In recent weeks, the U.S. and its allies have had some success in moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz by finding new routes to circumvent Iran’s control of the crucial waterway, as oil exports from the region have rebounded.
That’s according to an analysis published Tuesday by the Wall Street Journal, which also reported that Iran could seek to halt that progress by military means.
(July 28, 2017) An F/A-18F Super Hornet assigned to Air Test and Evaluation Squadron (VX) 23 approaches the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) for an arrested landing. The aircraft carrier is underway conducting test and evaluation operations.(U.S. Navy photo by Erik Hildebrandt/Released) 170728-N-UZ648-161
(August 1, 2025) The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) approaches the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) for a replenishment-at-sea in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo)
The U.S. Navy and its Gulf allies, the Journal reported, have “become better at fending off or evading” attacks from Iran at the Strait, which has allowed more tankers through. As a result, using the metric of “shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes,” the level was just under 80 percent of the pre-war level as of last week, the newspaper said, citing data from Kpler.
Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 13 million barrels per day, the highest level since February, the Journal said. That matched the level touted this week by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, although another cabinet member, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, placed the number higher, at 15-22 million barrels per day.
Iran, on the other hand, has been unable, due to the U.S. blockade, to move its own oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s stockpiles threatening to run out as early as next month.
Another report Monday, by Al Jazeera, stated that Iran was touting its success in having attacked ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including U.S. Navy vessels.
What Could Come Next
However, this state of affairs does not mean the problem is essentially solved. That’s because, according to the report, Iran could respond with military escalation, including attacks on the energy infrastructure of Gulf nations.
The situation may also be temporary.
The Journal’s report is also similar to one in Axios, almost exactly one month earlier, in which U.S. officials stated that they had found a way to break Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz through such tactics as demining, degrading Iran’s ability to retaliate, and other tricks for getting ships through the Strait.
However, by early September, the sides were once again firing at each other, with Iran claiming on September 9 that it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait.
A military escalation, the Journal noted, could reverberate throughout the region and beyond and wreak havoc on global energy markets.
As of Tuesday morning, Brent crude remained above $103, although the benchmark was down from the level it reached earlier this week.
The Status of Talks
Last week, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, indirect talks were held, with mediators from Qatar going back and forth between the U.S. and Iranian sides, even as their leaders gave speeches to the full Assembly, talking tough about their adversary, including Trump musing over whether to “annihilate” Iran.
Those mediation talks did not lead to any breakthrough that could bring the war any closer to an end, but CNBC reported that those talks continued on Monday, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meeting with the Qatari mediators, who were expected to approach U.S. negotiators on Tuesday.
Iran’s position, according to CNBC and other media reports, is for a ceasefire and an offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. ends its naval blockade, lifts sanctions on oil, and releases frozen Iranian funds, with talks about Iran’s nuclear program starting after that. It’s similar to the failed Memorandum of Understanding reached in June and collapsed the following month, but on a shorter timeline.
The U.S. has made clear that it rejects that offer, as it currently stands. Trump told the Wall Street Journal in a Sunday interview that he was rejecting the ceasefire deal. The same story also said that Trump has told staffers that he expects the bombing of Iran to resume after the midterm elections in the U.S., which are just over a month away, even as Trump said in his U.N. speech that political timing is not a consideration.
The newspaper, however, noted that Trump’s views on the conflict have shifted before and could shift again.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
