogan now insists on deploying Turkish troops to Gaza under a US-led stabilization plan and demands that Turkey be designated as a “guarantor” for the Palestinians in any two-state framework.

Pushing a Two-State Agenda

Erdogan’s Gulf trip was meant to gather support from smaller Arab states for these ambitions.

Qatar, a long-time partner and fellow Hamas backer, remains central to Ankara’s plans. Doha hosts Hamas’s external leadership and continues to claim that this arrangement facilitates mediation rather than sponsorship. In Oman—Erdogan’s final stop—both sides reaffirmed their commitment to a two-state solution.

Yet Erdogan’s maneuvering is unlikely to succeed. Israel has made clear that Turkish troops will not be allowed into Gaza under any circumstances. Even the Turkish NGO already operating there—the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH)—faces controversy due to its links to Muslim Brotherhood–affiliated and sanctioned jihadist networks.

Other Arab powers, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, wary of Erdogan’s agenda, also oppose any Turkish role in Gaza.

Israel’s Stance

Israel’s concerns are straightforward: if Hamas refuses to disarm, Turkish forces could effectively protect and rearm the terrorist group, ensuring Hamas’s continued control of the enclave. Erdogan’s record of embracing Hamas, combined with his bid to insert Turkish forces into Gaza, makes his “peace” plan less a stabilizing effort than an attempt to legitimize a terrorist client under the guise of diplomacy.

Harboring Terrorist Leaders

Oman is also no impartial actor. Muscat portrays itself as a neutral actor and consistently reminds US officials of its role in hosting secret nuclear talks and brokering back-channel diplomacy. At the same time, it provides sanctuary to the Houthis, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, by hosting their chief negotiator and de facto Foreign Minister, Mohammed Abdul Salam.

American policymakers have repeatedly pressed Oman to expel Houthi leaders, arguing that their presence serves as a critical pillar of Iran’s regional strategy. The Houthi HQ in Muscat has become a hub for meetings with Iranian officials and for planning military operations in Yemen.

The Houthi presence in Oman has facilitated the smuggling of weapons, finances, and illicit goods to sustain Houthi operations. Since 2015, Oman has served as a key transit hub for Iranian arms shipments to the Houthis. A 2016 Reuters investigation detailed the use of Omani land routes—including the Dhofar province and its islands—as conduits for Iranian weapon shipments. The Houthis have further established financial footholds in Oman, with investments exceeding $1 billion, including a $400 million stake in an investment bank in Muscat.

Oman has played the mediator card to justify the Houthis’ presence on their soil, but the Houthis have leveraged their office in Muscat to expand their military capabilities. Emerging as the first terrorist group to wield ballistic missile power. The consequences have been dire, with an escalation of instability in the Red Sea and a direct challenge to US security.

Indeed, a country that has enabled a terrorist organization responsible for repeated attacks on Israel and US interests should have no role in discussions about post-war Gaza. Omani officials have previously expressed support for Hamas, a sentiment that the terrorist group reciprocated by displaying the Omani flag during a hostage release ceremony in February 2025. Suppose there is to be a path to a credible peace process.

In that case, the United States, which took the initiative in drafting the proposed roadmap, should make a point of including states that have not exclusively coddled terrorist actors and exacerbate the continuity of conflict in the region.

About the Authors:

Sinan Ciddi is senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C., where Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst. You can follow Sinan on X at @SinanCiddi and Ahmad at @ AhmadA_Sharawi.

Sinan Ciddi is senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C., where Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst. You can follow Sinan on X at @SinanCiddi and Ahmad at @ AhmadA_Sharawi.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. EMIP

    October 29, 2025 at 10:01 am

    The author, Sinan Ciddi, fails to mention that of the 193 countries that are member states of the UN, 154 nations recognize Hamas. Only Israel, US, Australia, Canada, UK and the EU have designated Hamas as a terrorist organization. Japan and New Zealand have designated just the military wing of Hamas, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (which carried out the October 7 attack on Israel) as a terrorist entity. That the political wing of Hamas which Türkiye maintains relations with was and still is, at least for the time being, the legal government of Gaza, having been democratically elected in the 2006 elections.

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