Throughout all three of his presidential campaigns, President Donald Trump promised to avoid the kind of wars that defined the post-9/11 era. He has long criticized the Iraq War and “forever wars,” arguing that Washington wasted trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives on failed nation-building projects overseas. It is a stance that set him apart from most traditional Republican candidates and turned the party into more of a broad church, winning over voters who may have previously voted Democrat – but then, on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched major strikes against Iran. It has become the largest American military confrontation in the Middle East in years.
For many in the MAGA movement, it felt like a betrayal. Some supporters who backed Trump specifically believed that he would keep the United States out of any war in the Middle East, and subsequently found themselves watching American bombers hit Iranian targets while oil prices skyrocketed and fears of wider regional escalation spread.
President Donald Trump delivers the Commencement address at the graduation ceremony for the University of Alabama, Thursday, May 1, 2025, at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Trump Speaking Outside White House. Image Credit: The White House.
President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a National Day of Prayer event, Thursday, May 1, 2025, in the White House Rose Garden. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
But Trump and his allies insist that this is not Iraq or Afghanistan all over again. The administration’s argument is that the war in Iran is intended to be limited and swift, and that it is strategically necessary. There has been little to no talk of occupation – only rumors that a limited number of marines and soldiers may be deployed on some Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz if that ever becomes necessary. Trump has talked of hitting Iran hard, but he has not explored the possibility of a democratization project in the country and explicitly called on the Iranian people to rise up against the regime the moment the strikes were first announced. And, Trump argues that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons now is essential to long-term American security and would ultimately prevent a much larger war.
“For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” the president said while announcing the strikes.
But no matter how much Trump defends it – or indeed how strong the argument may be – there has been a visible ideological split in the Republican coalition. It is arguably the biggest split seen since Trump entered politics in 2015.
The MAGA Revolt
Among the strongest critics of the war have been Republicans, not just Democrats – and some of them happen to be among the most influential voices on the populist right. Tucker Carlson is one of them. He is the former Fox News host who still commands one of the largest conservative audiences in the country through his independent media platforms. Carlson became perhaps the most prominent public figure representing the anti-interventionist wing of MAGA.
Carlson argued, and still argues, that the Iran conflict is not genuinely in America’s interests, and has even gone as far as calling Trump “more a hostage than a sovereign decision-maker.” It is his strongest public criticism of the president yet.
He’s not the only MAGA media personality who has spoken out about it, and the criticism has extended outside of that world, too. Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned during the conflict, arguing that Iran posed no imminent threat to the United States and criticizing the rationale for the war. And Republican lawmakers, such as Representatives Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson, supported War Powers efforts to limit or halt the administration’s military operations.
(Feb. 15, 2023) U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) flies the battle ensign during expeditionary strike force operations with the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group including the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur (DDG 73). Nimitz Carrier Strike Group (NIMCSG) and Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (MKI ARG) with embarked 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) are conducting combined ESF operations, demonstrating unique high-end war fighting capability, maritime superiority, power projection and readiness. Operations include integrated training designed to advance interoperability between the two groups while simultaneously demonstrating the U.S. commitment to our alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class David Negron)
USS Harry S. Truman Aircraft Carrier U.S. Navy Image.
It means that, for the first time in years, major figures inside Trump’s own political coalition were openly accusing him of betraying one of the central ideological pillars of MAGA itself. One that used to be among the easiest for figures across the Republican broad church to defend.
Republican Voters Still Support Trump
But despite the highly visible backlash among top MAGA figures, polling data suggests the Republican voter base has not abandoned Trump over Iran – at least, yet.
Most national polling throughout the conflict has shown strong partisan divides. Democrats and independents largely opposed military action, while Republican voters remain substantially more supportive of it. NBC polling from February, for example, found that 52% of registered voters opposed military action overall, but Republican voters remained far more favorable toward the campaign than the rest of the electorate. 77% of Republicans and 90% of voters who said they align with MAGA supported the strikes.
But at the same time, polling has also shown broad support for ending the conflict quickly and preventing it from becoming another Iraq-style occupation. A March CBS poll found that 92% of Americans believed the war should end as quickly as possible, while 73% supported permanently ending Iran’s nuclear program.
Many Republican voters, it seems, are willing to support limited military action against Iran while remaining deeply hostile to the idea of another decade-long Middle East occupation.
Trump’s continued influence over the Republican base also remains extraordinarily strong, and the president himself has repeatedly argued that he defines what MAGA actually means – and so far, the polling suggests that Republican voters still largely take their cues from him rather than anti-war commentators or dissident lawmakers.
So is MAGA split? Not yet. While Trump still seems to have control of the party, a protracted war in Iran could well still occur – and if it does, it’ll become increasingly difficult to argue that this isn’t just another Middle East “forever war.”
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
