Key Points and Summary
-Despite President Trump’s repeated promises to end the war in Ukraine, the conflict is no closer to a resolution.
-While diplomatic channels are more open than before, Russia’s “maximalist demands”—including territorial seizures and Ukrainian neutrality—remain unacceptable to Kyiv and its allies.
-Moscow appears to be playing a long game, weathering sanctions and continuing its offensive, believing it has “solved the Trump problem” and can outlast Western resolve.
-With no real diplomatic breakthroughs and little appetite in Washington for deeper involvement, a protracted war of attrition seems the most likely outcome.
The Ukraine War Won’t End Soon
Donald Trump has been back in the White House for eight months, but the conflict he promised to end plows on.
The president’s vow to end the war in Ukraine in just a day shows no sign of coming to fruition.
Trump has repeatedly assured allies and voters that peace was just around the corner. He has issued “two-week” deadlines for Vladimir Putin to act in April, May, July, and again in August. The US president even confided to French leader Emmanuel Macron in a hot-mic moment that Putin “wants to make a deal for me.”
Two weeks later, he admitted his “disappointment” in Moscow. Such oscillations highlight both Trump’s faith in his own deal-making abilities and the risk of wishful thinking in the face of an entrenched war.
Dead-End Diplomacy
Diplomacy has indeed advanced further this year than during the Biden era.
Washington has opened direct channels with Moscow, and Russia and Ukraine have carried out prisoner swaps. Kyiv, once adamant about reclaiming every inch of its territory, has floated the idea of a ceasefire that would leave parts of Ukraine under Russian occupation.
But the Kremlin’s maximalist demands mean neither Ukraine nor its western allies are keen to approve them. Putin’s government wants the neutrality of Ukraine, strictures on Western aid, and seizure of territory it has not achieved military control over. Exiled Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov stressed to Vox magazine that Putin sees this war as an existential fight for his regime, against the Western cultural milieu.
The Stumbles…
Meanwhile, European states are mulling over possible permanent security guarantees for Ukraine, even if it is not allowed into the NATO fold. The US has suggested it could partly support such moves, even without vowing to deploy boots on the ground in Ukraine. Trump has already swung America’s economic weight around, rolling out harsh tariffs on India for continuing to purchase oil from Moscow.
Unfortunately for Washington, this seems to have warmed relations between New Delhi, Moscow, and Beijing for now. Despite all this, Trump has not retaliated to the lull in peace talks by inflicting further sanctions on Russia itself- despite a slew of new penalties being ready for the White House’s sign-off.“Putin thinks he has solved the Trump problem,” said Former US ambassador John Herbst, noting that Moscow continues its offensives without significant American pushback.
Russia knows well how to operate in a war of attrition. It is not a democratic system where citizens can peacefully express discontent with the government, should they dislike the direction of the conflict. Moscow has also grown used to the economic strain of sanctions.
Russia also has more men and more ability to mobilise them than Ukraine. If the West decided to intervene, it would be a different question, but there is little political appetite for that at present, especially in Washington.
What Happens Now? Korean War Ending?
Any peace talks are unlikely to be wrapped up quickly. The Korean War armistice required hundreds of meetings; the Good Friday Agreement between the UK and Ireland took nearly two years.
Currently, Trump is grabbing headlines, but no significant diplomatic breakthroughs have been achieved.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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