Key Points and Summary – Israel is preparing for another war with Iran, a reality underscored by its recent decision to increase defense spending by $12.5 billion and accelerate the purchase of new Arrow missile interceptors.
-The move comes after the recent 12-day war, which, while a tactical victory for Israel, also exposed vulnerabilities in its air defenses as some Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated the shield.
-Although Israeli strikes devastated Iran’s missile launchers and air defense sites, Tehran has vowed to rebuild its military and nuclear program. Israel’s massive new investment in its missile defense indicates it is taking that threat seriously.
Israel Fears Iran’s Missiles
Iran’s air defense and missile launcher infrastructure suffered heavy losses during the 12-day war with Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it had hit 120 Iranian ballistic missile launchers by June 16 – roughly one-third of Iran’s pre-war total.
Israeli forces also caused substantial damage to Iran’s air defense systems, striking radar systems and more.
In recent days, Rear Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi, the Iranian army’s deputy for operations, claimed that its air defenses had been restored using equipment previously kept in storage.
However, Iran’s aging air defense infrastructure – a hodgepodge of Iranian Najm 804 radar devices and Russian Tor surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems – is no match for Israel’s existing and incoming military hardware.
From ground-based firepower and air defenses to advanced aircraft, Israel has the upper hand over Iran by every metric. Israel’s recently announced plans to procure more Arrow interceptors, however, suggests Jerusalem doesn’t believe the war is truly over.
Does Israel Expect New Iranian Strikes? Seems So…
Israel’s Finance and Defense Ministries confirmed last week that defense spending will increase by 42 billion NIS (approximately 12.5 billion USD) this year and next.
In a statement, the ministries said that the budget increase would allow the Israel Defense Ministry to “advance urgent and essential procurement deals critical to national security.”
The news comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructs military leaders to “strengthen readiness and technological superiority” against foreign threats as part of a more aggressive buildup from 2027.
Among Israel’s most immediate investments will be the procurement of new Arrow interceptor systems, which were developed and manufactured with the United States Missile Defense Agency. Israel’s Ministry of Defense confirmed on Thursday, July 17, that it had signed a new deal to accelerate acquisition of new Arrow interceptors.
The system was described in a statement as having “demonstrated significant interception capabilities during the Israel-Hamas War, especially during Operation Rising Lion.”
The news suggests Israel expects continued conflict in the years to come, including from Iran, following the 12-day war and, consequently, Tehran’s refusal to shut down its nuclear program. Purchasing more Arrow interceptors looks like less of a routine upgrade and more of a direct strategic response to vulnerabilities exposed during the June war.
The Arrow missile defense system proved crucial for Israel in intercepting ballistic missiles, reportedly achieving an estimated 86% interception rate.
While some missiles still penetrated Israeli defenses, Israeli officials have previously said that some missiles were permitted to land when their trajectory indicated that they would not cause harm to civilians or military sites.
With Iran’s nuclear ambitions still intact and reports suggesting efforts are underway to procure more modern defense systems, Israel appears to be preparing for another round of strikes. Its investments in Arrow and other, broader defense upgrades at least suggest Israel anticipates more war – not less – in the years to come.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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Jim
July 22, 2025 at 10:39 am
A tactical victory for Israel?
Never before in the history of Israel have they suffered such significant direct attacks on their cities, military installations, and key infrastructure, such as closing the port of Haifa and damaging an oil refinery, and temporarily closing Ben Gurion International Airport.
Not reported in corporate, mainstream media, but the accuracy, destructive power, and evasive ability (speed & maneuverability) of Iran’s missiles surprised the military & civilian leadership of Israel.
Rumor has it, Netanyahu had the good sense to go along with the cease fire, some analysts claim Netanyahu actually wanted the cease fire much more than was reported.
So, I come back to the idea of Israel having a tactical victory. Fact, Israel failed to get the decapitation, chaos, and collapse they were hoping for as a result of the sneak attack amid negotiations.
(Israel’s sneak attack instead of causing chaos & collapse, has had the opposite effect: Iranians have rallied in support of the government in a nationalistic wave of feeling.)
Fact, Netanyahu failed to spur the United States into a regime change war which I believe was the original objective for the plan all along (it was a long-shot to get regime change from the first strike, but Israel sold it to Trump as a sure thing).
Each side has significant deterrence.
Perhaps, that can lead to more stability, not less.
Next time (hopefully there won’t be) Israel will likely suffer even more damage to a point of criticality.
We don’t want to go there as it’s not in United States interest to see future attacks against Israel or Iran.
Peace is in United States interest in the Middle East, not war.
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