Key Points – The prospect of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is growing as US-led diplomatic efforts falter.
-On Thursday, June 12th, the IAEA’s board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
-This came as President Trump expressed dwindling confidence in a deal and the US evacuated non-essential personnel from the Middle East.
-Iran responded defiantly, announcing it was installing centrifuges at a new, attack-proof enrichment facility.
-With upcoming talks in Oman now in doubt, the likelihood of an Israeli military response has significantly increased.
Israel Getting Ready to Strike Iran?
WARSAW, POLAND – In anticipation of an Israeli attack on Iran, the United States has placed its military units and diplomatic posts – particularly those in the Middle East – on high alert.
The US State Department and the Secretary, Marco Rubio, have authorized evacuations of non-essential personnel and family members of military and diplomatic personnel based across the region.
The Trump Administration had been working on coming to an agreement with Iran that would prevent the Islamic state from developing a nuclear weapon, but coming to that agreement has proved elusive.
“I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them [the Iranians], but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview.
According to a previously scheduled set of interactions, Iranian and US negotiators were expected to hold a sixth round of face-to-face talks in Oman on Sunday.
The two teams are headed by lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and they will be heading up discussions between their technical teams.
However, sources on both sides of the process now stated that on Wednesday, 11 June, odds are that these talks may not happen.
Probably Not a Coincidence
On Thursday, 12 June the world’s nuclear watchdog board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.
This is the first time in 20 years that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has made such a determination.
Nineteen of the 35 countries on the board of the international agency voted for the motion, which the we, the UK, France, and Germany submitted.
The motion reads that Iran’s “many failures” to provide the IAEA with complete answers regarding its undeclared nuclear material and activities constitute non-compliance.
The nations also all agreed to express concern about Iran’s stockpile of uranium, which has been enriched to a level where it can not only be used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons.
These two developments – the US pullout of its personnel from the Middle East and now this determination by the IAEA “are probably not a coincidence,” said a retired US intelligence official.
It would appear the rationale for the US looking the other way if Israel decides to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure “is almost complete,” said another former intelligence officer who spoke to me.
More ominously, Iran has signalled it is not seeking any chance for mediation but instead has now thrown down the gauntlet.
After the IAEA’s official announcement Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami stated defiantly: “We’ve built a new enrichment facility in a secure, attack-proof location. All details were promptly shared with the IAEA after the decision. Centrifuge installation is underway, and enrichment will begin once setup is complete,” this according to Iran’s News Agency (IRNA).
If Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu are serious about their stance that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear device, it would now seem there is little chance that an attack on Iran could be prevented.
What is Israel’s Likely Plan of Attack on Iran?
Last month. Caroline Glick, an international affairs advisor to Netanyahu told Bloomberg “[W]hat Israel wants is to make sure Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons.” She also told the news service that if a deal could be made, the only acceptable deal would be one in which Iran agrees to forgo any future enrichment activities.
Given today’s developments that seems completely off the table. But if Israel were to attack Iran, any operation targeting these nuclear sites would probably be “limited”, said Glick. But, historically, hostile actions that are declared limited when initiated seldom remain in that category.
Kenneth Pollack, a former top CIA official, also commented that “the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran has never been higher — but it’s quite a bit lower than most people believe.” But most of those who are qualifying the chances of Netanyahu ordering his military to strike Iran agree that the elements of constraint are only in place for as long as negotiations are still ongoing. If they collapse, then “all bets are off.”
They now apparently have, unless Sunday’s session somehow still takes place.
But Israel lacks the military capability to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own. Eurasia Group on Thursday increased its odds of an Israeli strike on Iran to a 30 per cent probability. It also stated that it doubts that Israel would attack on its own due to its dependence on the US.
Israel has a limited fleet of F-35 stealth fighters that can carry 2000-pound bombs and F-15s that can drop 4000-pounders.
They still may not be enough, however. As Iran keeps upping the ante and negotiations collapse, so does probability of a major attack on the Islamic state – and that the US would join in with Israel in that operation.
“If it happens, an attack may not take out all the nuclear sites that Israel is hoping to destroy,” said a Washington-based security expert on the Middle East. “But what it could do is be the final straw at home that causes an internal revolt in Iran that finally eliminates the mullahs and their regime. That – in the end – may the best outcome for everyone.”
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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doyle
June 12, 2025 at 11:44 pm
Israel has already attacked iran. Early friday morning local time.
The attack called operation Rising Lion hit tehran and natanz, an attack similar to japan’s 1941 attack on pearl.
Israel says the attack will be continued in the coming days, and so ww3 is coming.
What did brazil’s nostradamus predicted for 2025. A ww3.
Athos salome said “A coming dangerous crisis is likely to spark an almighty global battle,” predicting a global collapse. In 2025. ww3 coming.
Ww3 coming. It’s coming. Stock up your larders.
Zhduny
June 13, 2025 at 12:29 am
The Israeli attack on iran was coordinated with US counterparts.
That is according to israeli public broadcaster Kan which said US was informed in advanced of the strike.
It is crystal clear. War in donbass, war in middle east and war in western pacific.
So, the world now awaits retaliation and, boom, ww3.
STOP THE EXPORTS OF RARE EARTHS, NOW !!!