Key Points and Summary – China’s long-awaited H-20 stealth bomber remains shrouded in mystery, with Western analysts expressing deep skepticism about its true capabilities and timeline.
-While touted as a long-range, B-2-style bomber, a U.S. intelligence official states the H-20 is “nowhere near as good” as American platforms due to “engineering design challenges.”
-Recent satellite images of a large flying-wing aircraft, intentionally “leaked” by Beijing, are now suspected by some experts to be a massive, secret reconnaissance drone, not the H-20 bomber at all.
-With its debut not expected for another decade, the H-20 may be more of a “paper tiger” than a true game-changer.
Is China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber A Game Changer Or Not Special At All?
The Chinese have been developing the H-20 stealth bomber for a decade.
Beijing seeks a modern stealth bomber capable of surviving in a modern, contested environment, with the range to operate in the Second Island Chain and beyond.
However, while claims and grainy images suggest an aircraft with a range of over 10,000 km and a conventional/nuclear payload of more than 10 tons, many US aviation analysts are skeptical of these claims.
China Ensuring Photos Are “Leaked” To Media
Make no mistake, the Chinese aren’t surprised by these supposed “leaked” photos of their aircraft; these were planned to move forward.
Tyler Rogoway of The War Zone (TWZ) wrote that in late May, satellite photos from Planet Labs emerged of a giant “flying-wing” design aircraft parked outside at China’s secretive test facility near Malan in Xinjiang province, which is known to be on the leading edge of the country’s unmanned aircraft development efforts.
This aircraft was parked outside a new facility that had been recently built to the east of the base, connected to it by a very long taxiway leading to a security gate. He said that he believes this wasn’t an accident or a blunder. He added that it’s far more likely China was ready for this aircraft to be seen by satellites.
Whether these airframes are decoys to throw off Western intelligence or a mockup isn’t known, but they seem intentional.
Could this discovery be, in fact, the H-20?
What Do We Know About China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber
Or, maybe not. There is no official photograph of the H-20, but a photo was posted on Chinese social media of a new large combat aircraft making a test flight, which was speculated to be China’s new secret H-20 stealth bomber. The location and exact date of the imagery were not disclosed. Could that be the H-20?
The aircraft was a “flying wing” design, followed by a chase plane. The indistinct image bears a close resemblance to a photo released in 2022 from a wind tunnel test conducted by the Chinese, which featured a bomber similar to the one depicted in Air and Space Forces magazine.
It also resembled the American B-2 Spirit stealth bomber remarkably closely.
Why the H-20 Matters
The H-20’s focus is on enhancing China’s power projection capabilities and securing its interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
In contrast, the US B-21 is designed for global power projection, ensuring the US can maintain its strategic deterrence and respond to threats anywhere in the world.
We hear about the advanced capabilities of the H-20 and that it will be a power-altering force in the skies over the Indo-Pacific. But where is it?
Some analysts believe the pictures we’re seeing aren’t the H-20 but a drone.
American Analysts Skeptical … A Paper Tiger?
The challenges of building and developing a stealth bomb are vast, as the Chinese know full well.
In July 2022, Chinese state media reported that the bomber was nearing its maiden flight. By March 2024, during the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress, Vice Commander of the PLAAF Wang Wei indicated that the H-20 would be revealed “very soon.”
The US military states that it still does not expect China’s long-awaited H-20 bomber to make its “debut” – unclear whether this refers to its entrance into operational service or its public emergence – until sometime in the next decade.
Building a stealth bomber takes time, as well as extensive testing. The Pentagon publishes an unclassified report on China’s military every year. And the H-20 was mentioned.
“The PRC is developing a new generation of long-range bombers, likely named the H-20. The H-20, which may debut sometime in the next decade, will have a range of more than 10,000 km [nearly 6,214 miles], enabling the PLAAF to cover the Second Island Chain and into the western region of the Pacific,” the report added.
“The H-20 bomber’s range could be extended to cover the globe with aerial refueling. It is expected to employ conventional and nuclear weaponry and feature a stealthy design.”
The H-20 Won’t Be Easy to Build…
Defense One interviewed an intelligence official, who said the Chinese technology isn’t up to the US standards…yet.
“The thing with the H-20 is when you look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US [low observable] platforms, particularly more advanced ones that we have coming down,” he said.
“They’ve run into a lot of engineering design challenges, in terms of how do you make that system capability function similarly to a B-2 or B-21.”
Pictures Shown At The Airfield Are A Drone … Expert Says
So what about those May images revealed in TWZ? The image of the aircraft at the airfield in Xinjiang Province isn’t the H-20 at all, Rogoway said in his article with TWZ.
“The best explanation is that this is a huge, high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) stealthy drone—similar to the supposed US RQ-180—but this would be the biggest we have ever seen,” Rogoway wrote.
“China is developing a number of flying-wing type designs of various sizes, including large HALE drones, but nothing at this scale, at least that we know about.”
We may still not know what the H-20 looks like. That’s ok, you can see the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber in the U.S. Air Force Museum.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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