Key Points and Summary – Political friction between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump has put Canada’s planned purchase of 88 F-35A stealth fighters “under review,” raising the possibility of a switch to the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen.
-The Gripen offers a significantly lower operational cost ($7.5K per hour vs. the F-35’s $33K). However, canceling the F-35 deal now would create a logistical nightmare for Canada, which has already committed funds.
-Furthermore, the Gripen is a 4th-generation fighter that relies on an American engine, making a switch to spite Trump a self-defeating move that would leave Canada with a less capable aircraft.
Could Canada Pick the JAS 39 Gripen Over the F-35?
For all of the controversies (especially the price tag) surrounding the US-made F-35 Lightning II 5th-Generation stealth fighter jet (the current pride and joy of Lockheed Martin’s legendary “Skunk Works” division), it is nonetheless an extremely popular foreign military sales (FMS) product amongst the allies of the United States, with nine foreign countries currently in possession of the warbird and nine others have placed orders for it and are awaiting delivery.
Among the nine nations in the latter category is Canada. In January 2023, the Canadian government signed a $19 billion contract to purchase eighty-eight F-35As to revitalize and modernize the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) aging fighter jet fleet (which currently consists of seventy-two CF-188A Hornets and seven F/A-18As). However, due to the well-publicized political rift between Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister and America’s Republican President Donald Trump, Ottawa is reportedly having second thoughts about buying the Lockheed Martin jet. The official legalese term being applied to this potential vacillation is “the process of reviewing the contract.”
If Prime Minister Carney and the RCAF brass do indeed decide to renege on the Lightning II, what platform would they fall back on as an alternative? One potential candidate tossed around quite a bit is the Swedish-built Saab JAS 39 Gripen (“Griffin”). But how realistic an option would the Gripen really be?
RCAF Option 1: The Case for the JAS 39
While obviously not as sophisticated or prestigious as the Lightning II, the Gripen certainly confers certain advantages for the RCAF. The most obvious example would be the cost differential: the F-35’s operational cost per flight hour is a mind-numbing $33K, whilst the JAS 39’s hourly rate (so to speak) is a mere $7.5K (at least according to Saab’s claims).
In addition, the JAS 39 is designed for short takeoff and landing operations, which allows it to operate from improvised airstrips. Moreover, the Swedish warbird is designed for interoperability with allied forces via shared datalinks and standardized communication systems; the efficacy of this interoperability has been field-proven by Hungarian and Czech pilots conducting air policing operations over the Baltic since 2004.
And from a political goodwill standpoint, the purchase of a Swedish-made jet, such as the JAS 39, would be a nice belated “welcome aboard” present from Canada to the Scandinavian nation; the latter finally officially joined NATO on March 7, 2024.
RCAF Option 2: The Case for Sticking with the F-35
One of the most outspoken and passionate proponents for Canada sticking with the F-35 is Billie Flynn, a retired RCAF lieutenant colonel who served in uniform for twenty-three years and then spent seventeen years as an F-35 test pilot for Skunk Works.
Mind you, Lt. Col. Flynn is no fan of Donald Trump by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, Billie bluntly opposes the notion of the contract being canceled due to petty political squabbles.
As he recently stated on his LinkedIn page, “The ‘Armageddonists’ will be so disappointed, but in the end, the Canadian F-35 contract will not be cancelled…the final verdict will confirm that the Lockheed Martin F-35 contract should continue as planned…no legitimate, experienced expert will dissent.”
It should be noted that legal commitments to transfer funds for the first batch of 16 F-35s have been accepted. Ergo, any would-be withdrawal from the contract would only concern the remaining 72 airframes. Changing those proverbial horses in midstream would be a logistical nightmare, to say the least, as it would necessitate the standing up of two pipelines to purchase spare parts, dual training programs for RCAF pilots, and separate doctrines for operational employment.
If petty cross-border politics were to prevail and Mr. Carney were to renege on the remaining portion of the F-35 contract as a “protest vote” (as it were) against Donald Trump and American foreign policy, the choice of the JAS 39 would defeat the purpose: its Swedish nationality withstanding, the Gripen is actually dependent on an American powerplant, namely the General Electric F414-GE-39E, the same engine that powers the Super Hornet!
And whilst the interoperability of the Gripen is all well & good, it’s still overshadowed by the interoperability of the F-35, as no less than ten NATO nations currently participate in the F-35 program. Bear in mind, the JAS 39, for all of its merits, is still a mere 4th Generation fighter. And if (heaven forbid) WWIII were to indeed break out between NATO and revanchist Russia, the RCAF fighter jocks will almost certainly want to have the same 5th-Generation capabilities as their nine other counterparts, especially if they end up engaging, say, with Russia’s 5th-generation fighters, which include the Sukhoi Su-57, also known as the “Felon,” and the Su-75, also known as the “Checkmate.”
Additional Considerations
Meanwhile, going back to the Carney v. Trump squabbles, there’s now a hopeful sign that cooler heads are starting to prevail. On June 29, 2025, the Canadian government rescinded its controversial Digital Services Tax (DST) to resuscitate moribund trade talks with the US.
Though only one small step, it’s still a step in the right direction, and presumably reduces the likelihood of Ottawa backing out on the remaining portion of the F-35 deal.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU).
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