When President Donald Trump assumed office less than two years ago, he promised the country that it would soon enter a “Golden Age.” But now, after six months of war with Iran, gasoline prices are increasing, inflation is increasing again, and Republicans are fearful that they will lose control of Congress in November.
Before the war began, gasoline was below $3 per gallon, and Americans were hopeful that the country was on the road to economic recovery after years of pandemic-related disruption — but the war, which began in February, has disrupted energy markets and dramatically reduced the amount of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has also averaged around $90 per barrel so far this year, compared with roughly $70 in 2025.
President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order alongside Kid Rock in the Oval Office, Monday, March 31, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Not all of America’s economic problems can be attributed to the war, but after half a year of conflict, there are three important economic measures that show just how dramatically the world has changed — and polling now suggests Republicans are on track to lose control of Congress, and Trump is destined to govern via executive order for the final two years of his term.
Gas Prices Are Up
One of the most dramatic differences between today’s economy and 2025 is the price of gas. The national average of regular gasoline was around $2.98 per gallon before the war, but today it is hovering above $4 per gallon. That’s an increase of more than a dollar in less than a year.
The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the primary driver of that.
Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil moved through the waterway, and today, Gulf suppliers are desperately moving oil through secretive convoys, alternative routes, and entirely different pipelines just to ensure it reaches the international market.
And those efforts are generally failing, with far less leaving the region and the global economy still managing a persistent supply shortage.
The economic consequences of that are serious and extend well beyond the price of gas at the pump. Higher transportation and energy costs are working their way into the price of food and other goods, increasing costs for both businesses and households now. Prices are set to continue surging through the next year, too.
And with the midterms approaching, it’s bad news for the Republicans. President Trump knows that the Democrats have all the weapons they need to figuratively beat their Republican opponents in upcoming debates, and the polls are already showing the Republicans in trouble.
Inflation Is Rising
The second most obvious indicator that Trump’s Iran war is causing problems at home is inflation.
Annual consumer price inflation was 2.4% in January, the final full month before the war began.
By July, the latest month with complete data, inflation had risen to 3.4%. Energy is one of the clearest reasons why.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, energy prices were 14.7% higher in July than they had been a year earlier, while gasoline prices were up by roughly one quarter. Food prices were also 3% higher.
The Iran war is part of the problem, but there are other contributing factors – and they’re generally Trump’s fault, too.
Tariffs and domestic economic policy are major influences, though Republicans may argue that the president’s tariff policies will prove a long-term benefit for the U.S.
Time will tell, and in the meantime, Trump and his party will need to convince voters that the measures he has approved over the last two years are worth it in the long run.
Even if the U.S. seems to be in minor and major trade wars with countries all over the world, including one of its closest geographical neighbors, Canada.
Americans Are Not Optimistic About the Economy
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index stood at 56.6 in February, but its preliminary August reading dropped to 51 after previously declining to 55.2 in July.
Separately, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also fell in August to 89.4, with expectations for future income, employment and business conditions deteriorating overall.
In short, the figures show that Americans are not optimistic about the economy.
And this is a problem for Republicans because voters don’t experience the economy through GDP reports or statistics displayed on television news reports. They base their opinion on personal experiences, including the price of groceries and gasoline, and whether they believe their financial position is improving.
The polls show the Republicans losing the argument, too.
An Emerson College poll recently showed Democrats leading Republicans by eight percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, 50.7% to 43%. And at this point, with Iran still defiant and the oil crisis only getting worse, it’s hard to imagine those polls shifting dramatically in favor of the Republicans any time soon.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
