Could President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war in Iran, and the long war that has followed, cost him one or both houses of Congress in the midterm elections next month?
Very possibly. And the president has admitted as much.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 450th mile of the new border wall Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, near the Texas Mexico border. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2022 Student Action Summit at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. By Gage Skidmore.
“Well, it’s possible,” Trump told reporters last week, as The Hill reported. He went on to defend the war because of what he described as the need to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Additionally, the president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, had said on a YouTube show last week that the Iran war could cost Trump the midterms and control of Congress, but that it would have been worth it, because if Iran does indeed obtain a nuclear weapon, it won’t matter who controls the House and Senate.
The president, Lara said, “really hates the way that things have gone with Iran.” She also accused the Iranians of “holding out” on a ceasefire deal until after the midterm elections.
How Bad Will the Bloodbath Be?
Despite redistricting efforts and a major fundraising advantage for the GOP, Democrats are in a strong position heading into the midterm elections on November 3, less than a month away.
According to Nate Silver in his Silver Bulletin newsletter, Democrats now enjoy a 9-point advantage on the generic ballot, their largest lead to date in the current election cycle. That comes from an average of polls, all of which show Democrats ahead.
RealClearPolling, in its average, has Democrats ahead by an average of 8.5 points in the generic ballot, also a high for the cycle.
The Senate map, meanwhile, is starting to tilt towards the Democrats. According to a report in The Hill over the weekend, Democrats lead or tie in several states Trump won in 2024.
According to a New York Times/Siena poll cited by The Hill, Democrats lead by 6 points in Texas, 7 points in Alaska, and 3 points in Ohio, while the races in Iowa and Kansas remain close to a tie. Polling shows Trump is unpopular in all of those states, all of which he won easily in 2024. In Ohio, a state he won three times, Trump’s approval rating is now just 38 percent.
In addition, polls in several states have been moving toward the Democrats in recent weeks, the Times polling said.
The Hill noted that while Democrats are widely expected to recapture the House, the Senate remains a toss-up. But it also listed several issues that are hurting the GOP this year, including Trump’s low approval rating, rising costs, and “an unpopular war in Iran.”
Iran as an Election Issue
Iran is an especially fraught issue for the GOP, since it was a war initiated by Trump and backed by his party. Trump ran in 2024 on promises to reduce inflation and avoid new open-ended foreign wars, and the Iran War represents a breaking of both of those promises- one that candidates in Trump’s party will need to answer for on the campaign trail in the campaign’s final weeks.
Foreign Policy in Focus published a report last Friday about how, while the Iran War has long been seen as a “foreign policy problem,” it has become, heading into the elections, “part of the domestic political argument.” The report said domestic discomfort over the war has blended with concerns about the rising cost of living, especially higher gas prices. Voters also seem to draw a straight line from the decision to go to war to the high prices they pay at the gas pump.
Another important aspect of the midterm elections? If Democrats recapture one or both houses of Congress, they can hold hearings and, with subpoena power, question government and military officials about how the war’s being handled and its costs.
It will also put Democrats in control of the purse strings and give the Trump Administration a harder time when it comes to the funding they want for the war. And while a series of War Powers Act resolutions have failed throughout the year, that could change once Congress’s composition changes.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
