Canada’s F-35 Fighter Problem Is Getting Serious

Key Points and Summary: A damning report from Canada’s Auditor General, Karen Hogan, reveals the F-35 stealth fighter program’s cost has soared by nearly 50% to C$27.7 billion and is plagued by significant readiness issues.

-The audit found that crucial basing infrastructure will not be ready on time, and the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has insufficient capacity to maintain both its old CF-18s and the new F-35s simultaneously, earning a “RED” readiness rating from the F-35 Joint Program Office.

-While political tensions with the US fuel calls to seek alternatives like the Saab JAS 39 Gripen E, Canada has already committed over C$900 million to the F-35 program, making a pivot difficult despite the serious challenges.

Canada Can’t Escape the F-35? 

The Auditor General of Canada, Karen Hogan, recently released the findings of an audit of Canada’s F-35 program, and the report’s findings were damning. Canadian cost estimates for participation in the program were off, underestimating total costs by nearly 50 percent, prompting calls from lawmakers to reconsider the partnership with the United States in the F-35 program.

“We found that the Future Fighter Capability Project cost estimates increased by 46%, or $8.7 billion, between 2022 and 2024 (Exhibit 2.5). In January 2023, the government announced that the acquisition cost was estimated at $19.0 billion, based on a 2022 costing exercise,” the announcement said. “We reviewed National Defence’s most recent updated estimates showing that the cost was now expected to be $27.7 billion.”

Back Door Off Switch?

Costs are not the only reason Canada is considering a break with the American program.

Lawmakers and commentators previously raised the prospect of Lockheed Martin, one of the principal prime contractors behind the aerospace project, retaining a back-door off switch, essentially a piece of code that could lock out pilots or support from the Canadian project, should Ottawa prove to be a stubborn thorn of opposition in the Pentagon’s side.

The veracity of off-switch accusations is strenuously denied by the American aerospace firms involved in the stealth fighter project.

Others have noted that Washington could also withhold parts of software updates, also creating another back-door switch sort of situation.

No Easy Way to Back Out

However, despite the significantly increased cost estimates, Canada does not have a straightforward way to make a clean break from the program, having already invested a substantial amount of money in Canada’s F-35 acquisition.

“As of 31 March 2025, the department had committed $935 million to the United States government for the production of the first 4 CF‑35A aircraft and the delivery of long-lead items necessary to enable the future production for another 8 aircraft, of which $197 million had already been paid to the United States government.”

“In addition, National Defence had spent about $516 million on the project. This included:

-$270 million for Canadian infrastructure design and site preparation

-$85 million for the project management office in National Defence

-$161 million for participating as a partner in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program”

Alternatives Sought — but Where?

Canada finds itself in a curious predicament. On the one hand, the United States has long been Canada’s closest defense and security partner. Not only have the two countries shared one of the world’s longest and relatively open borders, but Canada has also invested in a number of American-led aerospace projects, such as the CF-18 Hornets, which are Canada-specific variants of the American F/A-18 Hornet naval strike fighter.

But with attitudes toward the United States in Canada having soured thanks to American President Donald Trump’s trade war, the hunt is on for a non-American alternative to the F-35. While several aerospace companies would like to say that they’re in the running to replace the F-35, the truth of the matter is that there are currently no viable stealth alternatives to the American fifth-generation fighter jet.

Among the F-35 alternatives being discussed are the runner-ups from the competition that ultimately led to the selection of the F-35 for Canada, the Future Fighter Capability Project. One of these, Saab’s Gripen E, came in second to the F-35, and some Canadians see it as a viable alternative to the American stealth fighter.

The Swedish fighter’s modified delta wing design, coupled with cards on the forward fuselage and a relaxed stability design, gives the single-engine jet excellent maneuverability. Coupled with short take-off and landing requirements and relatively affordable operating costs compared to its platforms, the Gripen E, on paper at least, appears to be an attractive option for Canada — but those same qualities do not paint a complete picture.

The F-35 is a fifth-generation stealth fighter, designed to survive even in highly contested aerial environments thanks to advanced radar-absorbent coatings and a carefully contoured fuselage, features that absorb enemy radar and bounce radar away from the transmission location, respectively. The Gripen E, despite its many qualities, lacks the stealth considerations of the American fighter. The Swedish fighter was designed to excel in dogfights against similarly equipped fourth-generation aircraft. Its ability to survive and persist against a concerted enemy effort, particularly in contested and highly contested environments against a peer rival, is questionable.

Canadian Shortcomings Too

However, the Auditor General’s report was not only of a financial consequence — it was also rather damning for the Canadians, as the F-35 support infrastructure was unable to sustain both F-35 and CF-18 operations in parallel.

“In June 2024, the Joint Strike Fighter Program Office conducted an assessment of the interim operations plan to determine how ready National Defence was to support the first aircraft arrival in Cold Lake in December 2028,” Auditor General Karen Hogan wrote in her report.

“The overall rating for this assessment was “RED,” meaning that significant issues remained unresolved and required senior leadership action, including the following:

-The lack of a confirmed plan to keep pilots’ knowledge and skills up to date until the full training facility was available for continuous training.

-Insufficient capacity to maintain support equipment. The departmental engineering personnel informed the Joint Strike Fighter Program Office that they could not support both CF-18 and CF-35A operations.”

It is unclear how this would be solved with the introduction of another fighter into Canada’s fighter mix. The country has long eschewed flying two different kinds of fighter aircraft on the grounds that doing so would be an unnecessary logistical burden on the Royal Canadian Air Force. Not only would a two-fighter force necessitate two pilot training pipelines, but it would also add training complexities to support and maintenance infrastructure. Two sets of pilots and pilot training, two sets of spare parts and maintenance timetables, and two fighter support pipelines. In a few words, an unnecessary degree of inefficiency.

F-35 Drama Show

What direction Canada ultimately goes in its pursuit of a replacement for its Cold War-era CF-18 Hornet fleet remains to be seen. Several options are, in theory, on the table. However, having already spent a significant sum of treasure to prepare for the wider F-35 roll-out, shifting directions at this point in the Canadian F-35 program would be difficult, even if there is sufficient political support to turn away from the American stealth program.

The Auditor General’s report is concerning, but Ottawa risks cutting off its nose to spite its face.

About the Author: Caleb Larson

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

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