The last American troops left Iraq on Wednesday in the closing chapter of a military campaign waged by the U.S.-led coalition to drive away ISIS.
Washington and Baghdad agreed two years ago to the evacuation from Erbil Air Base.
An M1A1 Abrams tank from 1st Tank Battalion, 3rd Marines, maneuvers before a live fire assault at Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland, Australia, on May 25, 2001 for Exercise Tandem Thrust 2001. Tandem Thrust is a combined military training exercise involving more than 18,000 U.S., Australian, and Canadian personnel who are training in crisis action planning and execution of contingency response operations.
(DoD photo by Sgt. Bob O’Donahoo, Australian Army. (Released))
U.S. Soldiers assigned to 3rd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division fire an M1 Abrams at enemy targets during Rotation 24-06, at the National Training Center, Fort Irwin, Calif., April 11, 2024. Rotations at the National Training Center ensure Army Brigade Combat Teams remain versatile, responsive, and consistently available for current and future contingencies. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Julie Jaeger, Operations Group, National Training Center)
Operation Inherent Resolve will continue from Jordan, and American military personnel around the region will continue to assist Iraq against ISIS.
Last U.S. Troops Leave Erbil
The U.S. Central Command announced on September 30 that American forces and equipment had finished leaving Erbil Air Base.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell declared it an “orderly departure” and said the mission had defeated ISIS as an “organized military threat.”
CENTCOM was careful to distinguish the conclusion of the Iraq mission from the campaign as a whole, which continues from Jordan, where CJTF-OIR is now based. Adm.
Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, said ISIS no longer posed a “systemic threat” to Iraqi national security and that Iraqi forces now had the “capacity, leadership, and operational independence” to clear out what ISIS cells remained.
President Donald Trump had a markedly different characterization of the U.S.’ strategy. Speaking at the White House, he declared the Iraq mission “a very expensive excursion into Hell.”
“It was a quagmire,” Trump said, noting that after years of “very bad decision-making,” it was all coming to an end.
Iran Calls Withdrawal a ‘Historic Victory’
Iran’s reaction to the news on Thursday was as far from the American position as one might imagine.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) congratulated Iraq and its proxy Shiite terror group Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) on a “historic victory.” Both the IRGC and elements of the IRI are listed as foreign terrorist groups by the U.S. government.
The IRGC extensively funds and trains terror proxies across the Middle East, including Iran-backed proxies within Iraq, and was even more effusive.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq commander Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri told Reuters that the withdrawal was a “historic victory” for the Islamist terror group.
He said it marked a “crushing defeat” for the U.S.
Baghdad Says It Can Handle ISIS
Baghdad claims it can deal with ISIS following the conclusion of the international coalition mission.
Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi said at the mission’s closing ceremony: “The end of the international coalition mission does not mean an end to our fight against terrorism.”He claimed that Baghdad would henceforth be taking on “full responsibility” for security against the Islamist terror group.
The Freedom House NGO ranks Iraq 31/100. Despite holding regular elections, the organization warns that the country’s “democratic governance is impeded in practice by corruption, militias operating outside the bounds of the law, and the weakness of formal institutions.”
Not Everyone Thinks Iraq Has That Capability
Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who advises the security forces, told Reuters “security vacuums can be extremely dangerous.” Retired Iraqi Army Gen. Mohammed al-Jubouri said the important question was whether Baghdad had a “Plan B” ready for the post-coalition transition period.
The Kurdish officials have been far from reassured. Former U.S. ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman told Rudaw that Iraqi and Kurdish forces “are much more professional” when it comes to facing ISIS, but Silliman noted that Iraq still lacked sophisticated air defenses.
The Peshmerga Ministry of the Kurdistan Region went so far as to say the departure of American troops without a replacement air-defense system constitutes “a matter for concern.” Kurdish authorities said the region has faced more than 1,000 missile and drone attacks in the course of the current U.S.-Iran conflict.
Reuters reported that ISIS itself may be emboldened in the new environment. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said authorities had seen ISIS sleeper cells become active in the period leading up to the withdrawal, and that the news of the American departure “has boosted, in my opinion, the morale [of ISIS].”
What Happens to Iran-Backed Militias?
The Iraqi government initially linked the September 30 deadline to disarming militias outside of state authority.
That timeline has slipped, however, with al-Zaidi telling the New York Times that he has postponed the target date for militia disarmament until June 2027.
Al-Zaidi used the opportunity to reiterate the policy’s principle at the departure ceremony, saying, “No weapons outside the umbrella of the law, and no force outside state institutions.”
Other actors, including terror groups, have other plans. Kataib Hezbollah official Abu Mujahid al-Assaf said the American withdrawal marked “the beginning of full sovereignty.” Islamic Resistance in Iraq said its negotiations with the government failed to produce an agreement and that it was “not bound by any timeline” Baghdad imposed.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
