$300 Million: The NGAD Fighter Price Tag Just Might Be Too Much

New NGAD Stealth Fighter Program Faces Headwinds: It’s the way the Pentagon, Congress, and defense contractors often work. As soon as one weapons system is online, the next one to improve or replace the old one is on the drawing board, no matter what the price. After the U.S. military has endured the development of the F-35 Lightning II that will cost over $2 trillion throughout its lifecycle, defense hawks are now calling for a new combat aircraft.

The United States is already pumping in ample funds for a sixth-generation fighter program known as the NGAD or Next-Generation Air Dominance.

But with a massive price tag, even the Pentagon seems to be having a bit of a rethink these days.

The Steep Price Tag for the NGAD

The NGAD looks to replace the F-22 Raptor, which has been in service for 20 years. Only 186 of the Raptor stealth war birds are still in service. The problem is that the NGAD could cost up to $300 million a jet. The Pentagon is already spending $28.48 billion over the next four years to make the NGAD a reality.

U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, flies over Kennewick, Washington, during the Tri-Cities Water Follies Airshow Over the River, July 30, 2023. The F-35 Demonstration Team participated in the 2023 Tri-Cities Water Follies airshow and various other events in support of their mission to recruit, retain and inspire new and old generations of Airmen. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)

After enduring the budget-busting F-35 development and retainment cycle, the Pentagon and Congressional lawmakers may wish to slow down on the NGAD program. Three hundred million each sounds like a bridge too far.

Proponents of the NGAD believe that a new fighter needs to be in place to compete with China’s ever-improving stealth combat aircraft.

The NGAD is believed to be the answer to operating in a multi-threat environment with better Chinese air defense capabilities and talented People’s Liberation Army Air Force pilots that could challenge an American or allied F-35.

Time for a Sixth-Generation Fighter

An analyst at the RAND Corporation, Michael Bohnert, told DefenseScoop in June that the NGAD is necessary. “There needs to be a replacement for the F-22, and the [F-35 Lightning] is not it. The F-35 is a strike fighter, the F-22 is an air-superiority fighter. That is something you need to counter adversary bombers, heavier fighters, etc. It’s a mission set that you need something more like the follow-on to an F-22 to do.”

NGAD Artist Photo. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Pause the NGAD Program

That means the NGAD should have better stealthiness, survivability, sensors, weapons systems, and dogfighting capability. Developing such an airplane is not easy, and now the secretary of the Air Force is indeed taking “a pause” on the NGAD program. Secretary Frank Kendall still believes that a sixth-generation fighter like the NGAD is required, and the Air Force needs to think through its design before the price tag gets out of control.

Reading the Political Tea Leaves

Does that mean the NGAD could be cancelled?

Kendall serves at the pleasure of President Joe Biden, and Biden is not running to return to the Oval Office. That leaves challenger Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris to fight for the presidency, and it is not known how those potential administrations feel about the NGAD. Neither candidate is known for fiscal diligence, and one could say that Trump will be more isolationist and war-weary compared to Harris. Kendall could even be retained if the vice president wins the election.

The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee could also flip and give Republican Senator Roger Wicker the gavel. Wicker is a hawk who advocates for more defense spending, so the NGAD program could gain a leg up under Wicker’s chairmanship.

That means the NGAD program has a chance to come to fruition in the coming years, although a “whole of government” approach to developing the new stealth fighter is doubtful. The more likely course of action is to do what Kendall says to do, which is to operate with caution and keep the life cycle costs under control.

To NGAD or Not to NGAD: That Is the Question?

I’m open to exploring the NGAD. A new stealth fighter is needed, although not at $300 million each – especially after the budget-busting F-35 and the relatively short life span of the F-22.

Look for either Harris or Trump to put a continued hold on the NGAD program. Kendall has the right idea – a wait and see approach is necessary. This will require four additional years of experimentation and research and development before a prototype is ready. That means China is relieved that a new American stealth fighter is going to be delayed. Beijing could even try to steal the NGAD plans as they have before with other American fighter programs.

NGAD. Image Credit. Lockheed Martin.

The longer the new airplane is in development with the media reporting on its every move is an opportunity for China to copy it.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood