Donald Trump was elected in 2024 by a unique coalition of groups that seemed unlikely to stay together long-term. Trump earned the support of podcast bros and also the Christian Right.
He did better than usual with pro-Israel Jews and also with Muslim-Americans in Michigan, as well as a half-dozen other similar dynamics.
AOC. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
AOC. Image CNN Screengrab.
In 2024, Trump succeeded in appearing as multiple things to multiple groups. But in his 2024 pitch, Trump was consistent about a couple of things: He would bring costs down from the inflation of the Biden era, and he would avoid new, protracted foreign wars.
Trump even distributed yard signs that read “Trump Low Prices/Kamala High Prices.” And he frequently claimed on the campaign trail that he would not start any new wars.
However, Trump has not delivered on the promises about prices or wars, with gas prices hovering around $4 and Trump involved in a war in Iran that he is showing no signs of being able to pull out of.
And now there are indications that a segment of the right is peeling off from Trump, and it could have big implications for what the GOP coalition looks like once Trump is gone from the political scene.
The Carlson/Greene/Massie Party?
Earlier this month, a group of conservatives, including two former members of Congress and one major right-wing media figure, gathered to muse on the possibility of launching a third-party movement.
Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host who has had a complicated relationship with Trump over the years, has become an independent talk show host in recent years, while diving further into conspiracy theories.
He’s also been a sharp critic of both Israel and of Trump’s war in Iran.
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), formerly one of Trump’s biggest loyalists in Congress, broke with the president in the last year, also over Iran and Israel, and also over the Epstein files.
Greene announced her resignation from Congress earlier this year and has left Washington, although she continues to give frequent interviews criticizing the president.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is another Republican who has frequently bucked Trump, and he was also a leader in Congress on getting the Epstein files released.
Massie lost a primary for his Kentucky seat this spring to a Trump-backed opponent and is finishing out his term.
Politico reported earlier this month that Carlson, Massie and Greene — all of whom supported Trump in 2024 – had huddled at Carlson’s compound in Maine and were “sowing the seeds for a future third-party political organization.” Greene posted a photo of their meeting to social media. Joe Kent, a former national security official in the Trump Administration who also resigned earlier this year with similar objections, joined them.
“We said no more foreign wars, and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise. But he’s betrayed us all,” Greene wrote in the X post. “The movement has begun.”
In a subsequent interview, Kent said other attendees urged Carlson to launch a third-party presidential candidacy in 2028.
What Will Happen? AOC Wins in 2028?
It’s far from clear if Carlson, or any other member of that coterie, will actually launch a bid for the presidency. Greene told Politico, not long after the Maine meeting, that Carlson is not going to run for president, and neither will Greene.
“Our argument is the two-party system is a complete and total failure. … I am 100 percent totally completely disgusted with both parties,” Greene said in that interview.
However, even if there’s no third-party presidential bid, there are indications that a large part of Trump’s 2024 coalition has broken off, in disagreement over Iran, as well as the recent actions of Israel, as well as Trump’s handling of the Epstein matter.
That could mean bad news for the GOP’s hopes of keeping the presidency after 2028. It could put the party in a similar position to where it was 20 years earlier, when the outgoing Republican president, George W. Bush, was also tied to an unpopular Mideast war.
Perhaps someone will run as a Republican in 2028 against foreign wars, putting JD Vance or other establishment candidates in a position to defend a deeply unpopular war. It could even split the GOP coalition and lead to the election of a Democrat—possibly even Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—in 2028.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
