President Donald Trump will be out of the White House by Easter.
At least, according to Democratic strategist James Carville, but is such a move likely?
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia holds first press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Tuesday, October 13, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)
Donald Trump 2023 Rally Creative Commons Photo
Carville made the prediction ahead of this month’s midterm elections, which saw Trump’s Republican Party lose control of both the House and Senate, as well as several major gubernatorial races.
After successfully predicting a Republican defeat, Carville said he would “put a huge amount” of money on a bet that “Trump will be out by Easter.”
“I think he’s going to get really bored and when you lose one this big, people don’t really pay attention to you,” said Carville, suggesting Trump would struggle with his declining power and relevance after such a huge defeat.
Carville also raised concerns over the president’s health, remarking, “He’s obviously not well; he sleeps all the time, slobbers all over himself.”
Why Would Trump Resign the Presidency?
Several other political analysts have also made predictions that Trump will resign the presidency.
Prominent poll analyst Nate Silver suggested last week that the 80-year-old president could simply “quit” the presidency after the Republican Party’s catastrophic midterm defeat and enjoy the rest of his life at Mar-a-Lago or in his home state of New York.
“I had just a weird intuition that maybe Trump will find some pretense to quit,” he told the “Still Counting” podcast, noting that the lame duck president “could get very, very isolated” in the White House as allies and officials position themselves for the 2028 presidential election.
Trump, now past the peak of his power, would likely prefer to spend his retirement in relative peace rather than spend the next two years hopelessly battling a Democratic-controlled House and Senate, and therefore could let Vice President JD Vance “have the job,” according to Silver.
In that case, the 2028 presidential election could change dramatically.
JD Vance Would Become Vice President and Get to Nominate His Own VP
If Trump decided to resign the presidency, Vance would automatically become president and could nominate his own vice president, as laid out in the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
Vance would also be able to run for two more terms in the White House after serving out the rest of Trump’s term, potentially giving him and his allies ten years in office.
Such a situation would not be without issues, though.
A Vance Presidency Would Face Many Problems and Be Guaranteed a Rough Start
Vance would be limited in how much he could get done now that a Democratic-controlled House and Senate are about to take session in the new year.
Vance’s nominee for vice president would also have to be confirmed by a majority in both the House and Senate, setting a hypothetical Vance presidency off to a rough start.
Vance would also struggle to separate the identity of his administration from Trump’s and would continue to be blamed for many of the shortcomings of the previous administration.
With upcoming investigations into the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein files and allegations of corruption, Vance — or members of his administration — could also be implicated.
A Vance presidency would likely be bogged down and under siege until the 2028 presidential election, when he would be at a disadvantage.
Trump is Unlikely to Make Such a Move
Despite the potential advantages of resigning the presidency, Trump is unlikely to make such a move.
For starters, only one U.S. president has ever resigned the presidency — Richard Nixon — and that was in disgrace following the Watergate scandal.
Resigning soon would also give Trump little time to salvage his legacy after record-low approval ratings, accusations of betrayal among his supporters, and an ongoing, extremely unpopular war against Iran.
If Trump resigned in the coming months, he would likely go down as one of the worst U.S. presidents of all time — despised by Democrats and Republicans alike, and remembered as the man who crashed the economy, made fuel prices skyrocket, and got the country into another messy conflict.
In addition, Trump has signaled his willingness to work with Democrats over the next two years, including to pass legislation that would allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country.
About the Author: Charlie Nash
Charlie Nash is a journalist and author whose work has appeared in The Spectator, Mediaite, New Statesman, and the American Conservative, among other major publications. His reporting has been featured by The Washington Post, Fox News, the Daily Beast, MS NOW, NewsNation, Hannity, and more. You can follow Charlie on X at @CharlieNash and on LinkedIn.
