Seven months into this conflict, nobody can say for sure who is running Iran. President Trump keeps repeating it; the latest was on Tuesday. Asked at the White House who was in charge in Tehran after talks were suspended and the latest strikes landed, he answered, “In my opinion, they don’t know who the leader is.”
Trump called Iran a failed nation and said he couldn’t name a person or faction Washington thinks is calling the shots.
B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber July 2025. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
A B-2A Spirit bomber assigned to the 509th Bomb Wing conduct aerial operations in support of Bomber Task Force Europe 20-2 over the North Sea March 12, 2020. Bomber missions enable aircrews to maintain a high state of readiness and proficiency, and validate U.S. global strike capability. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Master Sgt. Matthew Plew)
This is hardly new. Back in March, days after Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader, Trump told reporters the US had no idea who Iran’s leaders were and noted that some people were saying the new leader was dead.
And it was rumored that the younger Khamenei was severely wounded, perhaps killed in the same airstrike that killed his father.
If a diplomatic solution is reached, who signs it will be very important.
The Supreme Leader Nobody Sees
Reportedly, Khamenei, 56, assumed control of the regime after his father was killed in the opening airstrikes on Feb. 28. The Assembly of Experts gave him 59 of 88 votes, with heavy pressure exerted from the IRGC.
However, he has not been seen since.
No public appearance.
No televised speech.
A presenter read his first remarks on air as Supreme Leader.
In August, President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted on state television that communicating with the leader is very difficult. Reports at the time said Mojtaba suffered serious burns and other injuries in the strike that killed his father.
The IRGC is trying to project the regime’s stability, and its efforts have only further exacerbated the situation. The Mehr news agency published an undated video of him looking healthy.
Last week his mother-in-law said she saw him in complete health at his father’s burial.
No photo or recording came with it.
And public photos of the funeral showed no trace of him.
Anyone who has worked in the intelligence field knows the rule.
When a government keeps telling people its leader is fine, people start asking why.
The Guards Fill The Power Vacuum
So who really makes the regime’s big decisions? Follow the man who controls the guns.
Many intelligence analysts believe Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, is running the show.
Kasra Aarabi, who tracks the IRGC for United Against Nuclear Iran, has argued since March that Vahidi is the main power in the regime, and says Western intelligence has since backed that up.
Vahidi is a former Quds Force commander and a sanctioned, ideological hardliner. He’s also wanted internationally.
That’s who is running the war, if not the country.
Running the IRGC is a dangerous business. Qassem Soleimani, the longtime commander of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force, was killed in a US drone strike in 2020.
Mohammad Pakpour, the most recent IRGC chief, was also killed along with the elder Khamenei on Feb. 28. Pakpour replaced Hossein Salami, who himself was targeted and eliminated by Israel during the 12-day war in June 2025.
The elected government is supposed to run everything else.
Pezeshkian has reportedly accused Vahidi and other senior commanders of acting unilaterally, driving escalation with the US further and pushing the economy toward disaster.
Rumors suggest IRGC pressure forced him to put Guards insider Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr in charge of the Supreme National Security Council.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has led the negotiations, has had his own interviews cut by a state broadcaster that Vahidi publicly praised.
That’s three potential power brokers, all fighting for position.
A hidden cleric, an IRGC leader unilaterally acting on his own while tanking the economy, and a civilian government head that can talk a big game but can’t even deliver his own remarks on state-run television.
The real danger is that each of them is trying to exploit the gaps between them.
Analyst Alex Vatanka warned that a peace deal or a decision to keep fighting needs Mojtaba’s explicit approval, and his absence lets rival factions claim to speak for him.
Everybody has a message from the leader. Nobody has the leader.
Why It Matters For Washington
This is the core problem with dealing with this regime.
The MoU died on the same rock. Iran’s diplomats sign, the IRGC ignores it, and Tehran insists the Americans broke it first.
There is no negotiating with the IRGC, so any attempt to get Vahidi to a conference will be wasting time…he won’t.
However, the blockade could squeeze Iran enough that someone breaks ranks from within.
The blockade has Iran’s oil exports near zero, the rial is nearly worthless, and Pezeshkian’s own complaints show the civilian side wants out.
Pressure like that has a track record of regimes fracturing.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, but the IRGC won’t willingly give up its power.
Much like the Praetorian Guard, which did not voluntarily give up its power, they kept it and aggressively protected or expanded it until Emperor Constantine I permanently disbanded them in 312 AD. This is a similar situation.
Until then, Trump’s question is legitimate. Iran has a Supreme Leader on paper, a president on television, and a general with his hand on the trigger.
It is tough to make peace with a regime that isn’t truly united.
About the author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
