A Republican defeat in Tuesday’s midterm elections will push President Donald Trump “to focus more on domestic issues” over foreign conflicts, according to Omid Memarian, a senior Iran analyst at the Washington think tank DAWN.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW) on what the White House might have planned in its Iran war following the elections, Memarian suggested that a “blue wave” Democratic Party victory — a likely scenario, according to the polls — would change Trump’s priorities for the rest of his second term.
President Donald Trump signs executive actions to support the coal industry at an Unleashing American Energy Executive Order event, Tuesday, April 8, 2025, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order alongside Kid Rock in the Oval Office, Monday, March 31, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
According to DW, Memarian claimed that “a Democratic victory would push Trump to focus more on domestic issues and would likely expose the financial costs of the war in the U.S. Congress.”
Memarian went on to suggest that Trump would be more focused on seeking an exit from the conflict that “saves face” following a Republican defeat; however, he could continue with limited strikes against Iranian targets, like the U.S. military has been doing in recent weeks in secret.
“Iran’s leaders need to think about their endgame,” he said, noting that Trump could end up launching a huge attack against Iran before declaring victory.
Former Trump ally Tucker Carlson warned on Sunday that Trump was considering carrying out a nuclear attack against Iran following the midterm elections, citing an unnamed official with knowledge of the situation.
A Republican Defeat Could End Up Being Good News for Trump’s MAGA Base
Several prominent former allies of the president have called out Trump in recent months for focusing more on foreign conflicts than domestic issues, such as the increasing cost of living, gas prices, and immigration.
If Memarian’s prediction is true, then a Republican defeat in the midterm elections could end up being good news for much of Trump’s MAGA base.
Even before the president launched a war against Iran, 51.7% of Americans believed Trump was too focused on foreign affairs.
“You are never going to convince Americans that whatever is going on in Israel or whatever is going on in Eastern Europe is more important than whether or not they can afford eggs at the grocery store,” said pollster Richard Baris last year, months before the Iran war. “We all understand how much the president’s role is steeped in foreign policy. But the bottom line here is, they elected him for the domestic agenda… and if they don’t hear this message soon, it’s gonna get even less pretty than it is right now.”
Trump’s Approval Rating Has Dropped to Rock Bottom
Since Trump’s war against Iran and its economic consequences, his approval rating has dropped even further, with several three-time Trump voters telling the Washington Post that they would either vote Democrat in the midterms or skip the elections altogether.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll placed Trump’s approval rating at just 32% this week — a 15-point drop from his inauguration in January 2025 and an 8-point drop since the outbreak of his war against Iran.
46% of voters also preferred the Democratic Party over the Republican Party, versus just 38% for the Republican Party.
Republican voters also told Reuters that they were deeply unenthusiastic about turning up to vote. Just 33% of Republicans said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms, compared with 49% of Democrats.
Pollsters and Analysts Bracing For a “Blue Tsunami”
Political scientist Larry Sabato is just one of many analysts predicting a “blue wave” Democratic Party victory in the midterm elections on Tuesday.
“The voters we’re hearing from in a variety of ways tell us they can’t make ends meet,” said Sabato. “They’re most concerned about inflation and the high cost of living. Some have said it’s the worst they’ve ever experienced.”
Political analyst Nate Silver, meanwhile, predicted a “blue tsunami,” suggesting that the outcome of the midterms could signal the “end of the Trump era.”
Trump Vows to Become “Mr. Veto” Should Republicans Lose Midterms
Trump has vowed to become “Mr. Veto” should the Republican Party lose both the House and the Senate on Tuesday.
“I’ll become Mr. Veto,” he threatened. “They’ll be sending stuff up. You veto it. And eventually, after a month or two of getting all vetoed, they’re just wasting time, they come over, and you make a deal.”
Trump concluded, “I think that probably would happen, but hopefully we don’t have to worry about that.”
About the Author: Charlie Nash
Charlie Nash is a journalist and author whose work has appeared in The Spectator, Mediaite, New Statesman, and the American Conservative, among other major publications. The Washington Post, Fox News, the Daily Beast, MS NOW, NewsNation, Hannity, and more have featured his reporting. You can follow Charlie on X at @CharlieNash and on LinkedIn.
