Key Points and Summary – New analysis reveals Russia’s massive summer offensive has been a colossal failure, resulting in microscopic land gains at the cost of soaring casualties.
-Total Russian casualties have surged to as high as 1.4 million by October 2025, with an estimated five Russians now being killed for every one Ukrainian.
Putin Back in 2009. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Despite this enormous expenditure of manpower, Moscow has failed to capture any major settlements, and at its current pace, it would take another five years to occupy the Donbas.
-The grinding attrition is crippling Russia’s war effort, even as diplomatic tensions rise following a contentious White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy.
Russian Losses Grow Amid Miniscule Land Gains in Ukraine War
Russia’s biggest offensive since 2022 has yielded microscopic gains at colossal cost.
Fresh research finds that Moscow’s summer campaign barely shifted its front with Ukraine, even as the Kremlin prepares for a Budapest summit with U.S President Donald Trump.
New analysis from The Economist, which has taken into account satellite behavior, frontline shifts and hundreds of casualty evaluations, suggests that Russian losses are growing, but their battlefield gains are not.
Moscow’s losses reached approximately 640,000–877,000 soldiers between the launch of the full-scale invasion in 2022 and January 2025.
Around 137,000 to 228,000 of these casualties are estimated to have been fatalities.
The analysis also shows that losses have risen by some 60% to 984,000–1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000–480,000 deaths, by October 13th.
But this shows that Russia seems to be expending an increasing number of its men and resources, for very little gain on the ground.
Moscow has not managed to occupy any major Ukrainian settlements since the first year of its invasion.
If its operation continues at its current rate, it will take Russia another half a decade to establish total occupation over the four regions of eastern Ukraine that it claims.
Massed assaults have become near-suicidal due to Ukraine’s prowess in drones and precision fire.
This means that Moscow is forced to send small units into kill zones for miniscule advances. The UALosses database cited by The Economist also finds that Ukrainian fatalities have been slowing since Autumn 2024.
The site lists some 8,668 identified Ukrainian fatalities in 2025. While the actual tally is probably much higher, as the thousands of missing soldiers are not accounted for, if it were even double the current estimate, it would still estimate that roughly five Russians are now being killed for every Ukrainian.
This comes amid news that Washington-Kyiv talks are once again on rocky ground.
The Financial Times reports that Friday’s White House meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy devolved into a shouting match, with Trump pressing Kyiv to cede the entire Donbas and at one point tossing aside frontline maps. He ended up reverting to backing a freeze along current lines, an idea which the Kremlin continues to refuse.
The Institute for the Study of War also notes that Russia lacks the means to envelop the fortress belt there at speed. Handing over the Donetsk oblast would let Moscow avoid years of bloody fighting and reposition for deeper strikes into Ukraine.
A ceasefire which allows Russia to gain land it never managed to occupy after 2022 could simply reset the battlefield in its favor.
The weapons debate is central. Zelenskyy pitched a “drones-for-Tomahawks” swap last week, while Trump has called deep-strike use of such missiles an “escalation”.
Naturally, Moscow has fiercely denounced the idea. Still Zelenskyy has already claimed that Ukraine continues aiming to secure the purchase of 25 Patriot air-defense systems from the U.S., to help reduce the impact of Russia’s continued bombardment.
The arithmetic now suggests Kyiv ought to cultivate patience over panic.
Russia’s summer surge consumed a lot of people and power for little more than marginal map changes.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies are debating game-changing air defense and possible long-range strike options. If Western support holds and Ukraine preserves its lines, the war’s center of gravity could pressure Putin’s maximalist war aims into collapse.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
More Military
Russia’s ‘Black Hole’ Kilo-Class Submarine Has a Message for the U.S. Navy
How a Russian Pilot Defected With A Mach 2 MiG-29 Fulcrum Fighter
The F-4 Phantom II Has a Message for Any Air Force on Earth
The F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Has a Message For Any Air Force on Earth
