F-35 Post-Election: Will Canada Stick With the Stealth Jet? In the wake of Canada’s Liberal Party election victory, the question now is whether or not the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney will stick with his military’s plan to procure the US-made F-35 stealth fighter aircraft.
F-35 for Canada?
Two weeks ago, the PM and Liberal Leader said he had previously ordered a “speedy review of the F-35 contracts,” and pushed back on reporting that this re-assessment of the jet’s procurement had not even started.
Carney had been the PM for only a month at this point, but said he had already issued the order for a program review around the time that he assumed the office from outgoing leader Justin Trudeau.
“That instruction will be carried out,” Carney had told reporters during an election rally in Montreal prior to the voting. “We’re in caretaker mode as a government. Our expectation of the civil service is that they are proceeding on these fronts. We’ll do it as rapidly as possible, as necessary.”
The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) had planned to acquire 88 F-35A models for a total cost of $19 billion.
However, the program’s procurement structure requires the aircraft to be delivered in stages, which has Canada initially committing only to the first 16 units of the total acquisition.
Trade War and F-35
Canada’s government had ordered a reassessment of the program after US President Donald Trump began a trade war with Canada (along with much of the rest of the world) and had stated if relations between the two nations become increasingly contentious Ottawa could look for another supplier for its next-generation combat aircraft.
“We’re taking delivery of a number of F-35s already under the existing contract,” Carney said earlier this month. “What we’re reviewing, in effect, is the back end of the contract to ensure that we’re getting value for money, that we’re sure that we’re maximizing not just our ability to protect Canada, but the economic benefits here in Canada – and we are considering it in the context of alternatives.”
The F-35 Could Get Dumped
Alternatives that have been mentioned recently are the Swedish Saab JAS-39E/F Gripen and France’s Dassault Rafale F5, both of which had been vying to win the Canadian tender prior to the F-5’s selection.
The Gripen, made for the near-arctic conditions in Sweden could be a better fit operationally in Canada’s very similar climate.
The Gripen had finished second in that fighter competition, and as part of the industrial participation package the Swedish company offered was a proposal for Canada’s aerospace sector to produce some subassemblies of the aircraft.
Selecting the Rafale that could give a boost to the Liberals in solidifying their position in this new government. A party needs 172 seats to secure an absolute majority in the Canadian Parliament, but Carney’s party won only 168, leaving them needed four more to form a government.
The next-largest opposition party grouping is the pro-French Bloc Québécois (BQ), which with 23 seats would be more than enough for the Liberals to have a secure majority position. A Rafale procurement could potentially cement that partnership.
What is the Alternate Path Forward?
Carney’s first foreign trip as the PM was to Europe, during which he held discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been aggressively promoting export sales of France’s and other EU nations’ defense products. That “buy European” lobbying has been echoed by the UK Labour Party leader and PM Keir Starmer who Carney also met with.
The Canadian leader held similar discussions with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He later stated on 17 March at a London press conference that Canada was looking for options to participate in the EU’s new defense procurement plan.
“That is of interest to us as Canada, as a potential alternative supplier,” Carney stated to the media. “It creates the potential to create supply chains that meant that Canadian companies are participating in the development of these defense systems and we are actively exploring…potential participation.”
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
