On Tuesday afternoon, the House of Representatives voted to refer the impeachment inquiry against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to committee, effectively killing the measure for the remainder of the lame-duck session. Hegseth is not regarded as popular within the GOP House caucus, and many wondered whether the chamber would vote to impeach despite Republican control.
Republican reticence may have come from a newfound sense of unity in the face of adversity; it may also have come from negative reaction to the specific bill of impeachment laid out by Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY), which accused Hegseth of unlawful acts in the war on Iran and war crimes associated with the bombing campaign against civilian boats in the Caribbean. Republicans other than Massie have been critical of Hegseth on some, but not all, of these issues, and may have been reluctant to go along with the indictment’s most serious charges
President Donald J. Trump hosts a Rose Garden Club dinner in honor of Police Week in the White House Rose Garden, Monday, May 11, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
The Next Round: Hegseth Has a Problem
There should be no question that Tuesday’s events represent a delay of the impeachment of Hegseth, not the end of that effort.
Prominent Democrats, including incoming Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries, have spoken in favor of impeaching the Secretary of Defense.
When the new Congress takes its seats in January, Democrats will have a massive majority in the House and a writ for pursuing the administration, including Hegseth.
The Democrats may adjust the articles of impeachment slightly in order to build a better coalition or make specific legal and political points against Hegseth.
The Process
Only two cabinet members have ever been successfully impeached, and neither went to trial (the charges were dismissed in one case and the Secretary in question resigned in the other).
The process of impeaching and convicting Hegseth would be essentially identical to that of President Trump. The House of Representatives votes to impeach by simple majority, then makes its case on the Senate floor. A 2/3rds vote of the Senate is required for conviction and removal.
A further vote would then take place to determine whether Hegseth could serve in the federal government in a future capacity.
The Math
The Democrats are likely to control fifty-six seats in the incoming Senate, pending results in Mississippi and Alaska. Sixty-seven votes are required for conviction, meaning that the Democrats would need to flip eleven Republicans.
Hegseth is not regarded as popular among the Senate GOP, and some half a dozen Republican Senators have already voiced a willingness to approach impeachment charges in an open-minded fashion. Two of the three Senators who voted against Hegseth (Collins and McConnell), and two other strong critics (Tillis and Cornyn) will leave office in January.
The only potential Democratic defector is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who, despite some heterodox views, voted against confirmation of the Secretary of Defense in 2025.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at a FIFA reception at Trump Tower in New York City, Friday, July 17, 2026, ahead of the World Cup Final on Sunday. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
The Prospects
Assuming Democrats can hold their caucus together and win over the six Republican waverers, they remain five votes short of conviction. Five is a very steep hill to climb in a deeply partisan Senate, especially if President Trump throws his full support behind Hegseth. But part of the point of an impeachment proceeding is to formulate an argument against the defendant and uncover further evidence of malfeasance.
It is possible (if unlikely) that Democratic investigations will uncover evidence against Hegseth that will convince five additional Republicans to flip, making Hegseth the first cabinet secretary in American history to be convicted.
More likely, the effort will fall short. Although damaged, President Trump remains deeply influential with the constituencies that Senate Republicans serve, and few Senators wish to risk his wrath. This does not mean the impeachment process will be a failure for Democrats; half the point is to highlight the activities of one of the least popular members of an unpopular President’s cabinet.
Pete Hegseth Survives?
Pete Hegseth represents the quintessential combination of the spectacular incompetence and political radicalism that have characterized the Trump administration.
He has been critical in launching an illegal military campaign against civilian boats in the Caribbean, in conducting a failed war against Iran, and in pursuing a political witch hunt against the uniformed military that he is supposed to represent.
He is one of the very worst cabinet secretaries in the history of the Republic, and he deeply deserves impeachment and conviction. But in politics, deserve rarely has anything to do with anything.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley
Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to journals and magazines, including The National Interest, The Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and The American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.
