With the 2026 Midterms less than six months away, it is high time that the ruling Republican Party, generally, and the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) coalition, specifically, prepare itself for what is likely to be a decisive defeat at the polls in November.
That’s because the scion of the MAGA movement, President Donald J. Trump, initiated a deeply unpopular war of choice against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28. Nearly four months into that unpopular war, despite the president’s (false) claims to the contrary, the United States has achieved none of its grand strategic objectives.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team performs an aerial demonstration at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas, March 8, 2023. The F-35 Demo Team performs flights regularly to maintain flying certifications and to uphold and maintain their mission and Air Force recruiting standards. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.
And the war does not appear to be ending. It simply seems as though the conflict is entering a new, strange, frozen phase. More ominously, the longer the war continues, the greater the economic damage to both the world and, in the context of the impending Midterms, to the United States.
The scariest part of this reality is that the true costs–the real economic pain–have not yet been felt. Because of the nature of the Iran War, the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz (which is ongoing), the worst economic pain will not likely be felt by most Americans until later this summer, going into the Fall–the precise moment when the GOP must make the case to skeptical voters that the economy has thrived under their leadership.
The Economic Fallout Is Already Here
Newsflash: the economy has not thrived under President Trump’s leadership. Even before the outbreak of Trump’s war of choice, the economy was puttering along. Granted, it was doing better initially under Trump than it was under his much-maligned predecessor, former President Joe Biden.
Ever since the war, though, the country’s economy has been doing worse under Trump than it was under Biden.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, notably to fuel prices, are already being felt. The most important aspect, though, of the spike in fuel prices has been the drastic increase in diesel fuel prices.
On average, the price of diesel fuel in the United States has increased by nearly 50 percent since the start of the Iran War.
That’s important because literally every supply chain–especially food–runs off diesel-powered trucks for transportation. Higher-than-average diesel prices, especially over protracted periods, will not only delay essential products across the supply chain but also disrupt downstream businesses and cause transportation firms to contract.
Generic Oil Tanker Image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
As for the average price of fuel for ordinary people, the national average for gas is around $4.50. That represents a nearly 52 percent increase from before the war began on February 28. President Trump can dismiss these figures by claiming he had no choice but to start hostilities with Iran lest they be allowed to acquire nukes (and, therefore, launch a nuclear war on their neighbors).
But that claim is untested. What’s more, the forty-seventh president never even tried to make the case for war to the American public.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Return of Stagflation
The longer gas prices remain as high as they are, the more likely the inflation rate will increase. There has already been a dangerous elevation in the inflation rate to around 3.8 percent. Most economists want inflation to remain at around two percent. Indeed, President Trump had brought it down to near that figure after it had remained chronically high under President Biden.
One of Trump’s key campaign promises–and one of the reasons so many supported his reelection in 2024–was his vow to lower inflation. He was doing it. Until the forty-seventh president chose war with Iran.
JPMorgan assesses that the inflation rate could exceed 5% by midsummer if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Meanwhile, Eric Bolling, a prominent Trump ally and host on the popular conservative news outlet, Real America’s Voice, told me several weeks ago that he believed inflation could reach between six and seven percent by the middle of the summer unless Trump got the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately. Bolling’s first career was as a highly successful oil trader.
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon taxis to be disarmed after returning from a flight during Combat Archer UK at RAF Lakenheath, England, April 15, 2025. Combat Archer UK was one of six elements in the Combat Weapons Systems Evaluation Program, typically held in the U.S. By hosting Combat Archer UK in Europe, U.S. Air Forces Europe saved millions of dollars, allowing them to enhance the mission in other capacities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Zachary Jakel)
Whether the inflation rate is five percent or seven percent, the fact remains that the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, who was specifically picked by President Trump to ensure lower interest rates, will raise interest rates if inflation remains above two percent.
If Warsh decides to abandon his training as an economist and make the purely political decision to keep interest rates where they are–or to lower them–as the inflation rate is spiking, due to the exploding cost of fuel thanks to Trump’s war, then he will spark a miserable economic condition known as “stagflation.”
For those old enough to remember the 1970s, that era was defined by the scourge of “stagflation.” Essentially, a stagflationary period is defined by slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising inflation. In a stagflationary situation, the Federal Reserve is essentially useless because that perfect combination of misery cannot be ameliorated by the usual tools at the Fed’s disposal.
Paradoxically, any central bank solution aimed at fixing one of the three problems that define a stagflationary scenario risks worsening the other two.
The Midterm Collapse Waiting to Happen
One of the surest ways to correct for stagflation is the one thing that President Trump will vehemently oppose (it’s one of the main reasons behind Trump’s firing of his previous Fed Chairman Jerome Powell): raising interest rates to curb demand and, therefore, lower inflation.
Trump understands the political ramifications if his new Fed chairman were to do that. It would be the death knell for the GOP in the coming Midterms. Then again, Fed Chairman Warsh has no choice but to do the responsible thing–even if it is the least politically expedient move.
Anyway, all this is becoming the new normal, not because of a natural disaster or the failures of Trump’s political opponents. The US economy is set to go through a massive course correction that destroys much wealth and damages many ordinary people–possibly irreparably–only because the forty-seventh president chose to start an unpopular war based on very bad assumptions.
Currently, the economy is teetering. It has not yet contracted significantly. The president and the GOP are essentially riding on fumes politically. Should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, though, the United States economy would contract rapidly. We will likely face a severe recession here. People will blame the president and his party come November.
And that, my friends, will lead to a Democrat victory most definitely in the United States House of Representatives. Depending on the severity of the economic decline caused by Trump’s war, the GOP could lose the United States Senate, too.
The End of MAGA Dominance?
If that scenario plays out, by next year’s time, a Democratic Party-controlled Congress and Senate would undoubtedly spend their time investigating and waging unremitting political warfare on the Trump administration.
With the economy in freefall, Democrat attacks would land much better than they might ordinarily hit. That will certainly lead to the president’s impeachment. It might not result in his removal from office.
But it would ensure that he was a true lame duck the remainder of his second (and final) term.
During that time, between the utterly collapsing financial situation in the United States, coupled with the prospect of greater wars, and the ceaseless Democrat assaults on the White House, the long-term prospects of the MAGA movement as the dominant force within the GOP would be gone.
Most voters will, whether fairly or not, blame President Trump for their plight. They will undoubtedly rally to his opponents. And whatever remains of Trump’s MAGA coalition will be viewed not as a dynamic political force in American politics. They will be seen with derision and effectively become marginalized, as even many of their rank-and-file members worked to distance themselves from Trump and his presidency due to the economic collapse caused by an unpopular Mideast war of choice that their president initiated.
The only thing that might stave off a total blue wave in 2026 on the order of the one that crushed President George W. Bush in 2006 is all the redistricting that Red States are currently doing. At the same time, though, the redistricting schemes being enacted by both Republican- and Democratic-Party-dominated states are so controversial that, in many cases, the courts are already hindering these carefully laid plans by the two parties.
At this point, because the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed for as long as it has, there will be significant disruptions to America’s critical supplies of energy, agricultural materials, and rare earth minerals, regardless of whether President Trump can reopen the waterway soon. If the closure persists, however, the economic damage will be grave enough to replicate the worst aspects of the Great Recession of 2008.
That will, in turn, ensure the decisive electoral defeat of the MAGA coalition and the permanent marginalization of this movement on the political fringes due to the blame it will receive from most voters for the failures of Trump’s second term.
Some variation of this near future will happen. It is just a question of how severe. Bad policies and poor decisions by leaders have consequences–even in a place as divorced from reality as modern America. That doesn’t bode well, unfortunately, for the nationalist-populist wing of American politics.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a Senior National Security Editor. Recently, Weichert became the editor of the “NatSec Guy” section at Emerald. TV. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert hosts The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase at any bookstore. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
