Key Points – Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on June 1st, which reportedly destroyed or damaged numerous irreplaceable Soviet-era strategic bombers like the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 deep inside Russia, has created a significant, long-term “window of vulnerability” for Moscow’s strategic aviation.
-As these older bombers cannot be replaced with new builds due to long-closed production lines, and Russia’s next-generation PAK DA stealth bomber program faces severe delays (production now unlikely before 2030), the Kremlin will struggle to replenish its diminished long-range strike capabilities for years.
-This attack fundamentally exposes weaknesses in Russia’s airbase security and strategic depth.
Ukraine Strike Could Leave Russia Exposed Until the 2030s
On June 1st, Ukraine launched its most daring and devastating strike of the war so far, surprising analysts, Russia, and seemingly even the White House.
Codenamed Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine’s drone strike hit deep inside Russian territory and disabled a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.
The mission had reportedly been in planning for more than 18 months and was overseen by both the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. Using small drones launched from concealed platforms in Russia, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple Russian airfields, causing damage to aircraft that are critical to Moscow’s long-range strike and nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Among the aircraft reportedly struck by the Ukrainians were Tu-95MS strategic bombers, Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, and Tu-160 supersonic nuclear-capable bombers.
What Damage Was Caused?
The SBU claims that 41 aircraft were hit in total, and that the operation destroyed 34% of Russia’s cruise missile carrier fleet – a staggering figure, if it can be verified. Kyiv also estimates around $7 billion in damage, though Western analysts have placed the figure closer to $2 billion. Given the discrepancy between Ukraine’s claims and Western analysis – a recurring theme throughout the conflict – it’s hard to know exactly how much damage Ukraine caused on Sunday. Independent analyses of the strikes, however, confirm a new reality for Moscow: that its prized strategic aviation assets are no longer untouchable.
Using a combination of video footage and satellite imagery, open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have verified that the attack did cause substantial damage to Russian assets, even if it accounts for only a fraction of what has been claimed by Kyiv. According to a review of data published by analysts, as of the morning of June 2, eight Tu-95 bombers, four Tu-22M3 bombers, and one An-12 transport aircraft were confirmed damaged or inoperable.
Can Putin Replace Them?
Ukraine’s success here lies not just in the distance from which its forces were able to strike, but in the nature of the targets themselves. The aircraft destroyed and damaged were no ordinary military assets, but Soviet-designed strategic bombers that form an integral part of Russia’s nuclear triad. These ageing planes have long underpinned Russia’s nuclear deterrence and, more recently, its long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian cities.
The Tu-95MS, nicknamed the “Bear,” was introduced in the 1950s as the Soviet Union’s answer to the American B-52. Despite being one of the only propeller-driven strategic bombers still in service today, the aircraft has undergone multiple rounds of modernization over the decades. The MS variant, introduced in the 1980s, was retooled for launching cruise missiles – a role it continues to fulfill.
According to Military Balance+, a defense database published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia had approximately 58 operational Tu-95MS bombers before Ukraine’s drone strike. No new models have been built since the production line shut down in 1993. The fleet survives solely through repairs, retrofitting, and life-extension programs.
The Tu-22M3, another aircraft hit in the attack, is a supersonic maritime bomber developed in the 1960s and produced between 1969 and 1993. Its most advanced variant, the Backfire-C, features swept wings and upgraded avionics, and is typically armed with Kh-22 or Kh-32 long-range anti-ship missiles. Prior to the strike, Russia is understood to have had around 54 operational Tu-22M3s, according to the Military Balance+ database.
Also among the damaged assets was the An-12 transport aircraft, a Soviet answer to America’s C-130 Hercules, which entered service in 1959 and was manufactured until 1973. Though not strategically vital like the bombers, it still plays a key role in Russia’s logistics and air mobility.
Not every bomber in Russia’s inventory was destroyed, but between estimates based on open-source intelligence and claims made by Kyiv, it’s clear that a substantial number have been lost. Those that remain are now even more crucial to Russia’s ongoing military campaign. As the war drags on, though, Russia now faces two urgent challenges: protecting the bombers it still has, and replenishing its now-diminished long-range strike capabilities.
In place of new production in recent years, Moscow has focused on upgrading existing airframes. The Tu-95 became the Tu-95MSM, which was fitted with new engines, updated avionics, and enhanced navigation and weapons systems.
The story is the same for the Tu-22M3. Its upgraded variant, the Tu-22M3M, features significant improvements, including modern digital avionics, longer range, and improved targeting. Aerodynamic changes also increased its top speed to Mach 2.05 and increased its range by a third. Years of reporting suggests that Moscow treated the upgraded jets as though they were as good as new, buying the Russian military time to develop new, more advanced planes that could go into service in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
And while these are still Cold War-era frames given a new lease of life, the fact remains that they were and are crucial components of Russia’s air force.
As The Wall Street Journal reported this week, Russia no longer manufactures either the Tu-95MS or Tu-22M3, a fact that makes the question of replacing them difficult for Moscow. Worse? Modern planes under development will not be ready for deployment for several more years.
Bomber Drama: Moscow’s Window Of Vulnerability
As new reports highlight Europe’s potential “window of vulnerability” to Russia and other adversaries, driven by years of underinvestment in defense capabilities, logistics, and equipment, Russia now finds itself facing a strategic vulnerability of its own.
The Kremlin cannot replace the loss of dozens of strategic bombers, and has lost a substantial portion of its long-range strike capability at a time when Ukraine is demonstrating an expanding ability to hit deep inside Russian territory. Kyiv is achieving these impressive new feats not only with drones, but now with long-range missiles, following Berlin’s recent nod of approval for their use on Russian soil.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has not developed a single new long-range bomber – at least, to completion – and has instead focused on modernizing existing airframes. Russia’s first new strategic bomber since the Cold War is the PAK DA (Prospective Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation), which is intended to eventually replace the Tu-95 and Tu-160. According to 2020 reports, three prototypes were expected to be ready for preliminary testing by 2023, with production scheduled to begin in 2027.
More recent reports, however, paint a bleaker picture for Russia. A series of development challenges, in part caused by international sanctions, have delayed the bomber’s first flight to this year, with production now expected to begin sometime after 2030.
But even assuming the PAK DA program remains on track, which is a significant assumption given Russia’s wartime constraints, the first batch is expected to be small and will arrive far later than initially planned. And, given that Moscow now faces the sudden and dramatic loss of aircraft intended to serve as a stopgap solution until then, that initial small order may quickly need to become a much larger one.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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