“It’s going to be a bloodbath!” That’s what pro-MAGA pollster Rich Baris and former Trump attorney (now a critic) Robert Barnes told me in recent interviews about the upcoming Midterms this November. The dominant Republican Party faces three interconnected problems when Americans arrive at the polls (early voting is already occurring in some states).
All of that stems from the unpopularity of the Iran War, the declining U.S. economy (largely due to the unpopular war), perceptions of corruption surrounding the Trump family, and the Trump administration’s failure to properly disclose the Epstein Files to the public.
U.S. Army soldiers assigned to Bravo ‘Bad Bet’ Company, 2nd Battalion, 12th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, conduct Table V exercises with the M1A2 Abrams Tank at Bemowo Piskie Training Area, Poland, July 12, 2024. The purpose of the training is to ensure the Abrams were fully functional and fit to fight. The 1st Cavalry Division’s mission is to engage in multinational training and exercises across the continent, strengthening interoperability with NATO allies and regional security partners, which provides competent and ready forces to V Corps, America’s forward-deployed corps in Europe. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Kali Ecton)
An M1A1 Abrams tank operated by Soldiers with the 2nd Battalion, 70th Armored Regiment, 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, fires over a barricade at the Douthit Gunnery Complex on Fort Riley, Kansas, Oct. 20, 2022. The tank crew was conducting gunnery qualification. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Jared Simmons)
Indeed, the analysis of many former MAGA-friendly pollsters indicates that the Republicans are losing voters in droves because of those three perceived failures. What elevated Trump in 2024 was not piety toward him among voters.
Breaking the Bargain
Instead, many voters made a conditional bargain with President Trump.
When he ran, the American people were also experiencing a turgid economy that felt on the brink of imploding. Add in many Democrats’ unpopular social stances, the Biden administration’s increasingly unpopular foreign policy, and several people came to the Republican Party’s side believing Trump would be the anti-war, pro-prosperity president.
There were many defections from traditional Democrat-leaning voting blocs in 2024, such as among the Latino, African-American, and even Muslim-American coalitions, to help put Trump and the GOP over the edge two years ago. Those voters are leaving (or have left) the Trump coalition in droves.
What’s more, and this is where more pro-MAGA pollsters come into play, as those conditional voters leave the GOP rolls, at least some previously stalwart MAGA voters are leaving too.
For example, at least a portion of MAGA-type voters believe the administration has abandoned the promises that originally attracted them — notably opposition to Middle Eastern wars — and that the Trump administration has walked away from the economic interests of the working class (Trump’s dismissive rhetoric about the affordability crisis is one prominent example of this).
Baris, Barnes, and another MAGA-affiliated pollster, Mark Mitchell, all believe the GOP faces losses that could exceed those of the 2006 Midterms, when Democrats gained 31 House seats and six Senate seats.
In fact, the attorney, Robert Barnes, suspects that if the Democrats gain a majority in the Senate, they might find some angry Republican senators willing to vote to convict and remove Trump from office if an impeachment trial moves forward. That, of course, remains an extreme possibility.
It becomes increasingly likely if enough voters decide they’ve had enough of the GOP (which it seems like we’re slowly moving toward).
Worse Than George W. Bush
Anyway, Trump’s approval rating is a few points below George W. Bush’s (when the country was moving toward the 2006 Midterms). As in the 2006 Midterms, the GOP brand has taken a wallop in recent months.
What the GOP faces today goes beyond an election-day math problem. The party is facing a real coalition crisis. With significant defections to Democrats, Republican abstention from this year’s election, declining confidence in the Trump administration, and deep disagreement over the party’s ideological direction, the “MAGA” coalition that propelled Trump to power a decade ago is fracturing.
The chances of “MAGA” remaining a dominant faction in the GOP after Donald Trump’s peak power were always tenuous at best. After all, Trump and his coalition are seen by the GOP elites as interlopers in their actions.
For the last decade, multiple GOP establishment types have waged a silent war upon Trump and his movement, even as they were shilling for the votes of that coalition. Fundamentally, though, they were biding their time until they could finally discard Trump and fracture his coalition.
That is now happening. But they had little to do with this. It was only because President Trump, like George W. Bush before him, threw away his original opposition to wars of choice and is perceived as having sold out to the financial interests who really run our country.
Now, Americans are hurting.
Losing It All
Each day the price of fuel increases (especially diesel). Americans are paying more for less. Meanwhile, the Trump family and their top advisers are seen as gorging themselves on taxpayer money and leveraging their positions in government for personal enrichment.
If you look at the Polymarket averages, the betting markets clearly believe Republicans will lose the House of Representatives next month and are likely to lose the Senate majority (no matter how slim).
Many should be asking, however, what the Democrats are offering the American people in the future. Right now, the Democrats have played their cards close to their vests. Unlike the first Trump term, where anything the president did prompted a freakout from the Democrats, the DNC has smartly kept its head down, allowing for Trump to implode effectively.
There are few endless social media spats with top-ranking Democrats. Impeachment talk is down (though one can rest assured that impeachment is basically the top Democrat priority for when they return to power).
And there is some confusion as to what, precisely, the official Democrat position is on the Iran War.
Do the Democrats Have a Vision for America?
All this is to say that once they return to power after January 2027, the Democrats will need to do more than spend every day pursuing Trump (though they must pursue both for political and, more importantly, legitimate legal reasons). Going into 2028, Democrats must argue that they offer a fundamentally better, more attainable vision for America’s future.
AOC. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
If President Trump does not remain in office beyond next year and Democrats have no real vision for the future, they will face an entirely new dynamic with President JD Vance. So, if Democrats are serious, they must not just become the “Never Trump” party. They must offer a genuine, hopeful vision for the future; otherwise, their Midterm victory will be meaningless.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
