Earlier this week, oil prices seemed to be easing, but they jumped again on Wednesday because of several global factors.
As of Wednesday morning, Brent crude was trading just under $102 a barrel, continuing gains from the previous day.
U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (Nov. 23, 2025) Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drones are positioned on the tarmac at a base in the U.S. Central Command operating area, Nov. 23. Costing approximately $35,000 per platform, LUCAS drones are providing U.S. forces in the Middle East low-cost, scalable capabilities to strengthen regional security and deterrence. (Courtesy Photo)
According to Trading Economics, “persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.”
Factors affecting supply include renewed attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and rising unrest in the Persian Gulf, with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia once again moving towards full-on military conflict.
Additionally, following an uncommonly quiet hurricane season this year, a tropical storm is heading towards the Gulf Coast, and such events often affect refining capacity.
The Houthi Factor: The New Problem for Trump Besides Iran
According to CNBC, the conflict between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent days.
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, told CNBC that recent days have made it clear that the oil market is “caught between improving physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk.
A U.S. Marine conducts pre-flight checks on an F-35B Lighting II, attached to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121, on the flight deck of America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7), May 22, 2026. Tripoli is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East. (U.S. Navy photo)
An EA-18G Growler, attached to Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 133, takes off from the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), May 21, 2026. Abraham Lincoln is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East. (U.S. Navy photo)
The Houthis’ ability to attack energy facilities at long range, Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at forex trading platform XS.com, told CNBC, “keeps the risks of a renewed large-scale crude supply disruption present and high.”
Through the Buffer
There’s another oil-related concern: Dwindling stockpiles, in which, per Reuters, the nation’s oil reserves are all beginning to run low, to the point where the world has “nearly burned through its oil stockpile buffer,” the news outlet said.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Saudi Aramco, said at a conference this week that the world has 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories, “with the vast majority not practically available.” More than 1 billion barrels have been released so far this year.
Nasser went on to call those stockpiles “scarily thin.”
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 800,000 barrels last week, Yahoo Finance reported, citing newly released data from the U.S. Department of Energy.
The SPR, previously tapped by the Biden Administration after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now sits at 283 million barrels, down from 283.77 million a week earlier.
G7 leaders recently announced plans to release up to 100 barrels of oil and diesel over the next four months. That release, the leaders said, will include a “frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners.” They also agreed not to limit fuel exports.
A Gas Tax Suspension?
President Donald Trump is facing political pressure ahead of the midterm elections, with ongoing worries about the cost of living, including gasoline prices, threatening to hurt his party in November.
Per Bloomberg News, Trump is considering a Hail Mary move ahead of the midterms: suspending the federal gas tax.
A reporter asked the president on Tuesday if he’s considering suspending the gas tax, and he answered, “Well, we’re thinking about that.”
Trump has been known to say “we’re thinking about that” or “we’re looking at that” as a fudge when he’s asked about a specific action, but he’s also sometimes taken untraditional suggestions from fans or supporters and put them into practice.
Trump has suggested gas tax suspensions before but has never followed through, although in recent weeks some states have passed such suspensions, which have affected the national average for gas prices.
However, passing a federal gas tax suspension would require an act of Congress, and Congress is currently in recess, with members of both houses out campaigning.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced legislation in the spring to suspend the federal gas tax for 90 days, but the proposal never moved forward.
Even if it had passed, it would have expired by now.
No such suspension has ever passed at the federal level, although it’s been proposed at various times when gas prices have been higher than usual.
As Yahoo Finance noted, suspending the gas tax would starve the government of billions of dollars in revenue and create a price shock—and a likely political price to pay for the politicians seen as responsible—when the suspension ends.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
