Key Point and Summary – U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators in Geneva have inched closer to a potential roadmap to end the war, refining Washington’s leaked 28-point peace proposal.
-The emerging framework would reportedly force Kyiv to withdraw from parts of Donetsk, accept Russian control over Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, freeze lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, limit its armed forces, and drop its NATO ambitions in exchange for vague “security guarantees.”
-Moscow, meanwhile, would see major sanctions lifted and a path back toward the G7. European leaders and Kyiv are already pushing back, warning that the plan risks sacrificing Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Western unity.
Are We On the Edge Of A Ukraine Deal?
The United States and Ukraine made meaningful progress towards a potential roadmap to end the war in Ukraine, following several days of intense negotiations in Geneva.
Both governments have described the discussions as constructive and said that they had produced a more “refined” version of Washington’s 28-point proposal.
This document sparked controversy across Europe ever since it was leaked to the press.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that negotiators had made substantial refinements to multiple areas of disagreement, though he stressed that President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would ultimately decide the final shape of the plan.
Rubio also described the Geneva meetings as “highly productive,” adding that the negotiating teams had made a “tremendous amount of progress,” and were still resolving multiple outstanding issues.
Nonetheless, it’s the closest that negotiators have come in four years to securing a deal so far.
The revised framework, which remains unpublished, is already drawing scrutiny, however, mainly because it grants significant concessions to Russia and very little to Ukraine.
Leaked details have so far revealed that Kyiv will likely be required to pull all forces back from parts of Donetsk it currently holds, accept international recognition of Russia’s control over Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, and freeze the lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
The proposal also reportedly includes some limits to Ukraine’s armed forces, and a commitment not to pursue NATO membership – something European leaders have adamantly opposed. In return, Ukraine would be given unspecified “security guarantees.”
Russia, meanwhile, would see major sanctions lifted and be invited back into the G7 fold, normalizing, to an extent, relations with countries that Kremlin officials have repeatedly threatened over the last half-decade.
T-72 Like Those Fighting in Ukraine.
Kyiv has, however, pushed back on some elements of the proposal that they undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
European leaders have signaled that a deal is on the cards, but warned that the U.S. proposal diverges substantially from European ideas of a peace plan in key areas.
Writing on X on Monday, Finnish President Alexander Stubb confirmed that he had spoken to Zelenskyy that same morning, stating that there are still “major issues that need to be resolved.” Specifically, Stubb said that “any decision falling in the remit of the EU or NATO will be discussed and decided by EU and NATO members in a separate track.”
The comment suggests that U.S. efforts could be complicated by European pushback – but ultimately, many such decisions will come down to Kyiv.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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