After the disastrous midterm elections earlier this month, President Trump is shifting the administration’s focus away from the Iran war and back toward domestic issues.
In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said that he ordered Vice President JD Vance to shift his focus toward the “massive corruption and crime” taking place domestically. After losing the Senate and the House of Representatives, the administration appears to be trying to distance itself from the war, which has been a political disaster for the Republican Party.
F-22 Raptors from the 1st Fighter Wing and 192nd Fighter Wing, participate in a total force exercise at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, Feb. 28, 2019. Both wings partnered with the 633rd Air Base Wing during the Phase I exercise to showcase their readiness and deployability of the F-22s. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech Sgt. Carlin Leslie)
An F-22 Raptor soars over the Pacific Sea Test Range on December 19, 2024. The aircraft is assigned to the 411th Flight Test Squadron, Air Dominance Combined Test Force, at Edwards Air Force Base, CA. (Courtesy photo)
The problem, however, is that Iran is not yet ready to give up and remains unwilling to compromise on its steep demands.
Shifting Focus Away From Iran
“I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S.,” Trump wrote on social media. “The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars [are] being stolen each and every month.” Vice President Vance is often credited with negotiating the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which provided a short-lived ceasefire that ultimately collapsed.
On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was considering opening direct negotiations with Iranian officials.
Trump seems to have shot this option down, claiming that negotiations with Iran are essentially pointless. “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed,” the President wrote. “We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait!”
Keeping track of what Trump actually thinks is difficult, as he seems to change his mind on negotiations frequently.
It appears that the President believes that the U.S. has essentially won the war against Iran. Trump has previously ruled out further military action against Tehran, as the nation has been effectively crippled. “They’re a failing nation,” he told CNN. “It just came out, you saw this year, 301% inflation. Highly unlikely it will be necessary. I would if necessary, but we hit them really hard. I hit them so hard. You don’t know how hard I hit them.” Earlier this week, Trump said that the war in Iran was “effectively over,” and that the U.S. is “just keeping the status quo.” While the President is committed to not resuming military action, it appears that the administration has no idea how to end the war short of walking away while claiming victory.
Vance Blames the War on the Midterm Losses
Vance, on the other hand, has always been critical of U.S. foreign intervention and has been lukewarm in his defense of the ongoing war against Iran.
Although the Vice President has stood by Trump’s decision to launch the war, he has also been the most adamant about pursuing a diplomatic end to the conflict, even though negotiations have so far been unsuccessful.
Following the midterm elections, Vance bluntly pointed to the Iran war as one of the biggest reasons for the GOP’s failure at the polls. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” he said in a social media post. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
The Vice President has previously considered running for president in 2028. However, considering the war’s unpopularity and the political fallout, Vance’s presidential ambitions may never materialize. So far, Trump has yet to endorse a successor for the 2028 elections.
How the GOP performs, not only in the presidential elections but also in future House and Senate races, will likely depend on whom the Republicans pick as their frontrunner.
Iran Hasn’t Lost Yet
Despite Trump’s efforts to wash his hands of the Iran affair, the situation in the Middle East has not changed. Although oil exports from the Gulf states have managed to recover since March, attacks against civilian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not ceased.
This week, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reported that five tankers were struck by naval mines or unknown projectiles.
Oil prices, which dipped sharply at the beginning of the month, are slowly inching their way back up. Brent crude is currently priced at $96 per barrel after dropping as low as $89 per barrel earlier this week.
Iran, meanwhile, remains committed to its maximalist demands.
Earlier this month, Tehran claimed that it could open the Strait of Hormuz in two days if the U.S. agreed to its seven demands.
A full list of the demands has not been published, but they include measures such as lifting the U.S. naval blockade and an immediate cessation of hostilities, including in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Houthis continue causing chaos in Yemen, as the Saudi-led coalition struggles to contain the militant group. Previous Houthi attacks have targeted oil tankers attempting to cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
