The Coming Crisis for the Republican Party

Key Points – The Republican Party confronts an uncertain future beyond President Trump’s second term, with no clear MAGA successor for 2028 and potential vulnerabilities in the 2026 midterms stemming from economic anxieties and controversial policies.

-While Vice President JD Vance is a prominent name, other figures like Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum are also mentioned as potential contenders.

-A core challenge will be translating Trump’s nationalist-populist MAGA ideology into coherent, broadly appealing policies without his unique personal magnetism, particularly on complex domestic issues like entitlement reform.

-Failure to navigate this transition could risk the GOP’s future electoral viability.

What Does the Future Hold for the Republican Party?

While the Democrats suffer from a lack of clear leadership, policy, and ideology, the Republicans will have trouble too in the coming years without President Donald Trump.

Keeping the House and Senate in GOP hands is not assured in the upcoming midterm elections. Trump will not be on the presidential ballot in 2028 for the first time since 2016. He has no apparent heir other than Vice President JD Vance. Without a clear leader of MAGA, the future of the GOP is hanging in the balance.

Trump has enjoyed a surge of support in opinion polls measuring his approval lately. Can this be enough to carry over to the midterm voting in 2026? The GOP is still smarting from some self-inflicted damage from unpopular federal personnel cuts and agency closures from Elon Musk’s DOGE wrecking ball.

The economy’s GDP growth dropped down into negative territory. And the jury is still out on his tariffs that could create higher prices for ordinary Americans who shop at Wal-Mart and Costco.

So what is next for the Republican party? Creating economic growth and new jobs without inflation is important. A weak economy is one of the reasons Kamala Harris lost to Trump. Plus, many voters see the GOP as lacking compassion and empathy, especially toward federal workers.

Can the Party Still Use Immigration as a Rallying Cry?

Immigration was another winning issue for the Republicans in 2024, but some court rulings have hurt Trump’s plans to deport as many illegal immigrants who have committed violent crimes as possible. Most Americans support sending criminal migrants back to their home of origin, but with court decisions that emphasize the need for due process, the deportation actions will take longer than originally thought. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) remains unpopular in some cities and counties and there are still sanctuaries that refuse to work with ICE for deportation efforts.

The Constitutionality of MAGA Is in Question

This has handcuffed Trump’s hardline immigration policies and frustrated the president. Democrats do not believe Trump respects the Constitution – especially the principles of separation of powers and checks and balances. Future Republican leaders must learn from these lessons that the founding fathers laid down in our original governing document.

The Next Leader of the Party Is Not Clear

Speaking of the future, who is going to run for president in 2028 under the Republican banner? It is difficult to foresee Vance turning down a run. He would be next in line, but sometimes vice presidents do not compete as well as expected. Just take a look at former Vice President Mike Pence, who ran for president in 2024 and ended up dropping out.

Former Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley may not want to take another bite of the apple. Same for South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Governor Ron DeSantis is going through some trials and tribulations in his home state and may not have the momentum or money to run again.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is an intriguing choice and the former senator from Florida has acquitted himself well as the lead diplomat for Trump. He is also acting national security advisor showing he can take on numerous responsibilities with an aptitude for hard work. He may not have the MAGA credentials that Trump world loves, but he would be a steady candidate who has previously faced the bright lights of a presidential run.

One dark horse candidate would be Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, who is seen as an affable personality with MAGA credentials. Burgum thus far has taken the reigns of his department forcefully and is off to a good start as an agency leader. Other people mentioned for a White House run are Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and Virginia Governor Glenn Younkin. Noem has been assigned a job title that is unpopular and has taken on the derisive nickname “ICE Barbie.” Younkin does not have national name recognition.

Is the Movement In Danger?

The other questions have to do with the MAGA movement itself and future politics, ideology, and policy. This nationalist and populist ideology is difficult to translate into concrete policies. It is a slash and burn mix of economic freedom and perpetual peace in foreign policy. Vance is good at being a megaphone for MAGA, but he often just parrots Trump’s talking points. The MAGA faithful are often hard to predict and are sometimes at odds with the establishment of the Republican party, plus the Trumpers hate globalists and neoconservatives. Name calling does not win elections or grant the ability to govern well.

The potential candidates listed above do not have Trump’s ability to insult opponents, tear down institutions, take on the administrative state, and entertain the crowd with humor and levity.

Foreign Policy May Not Change

MAGA may never be the same without Trump even though the party has been re-made under his leadership. In foreign policy, the Republicans will continue to be the party of peace and restraint. But the grand strategy is also Reaganesque with a yearning for strong defense spending and military lethality over political correctness. Rubio will be able to articulate this, but he may not have the chops for domestic policy.

Here is where the future of MAGA is up in the air. Republicans like Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and to a lesser extent Texas Senator Ted Cruz (who could run for president) want the Republican brand to be representative of the working class. What does that mean in terms of ideology and policy on the domestic side? Entitlement programs must be reformed for them to survive, but this hurts low-income families if benefits are cut or payroll taxes are raised.

So, there are many question marks for the GOP. Who will take the leadership mantle? It appears the party has a deep bench but they may not be sufficiently MAGA. Foreign policy ideology is etched in stone for the immediate future, but is the coalition of working class underdogs along with rural and small town voters still a winning combination in the voting booth?

We will know more from the midterms if the elections will be a referendum on Trump and MAGA knowing that he will not be on the ballot in 2028. With a loss in the presidential election that year, the Republicans could end up being in the political wilderness as the “Dr. No” party that is only good for obstructing the Democrat agenda.

That would be worst-case scenario. This would be just fine with the Left and their allies in the mainstream media – the death of MAGA and the GOP being forced to become an opposition party only and finally losing its place as a powerful movement that wins elections.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.