The Clue: President Donald Trump’s pre-midterm approval rating dropped to its lowest level since 1946 this week, according to a poll tracking the race, less than two weeks before the elections.
According to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena University, Trump’s approval rating is currently 34%—the lowest pre-midterm approval rating since President Harry S. Truman received 33% eighty years ago.
Trump Can’t Stop What Looks Like A Disaster
Barack Obama. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
President Trump’s approval rating currently sits 3 points lower than President George W. Bush’s rating going into the 2006 midterm elections twenty years ago. That election, a disaster for the Republican Party, gave Democrats both the House and Senate—ending more than 10 years of Republican rule and setting the stage for President Barack Obama’s victory over John McCain just two years later.
Trump is Less Popular Than Joe Biden Was Going Into the 2022 Midterm Elections
According to the New York Times poll, Trump is also less popular than President Joe Biden was going into the 2022 midterm elections.
Despite polling at 41%—a full 7% higher than Trump’s current approval rating—Biden and the Democratic Party lost the House to Republicans, then lost both the Senate and the White House to Trump in 2024.
At the same time in 2018, Trump polled considerably higher, with a 42% approval rating that put him on par with President Obama in 2014 and President Ronald Reagan in 1982.
President Donald J. Trump addresses the nation on the South Asia strategy during a press conference at Conmy Hall on Fort Myer, Va., Aug. 21, 2017. (DoD photo by Army Sgt. Amber I. Smith)
However, even at that figure, Trump and the Republican Party still went on to lose the House to the Democrats, opening the president up to his first impeachment a little over a year later.
Every President Under 39% Has Lost Both the House and the Senate
Since World War II, every U.S. president who polled under 39% ahead of the midterms lost both the House and Senate to the opposing party.
In 1946, President Truman lost both the Senate and the House to the Republicans after receiving an approval rating of just 33%.
In 2006, President Bush lost both the Senate and the House to the Democrats after receiving a 37% approval rating.
One Problem For Democrats – They’re Even Less Popular
While Trump’s cratering popularity is bound to be welcome news to the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, there is a problem — at present, the Democratic Party is even more unpopular than Trump and the Republicans.
Only 28% of voters told the New York Times they were “satisfied” with the current state of the Democratic Party, compared with 36% who said they were pleased with the Republican Party.
Many of those displeased with the Democratic Party are Democrats themselves, with almost half (43%) of Democrats expressing dissatisfaction with the party in the current political climate.
Trump’s War Against Iran Has Proved Deeply Unpopular With Voters
While Trump was elected on a platform of lowering the cost of living, bringing down gas prices, and ending foreign conflicts, since the onset of the president’s war against Iran — and its subsequent economic effects — a majority of voters no longer trust the Republican Party on any of those issues.
55% of voters said they would trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to do a better job lowering the cost of living.
Just 40% said they would trust the Republicans. 53% versus 39% said they would trust the Democratic Party over Republicans to lower gas prices, while 51% versus 41% said they would trust the Democrats over the Republicans to handle foreign wars.
A majority of respondents, likely American voters, also trusted the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party on corruption, health care, artificial intelligence, and the economy in general.
While Republicans received their highest level of support on immigration, the Democratic Party also came out slightly ahead, with a 4% lead.
A Pew Research Center survey found this month that roughly two-thirds of Americans disapproved of the way Trump was handling his war against Iran, which is about to enter its eighth month.
Just 14% of Americans strongly approved of the president’s handling of the conflict, with higher gas prices the biggest concern.
About the Author: Charlie Nash
Charlie Nash is a journalist and author whose work has appeared in The Spectator, Mediaite, New Statesman, and the American Conservative, among other major publications. His reporting has been featured by The Washington Post, Fox News, the Daily Beast, MS NOW, NewsNation, Hannity, and more. You can follow Charlie on X at @CharlieNash and on LinkedIn.
