A Rough Winter Is Coming for Americans Thanks to the Iran War – Americans are about to face an expensive winter, with higher costs for heating their homes, traveling home for the holidays, and shipping packages to loved ones. Those prices will skyrocket largely because of the war in Iran, with disruptions to oil and gas shipments raising fuel costs and, in turn, increasing prices for everything from airfares to goods.
The increases will differ by households, of course. A family that heats with oil, for example, will face a different bill than one that heats with electricity. And a person driving home for Christmas may not pay quite as much as someone flying home. But the forecasts all point to the same thing: prices will go up, not down.
The Oil Shock Reaches Home
F-15C Fighter. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
A U.S. Air Force F-15EX Eagle II assigned to Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, releases flares over the Gulf Coast, April 3, 2026. The 96th Test Wing and 53rd Wing perform developmental and operational test series on the platform including next-generation survivability, radars, sensors and networking capabilities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech Sgt Thomas Barley)
Before the war with Iran began in February, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply traveled through the Strait of Hormuz — but attacks on ships in the strait have dramatically reduced the flow of oil from the Gulf to the global market.
And when less oil reaches the market, the buyers are left competing for what remains, pushing up crude prices. Even attempts to mitigate that disruption have been disrupted, too, with Yemen’s Houthis, an Iranian proxy organization, deliberately targeting Saudi ships moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and a strike originating from Iraq even hitting the East-West pipeline that is used to move oil off the mainland and avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Refineries are paying more for the raw materials they need to produce everything from gasoline and diesel to heating oil and jet fuel, and those higher costs affect consumers, not just businesses.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that Middle Eastern oil exports are likely to remain constrained through the end of 2026. In its September forecast, it projected Brent crude would average about $90 a barrel in the second half of this year, compared with its $69 average for 2025.
Prices will still move with developments in the war and negotiations. The Congressional Budget Office also says that the disruption is spreading beyond fuel bills.
Transporting and manufacturing goods, after all, takes energy – so higher fuel costs eventually raise prices everywhere. The agency says the energy shock from the war will add 0.5 percentage points to its previous forecast for annual U.S. inflation in the first quarter of the new year.
Trump at Turning Point Creative Commons Image
Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s 2023 Annual Leadership Summit at the Venetian Convention & Expo Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. By Gage Skidmore.
Heating Bills Go Up
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) says that the average U.S. household is likely to spend $1,030 on home heating this winter — an increase of $82, or 8.7%, from last winter’s $948.
Those figures, however, are broad estimates, with many houses likely to pay far more — especially those using heating oil.
NEADA forecasts that heating oil costs will continue to rise, increasing 31.3% from last winter. There will be a 9% increase for electric heat and 5.8% for natural gas. Heating oil prices are especially vulnerable because they closely track crude prices.
And, there’s a second pressure on homes heated by oil. The EIA expects that U.S. inventories of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, will remain below their five-year low through much of 2027.
Holiday Flights Are Getting Pricey
For those planning to fly home for Christmas: expect higher prices there, too. If the planes are running at all.
As jet fuel becomes more expensive, carriers are forced to absorb some of the costs but are ultimately required to charge more for seats or reduce flights that no longer earn enough to cover their costs.
With fewer available seats, there will be increased pressure on other forms of transport — and with rising demand and limited other options, prices are likely to rise elsewhere. That is especially true over the holidays.
The national data is already showing rising prices, too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its airfare index was 23.4% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025. That measures fares across the market in August; it is not a forecast that a particular Christmas flight will cost 23.4% more. The price of an individual trip will depend on its route and booking date.
Shipping Costs Go Through the Roof
Higher diesel prices are also raising prices of goods moved by truck. Carriers, like airlines, will pass some of that additional expense on, though they will shift some to retailers through fuel surcharges, which shoppers may then see in delivery fees or product prices.
Reuters reports that some shippers have already collected more in surcharges than they spent on additional fuel costs.
And on top of that, UPS plans to charge seasonal demand fees, including 75 cents per package, for certain residential ground shipments from November 22 through December 26.
All in all, it looks like this winter is set to be one of the most expensive for Americans in some time.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
