Key Points and Summary – Canada’s review of its planned purchase of 88 F-35s is nearing conclusion amid rising costs, pilot shortages, and infrastructure delays.
-Washington warns that shifting from the F-35—or splitting the buy—could undermine NORAD interoperability and strain ties.
-Ottawa is legally committed to 16 jets; alternatives like Saab’s Gripen, Dassault’s Rafale, and the Eurofighter Typhoon offer industrial offsets but lack fifth-gen stealth and seamless U.S. integration.
-A recent defense review argues against splitting the order, citing higher lifecycle costs and complexity.
-With first deliveries slated for 2026–2032, Prime Minister Mark Carney must balance politics with operational needs across Arctic, NORAD, and NATO missions.
Will Canada Heed The US Warning Over The NORAD Alliance?
A decision is quickly approaching on whether Canada will buy a full complement of 88 U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighters.
The U.S. has stated there will be significant consequences if Canada decides to forego its agreement to purchase the Lightning IIs.
This spring, Canada’s newly installed government called for a re-examination of the previous administration’s purchase of U.S.-built F-35s. The announcement came amid resentment over the Trump administration’s tariffs and Trump’s comments that Canada would do well to become the 51st U.S. state.
Ottawa has been looking at potential alternatives to a $13.2 billion purchase of the Lockheed Martin-designed fifth-generation jets, Defense Minister Bill Blair said, according to the CBC.
The U.S. has pointed out that purchasing foreign aircraft will incur additional costs for Canada, especially given its new aircraft may not be compatible with the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD. A decision to move away from Washington would also signal further deterioration of relations between the two countries.
Lockheed Martin told Newsweek in the spring that it values its partnership with the Royal Canadian Air Force, but that questions about Canada’s procurement of F-35s are for the U.S. and Canadian governments to resolve.
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 495th Fighter Squadron taxis pre-flight during exercise Combined Strike 25 at Aviano Air Base, Italy, Aug. 20, 2025. Combined Strike 25 is a readiness training with RAF Lakenheath’s 48th Fighter Wing F-15s and F-35s alongside Aviano’s 31st Fighter Wing F-16s. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Joseph Bartoszek)
The Re-Evaluation Of Purchasing The F-35…Or Not
Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty has committed to a public release of the review.
“The F-35 review is still expected to be finalized by the end of summer, which, in this case, refers to the end of the calendar summer,” confirmed Department of National Defense spokesperson Alex Tétreault.
Summer ends on September 20-22, after which the final decision will fall to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Canadian Military Once Again Makes Case For The F-35
Canadian defense officials have made a forceful case that Ottawa should remain committed to its planned purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets rather than splitting the order, as Reuters reported in an article early last month Canada may do.
The Canadian military has retained close ties with the U.S. and believes the F-35 remains the best choice for Canada. It is currently the most advanced aircraft in the world, at least until the F-47 becomes operational.
Canada announced the $14 billion deal in early 2023. But in June, Canada’s top independent watchdog said buying the jets would cost at least 45 percent more than initially estimated, adding that a pilot shortage also threatened the project.
Carney, who won the April election on a promise to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, requested the review in March on the grounds that Canada relies too much on the U.S. defense industry.
Ottawa has legally committed funds for the first 16 F-35 aircraft. Although Carney made clear in March that Canada could look at buying the remaining 72 planes from non-U.S. companies, the Defense Ministry review concluded there was no military sense in splitting the order.
Purchasing the remaining needed 72 aircraft from non-U.S. manufacturers could be very expensive. The purchase itself is just the start – there would also be a need for additional supplies, maintenance, and training facilities.
F-35s Are Needed to Replace Older CF-18 Hornets
Canada’s new fleet of F-35As is set to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s aging CF-18s. If the contract is kept, the first four of the 88 planes are expected to be delivered in 2026, and the final 18 in 2032.
In an interview with the CBC in May, Blair said he would examine whether all the jets need to be F-35s, or whether there are other alternatives – especially ones that open opportunities to assemble, support, and maintain jets in Canada.
“The direction the prime minister has given me is go and look at all of our options to make sure that we make the right decision for Canada,” Blair said.
Portugal decided to replace its aging fleet of F-16s with a purchase of European fighters after Trump roiled U.S. relations with the Europeans, including by stating that they have to pay more for their own defense.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II prepares for takeoff at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, September 22, 2022. The F-35 squadron from Luke Air Force Base, AZ used Mountain Home AFB for the terrain and airspace in order to practice simulated combat scenarios. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Cheyenne Bassham)
Defense Minister Nuno Melo told Portugal’s Publico newspaper that Trump’s attitude toward NATO is giving the Europeans pause.
“The recent U.S. stance in the context of NATO and the international geostrategic dimension, makes us think what are the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a factor to be reckoned with,” he said.
What Are Canada’s Options For Fighters
One option for Canada is Saab’s fourth-generation Gripen. The JAS 39 Gripen is a single-engine, multi-role fighter aircraft known for its agility and advanced avionics.
Equipped with state-of-the-art technology, it can perform air-to-air, air-to-surface, and reconnaissance missions. Given the strong bilateral relations between Canada and Sweden, and the fact that Gripen fighter jets came a close second to win the original deal, this is a possible option for Canada.
Saab has lobbied hard for the contract, and has offered the Canadians the option of building the aircraft domestically.
Another option for Canada is the 4.5-generation twin-engine, multi-role Dassault Rafale, which has “outstanding load-carrying capability and [an] advanced mission system.”
The Eurofighter Typhoon, developed by several European companies including Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo, is known for its advanced avionics, exceptional maneuverability, and versatility in air-to-air and air-to-surface missions. That, too, is a fourth-generation aircraft.
These fighter jets are all outstanding, but they are all fourth-generation platforms. The F-35 is a cutting-edge fifth-generation aircraft that has more than proved its worth. One need only look at what Israel and the U.S. accomplished in Iran with the F-35 to understand just how powerful it is.
Finland with F-35 fighter. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
What Will Carney Decide?
Canada and Carney are upset with Trump, but the prime minister’s decision now has less to do with the U.S. president than with his own country.
The prevailing sentiment is that Canada will not cancel the remaining 72 F-35s. Canadian pilots will continue to train in the U.S. to learn the ins and outs of the Lightning II.
The first batch of F-35s is scheduled for a 2026 arrival in Arizona – after that, the aircraft will be delivered straight to Canada.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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