Key Points and Summary: A recent report from Chinese state media claims that J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighters flew over the strategic Tsushima Strait without being detected by Japanese, South Korean, or U.S. air defenses.
-This analysis explores the central question: does this incident prove the J-20’s stealth is far better than previously believed, or is it simply a clever propaganda ploy by Beijing?
-The author, a long-time skeptic of the J-20’s capabilities, admits the event is “curious” and forces a re-evaluation of the threat posed by China’s top fighter jet in a critical and heavily monitored region.
Just How Stealthy Is China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon?
China’s fifth-generation J-20 fighter jet is the jewel in the crown of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The PLAAF is producing these jets at an outrageous pace. The Chinese may have as many as 200 Mighty Dragons, with more on the way each month. The PLAAF is always ready to push China’s boundaries and deploy the J-20 to regions it has not seen before.
Mystery Flight Could Show J-20 Sneakiness
In late July, a flight of J-20s reportedly encroached on the Tsushima Strait without being detected. The strait connects the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea, and the East China Sea – it is strategic airspace watched closely by Japan and South Korea. Those two nations consider these waters to be critical for their sovereignty.
Better Radar Evasion Capability
Since the Japanese and South Koreans did not scramble their own fighter jets in response to the J-20s, observers concluded that the Mighty Dragon’s radar-evasion capabilities could be better than originally thought.
I have always been skeptical of the J-20’s stealthiness, but this action is curious, and it suggests I may have been mistaken in my analysis. This could be a one-off event, but perhaps the PLAAF has improved the J-20’s ability to evade radar.
This Might Be Propaganda
Keep in mind that video of this PLAAF patrol of J-20s was originally shared by state-run CCTV – a broadcaster that is a mouthpiece for the Chinese military.
The fighter “flies missions over the Bashi Channel and Tsushima Strait, and conducts patrols around Taiwan,” a news anchor from CCTV said.
The Bashi Channel is near the Batanes Islands, Philippines, and Orchid Island off Taiwan. We know that the J-20 regularly flies rehearsals for an attack against Taiwan, and that the Bashi Channel is close to the island-nation as well. This could mean the PLAAF is extending the range of the J-20.
China is playing a dangerous game with U.S. allies such as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. There could always be a miscalculation involving fighter jets and bombers in this area of operations. The more China flies missions near Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea with its best airplane, the greater the chance that something disastrous could happen – such as a mid-air collision or an accidental missile strike.
The J-20s in question are part of a top-notch unit called the First Fighter Brigade that has been quite active in sending the Mighty Dragon over contested airspace. CCTV showed the brigade’s J-20s throughout the July video report.
Another concern regarding the J-20s’ flight over the Tsushima Strait is that the United States is believed to monitor the region, given this airspace is covered by the vaunted THAAD missile-defense system. It is not clear whether THAAD radars were alerted by the J-20 flight; it is possible that the J-20s snuck past with no early warning given to the Americans.
South Korea and Japan did not report any air incursion over Tsushima. The PLAAF was likely over-joyed at the mission and will probably conduct it again to test adversarial air defenses.
So just how stealthy is the Mighty Dragon? It may be better than some believe. I am of the opinion that the Mighty Dragon does not have the same level of radar evasion enjoyed by the F-35 and F-22.
Stealth Features Are All Over the Airplane
The J-20 has a decent amount of radar-absorbent materials that mask it from radar pinging its front, but it is likely vulnerable to discovery from the rear and sides. Other stealth features abound. The airplane has a canard delta-wing design. The J-20 also features internal weapon bays, as well as sawtooth edges on compartment hatches, and diverterless inlets. The J-20 is equipped with engine nozzles and a cooling port mesh. All of these elements add up to provide a respectable degree of stealth.
J-20: It Could Have More Radar Absorbing Materials
Perhaps the J-20 also had new radar-absorbent coatings that allowed it to roam undiscovered during the Tsushima flight. This is plausible, as the PLAAF looks continually to improve its aircraft.
The J-20 is one of the PLAAF’s top priorities. China is pushing it to be more radar-evasive and adding to its range. If it can cover all of that airspace and knock at the doors of Japan and South Korea – not to mention bullying Taiwan at the same time – the Chinese may have a hit on their hands.
Or, the Tsushima mission could all be a propaganda ploy to influence intelligence agencies and allied battle planners that the Mighty Dragon has a reduced frontal radar cross-section. The J-20 is a fighter that we watch closely at National Security Journal, and I have been a Mighty Dragon doubter over the years. Perhaps this jet is better than I previously thought.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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