Key Points and Summary – Russia is advancing block by block into Pokrovsk, a key Donetsk rail hub, while Ukraine battles a stark manpower crunch. Local voices and former officials warn of encirclement risk and urge a withdrawal before it’s too late.
-Kyiv is reportedly shifting units from other sectors, but thin lines persist—some stretches staffed by only a handful of infantry per kilometer.
Ukraine Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Drone swarms and small-unit infiltrations complicate resupply, and desertion/absence cases have spiked.
-Commanders say the situation is “difficult,” though the top brass insists contingencies exist. Even if Russia plants a flag, the gain could be pyrrhic—costly, exposed, and hard to exploit.
Ukraine’s Increasing Manpower Problem Seen in Pokrovsk
WARSAW, POLAND – There is a mounting concern among military and civilian leaders in Ukraine over the fierce battle for Pokrovsk, in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are penetrating deeper into the city in a slow but steady, step-by-step advance. Some in Kyiv are calling on Ukraine’s military to pull out of the fight before the remaining units there are encircled and it becomes too late to call for a withdrawal.
“Despite the official bravado, the situation is more than complicated and less than
controlled,” former Deputy Defense Minister Vitaliy Deynega wrote on his Facebook page. Deynega is the founder of Come Back Alive, a Ukrainian foundation originally formed in 2014 after the initial invasion of the Donbas region.
Ukraine Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
Ukrainian forces, Deynega said Nov. 4, “need to get out of these cities while it is possible.” He is only one of an increasing number of public figures making a similar demand.
The fight is raging around the two cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which were collectively home to some 100,000 people before Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. Pokrovsk also served as a major logistics hub for the Ukrainian military until 2024.
Ukraine’s military is making every effort to hang on to Pokrovsk because its capture by the Russian military could prove to be a strategic blow to the overall defense of the Donbas. Its rail and road hubs could pave the way for a Russian incursion deeper into Ukraine.
Russia’s Relentless Assault
The central dilemma for Ukraine is manpower. Kyiv’s armed forces have been stretched thin for many months now, and soldiers are often fighting on the front for months at a time with no leave or relief.
Atesh reports that military convoys carrying personnel and equipment are moving daily toward Pokrovsk, with troops likely being withdrawn from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia sectors to fill the gap. Intelligence reports from Atesh, the Ukrainian resistance movement in the occupied regions, indicate that Russia’s main combat units and operational reserves have been exhausted.
This is forcing Russia’s military to pull reserves and troops from the frontline in other regions. Thus while Moscow can pull more manpower into the fight around Pokrovsk, it is doing so at the cost of weakness along other parts of the front.
Artem Kariakin, a Ukrainian soldier fighting in the area, told local media: “All of this might have been avoided if we had more people and hundreds, if not thousands, of ballistic missiles. . . . It would probably take a huge number of people to liberate a city of this size, and I just don’t think there are any right now.”
Russian forces have reportedly moved deeper into Pokrovsk and secured positions deep within the frontline city. They have used wave after wave of drone strikes that make it impossible for Ukraine to resupply its own units, while Moscow’s forces creep forward in groups of two or three soldiers at a time.
Manpower Problems
Ukraine has been slowly losing ground to this kind of infiltration due to the simple imbalance of manpower. Moscow has large population centers in the eastern regions that it regularly draws on to mobilize more conscripts.
In contrast, Ukraine has been struggling to replace its frontline brigades, thanks in part to conscription policies that target all able-bodied men between the ages of 25 and 60. But those who are in uniform are currently spread across a long frontline with no depth in defense.
Just four to seven Ukrainian infantrymen guard the average kilometer of the frontline, stated Maria Berlinska, a Ukrainian volunteer with close ties to the military, this past October.
Kyiv has also suffered from an increase in desertions. There were reportedly almost 20,000 cases of absence without leave and desertion opened in October. According to the Ukraine General Prosecutor’s office, this is the highest monthly figure so far this year.
Appearing on Ukrainian television this past Sunday, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said the situation in Pokrovsk was “generally under control” and that the intensity of Russian assaults on the city had decreased.
“Of course, there is a plan B and a plan C, for all scenarios,” he added.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of the Asia Research Centre at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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