Sometimes the most important airborne strike packages never drop a bomb.
On Monday night, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets and their refueling aircraft flew more than 800 miles east, crossed Syrian and Iraqi airspace, and pushed right up to the Iranian border before turning around and heading home.
Iron Dome from Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
F-15I Ra’am from Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Axios, citing Israeli and US officials, reported that Israel gave Washington advance notice and called it a “power projection” training exercise meant to deter Iran from attacking ahead of Israel’s October 27 election.
However, some people in Washington didn’t believe that narrative.
Some US officials told Axios, and the Times of Israel confirmed that they had the impression Israel was hoping Iran would shoot at the jets, which would hand Jerusalem a justification to strike Iranian targets.
The Route Was The Message
The flight path matters more than the press release. The jets followed a route consistent with a real strike on Iran, the same corridor Israeli aircraft used in bombing campaigns earlier this year.
Residents around Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley reported hearing multiple fighters in the middle of the night. The IDF didn’t comment, which is typical. They rarely comment on operations.
US officials said the Israelis knew full well that Iranian air defense radars would pick up the formation. That was the point. You don’t fly dozens of fighters and a tanker train to the edge of someone’s airspace by accident.
For those keeping score at home, the tankers are the tell. Israel’s F-15I Ra’ams and F-35I Adirs can’t make a round trip to Iranian targets and back without aerial refueling.
When the KC-46A tankers go up with the fighters and fly the strike route, everyone with a radar screen knows what they’re rehearsing.
A Very Crowded Monday
The timing stacked up quickly.
The sortie flew the same day Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base in the Negev on an unannounced trip.
Axios’s sources said the two weren’t connected.
That visit came a day after President Trump endorsed Netanyahu in next week’s election. Netanyahu then spoke to President Trump on the phone while the cameras rolled. Netanyahu told Trump that they “still have a job to finish, and they will finish it together.”
It also came after Axios reported that Netanyahu and Trump discussed in early October a major new operation against Iran before both countries vote in important elections.
Netanyahu stated that Israeli intelligence believes Iran was moving to rebuild its nuclear program.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine that restarting the war could force Israel to postpone its election, because Iran would almost certainly fire back after any US/Israeli air strike operation.
Trump initially leaned toward resuming strikes, then backed off, and on October 8 publicly ruled out an attack on Iran before the November 3 midterms.
Then on Wednesday, Netanyahu said at a military graduation that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had given scientists the green light to build a bomb.
He added that he had directed the IDF, the Mossad, and Israel’s security services to work toward overthrowing the regime.
And the hardline Iranians aren’t hiding their desire to build a bomb.
The latest is Ahmad Naderi, a member of the presiding committee of Iran’s parliament.
Over the weekend, he called for Tehran to build a bomb and to rethink its entire nuclear policy, arguing that Iran is now under attack and its strategic options have to change with it.
He went further.
Naderi said he expects Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to issue a new fatwa on nuclear weapons, one that breaks with his late father’s ban.
He also claimed he has spent more than a decade pushing for Iran to conduct an actual nuclear test.
The Israelis have never shied away from a problem, and know that an Iranian nuclear weapon will be pointed at them first.
Deterrence Or Provocation?
Each side’s arguments are reasonable, and that’s what makes this dangerous.
The deterrence case is straightforward. Netanyahu has said Israel had indications that its enemies would try to strike before the election, and US intelligence reportedly shares that view.
Showing Tehran that the IAF can reach its border at will, unopposed, is a cheap reminder of what happened in March, when Israel said it had hit more than 200 Iranian air defense systems in the opening days of the air campaign.
An Israeli official also told Axios that Zamir won’t permit any unjustified military activity that could undermine the vote.
The provocation case is just as easy to make.
Critics, including outlets skeptical of anything about the US and Israel, argue that a renewed fight could delay the very election Netanyahu is contesting.
Iran’s military has warned before that it treats Israeli aircraft movements near its borders as a dangerous threat it reserves the right to answer.
One nervous Iranian battery commander pulls the trigger, and both sides resume fighting, as Iran hasn’t stopped targeting US and Gulf neighboring assets.
A third possibility remains unmentioned.
When Iran’s radars and surface-to-air sites light up to track a formation like that, they give away their location, the frequencies they use, and how quickly they react.
Every emission is free intelligence for the next real mission. Prudence on their part insists that they at least nominally light up an approaching formation of Israeli aircraft before they cross into Iranian airspace.
Probing an enemy’s air defenses to make them reveal themselves is as old as electronic warfare, and the IAF is very, very good at it.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) relies on advanced airborne electronic warfare suites, such as systems developed by Elbit Systems, to disrupt enemy radars, blind anti-aircraft batteries, and analyze spectrum data in real time.
Specialized units like the IDF’s 5114th Spectrum Battalion have actively engaged in digital and electromagnetic countermeasures against incoming threats.
Israel Has Done This Before
In 2008, Israel sent more than 100 fighters on a roughly 900-mile drill over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece, the distance to Iran.
A Pentagon official at the time told The New York Times, “They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know,” the official said
In October 2024, Israel went further, using Iraqi airspace to fire on Iranian border radars and air defense sites.
Monday’s flight took that same corridor right to the edge and stopped.
But just as the IRGC likes to send a message with its repeated attacks on shipping traffic in the Gulf, the IDF can also send a far deadlier message.
What Comes Next?
This lands in an already overheated week.
Overnight, Tehran claimed its forces and mines damaged seven oil tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel votes Tuesday.
The US votes the following Tuesday.
Everyone is signaling, and everyone is watching everyone else’s radar screens.
So who blinks first?
Iran held its fire on Monday, which was the smart play.
However, deterrence works only until someone misreads the signal.
The jets turned around this time.
The next formation may not.
It may have been bait, but it also warned that Tehran, which has operated with immunity for the past several weeks, is on notice.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
