Russia Is Losing Crimea: Russia has controlled Crimea for more than twelve years now, transforming the peninsula into one of its most heavily fortified military regions and a symbol of President Vladimir Putin’s ambition to restore Russian power. It has even remained a popular tourist destination. But today, Ukraine is steadily dismantling any advantage Russia has over the region, not by storming it with soldiers but by making it difficult for Russia to defend and supply.
In recent months, Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes have plunged Crimea into darkness, causing widespread blackouts and fuel shortages. Its power plants and fuel depots have been hit, its oil infrastructure severely damaged, and supply routes linking Crimea to mainland Russia – and even to the frontline in Ukraine – have been cut. The attacks have left Crimea vulnerable and less strategically valuable to Russia as it stands – and while Ukraine may not be on the verge of reclaiming the territory outright, the dynamics are dramatically different now than they were only a year ago.
T-14 Armata. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Main battle tank T-14 object 148 on heavy unified tracked platform Armata. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Crimea’s Biggest Crisis Since Annexation
For Russia, hiding the impact of Ukrainian strikes is no longer possible. This is most clearly the case in Crimea.
On July 9, Ukrainian drones struck the Saky Thermal Power Plant, one of the peninsula’s key electricity producers. The following day, July 10, Ukrainian forces attacked five electrical substations, before expanding the campaign again on the night of July 13, when drones hit another nine substations as well as the Kuban–Crimea electricity transfer point in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai – a critical piece of infrastructure that supplied power across the Kerch Strait and into occupied Crimea.
The strikes then triggered rolling blackouts across much of the peninsula. Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhayev announced temporary restrictions on electricity usage, saying that the Black Sea Regional Dispatch Center had ordered emergency power cuts to prevent a wider collapse of the grid. Residents were urged to reduce electricity consumption and avoid using high-power appliances – and similar restrictions have continued in the weeks that have followed as repair crews struggle to stabilize the network under pressure from continued Ukrainian strikes.
Days later, the Russian-installed leader of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, acknowledged that there were “no precise schedules” for electricity to return because relevant officials were unable to predict when it would be available. He also warned that the authorities could no longer guarantee the daily sale of gasoline and ordered street lighting to be switched off in every municipality regardless of electricity availability, announcing that generators would also be delivered to communities that had gone the longest without power. At this stage, some of the worst-hit areas of Crimea had been without electricity for more than 12 days.
Generators only work if there is a fuel supply, however, and Crimea has been hit badly in that regard as well. On the night of July 13, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it struck multiple ferries transporting military cargo across the Kerch Strait, along with oil storage facilities. Fuel shortages then became so severe that authorities halted civilian gasoline sales to prioritize emergency services and government vehicles.
For the first time since Russia annexed Crimea, the peninsula is experiencing major and simultaneous disruptions to its electricity supply, fuel distribution and military logistics – and while Russia still has control over the region, the peninsula is now far less useful to occupying forces than it was before.
Why Putin Wanted Crimea
Crimea was never just about occupying one more piece of Ukrainian territory – it was much bigger than that. For Vladimir Putin, it was a defining symbol of Russia’s return as a great power and a stepping stone for future ambitions in Ukraine.
Russia formally annexed the peninsula on March 18, 2014, following the overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, and a heavily disputed referendum conducted under Russian military occupation. Speaking that day, Putin declared that, “In people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia,” describing the peninsula as part of Russia’s shared historical legacy and calling Sevastopol “the birthplace of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.”
Sevastopol provided Russia with a critical warm-water naval base, and the peninsula’s ports and missile sites meant that Moscow could dominate much of the Black Sea and support military operations across southern Ukraine. The airfields proved invaluable, too. Domestically, the annexation became one of Putin’s greatest political victories, pushing his approval rating above 80 percent and popularizing the “Crimea Is Ours” slogan.
Over the following decade, the Kremlin then invested billions of dollars to ensure Crimea would remain permanently under Russian control – a strategy that Ukraine is now steadily unraveling.
The Latest
Overnight into Tuesday, July 22, Ukrainian forces continued their assault on occupied Crimea, reportedly causing power outages in Alushta and igniting significant fires at a major electrical substation located in Yalta.
The attacks continue, and while Russia attempts to repair what is broken, there is no indication that the long-range attacks will end in the near term – meaning Russia’s hold over Crimea could only loosen over time.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
