Since Donald Trump arrived on the political scene, one of his political weaknesses has been that his coattails have never carried over when he’s not been on the ballot. Because of that, and because incumbent presidents’ parties nearly always lose seats in their first midterm elections — and because Trump is historically unpopular — all signs point to the Democrats winning in November’s midterm elections thanks to the Iran war and other issues, which will likely win them back the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate as well.
According to Nate Silver, Democrats lead on the generic ballot by an average of 6.6 points, a consistent lead for weeks. Some of the polls that make up that average are higher than that number, and some are lower, but every poll included has the Democrats ahead.
President Donald J. Trump signs an Executive Order creating an anti-fraud task force to be led by Vice President JD Vance, Monday, March 16, 2026, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the Mack Trucks facility in Macungie, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, June 23, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
And with the Republicans holding a slim House majority as it is, it’s considered more likely that Democrats will at least win back the House.
However, the Trump-led GOP hasn’t given up on hanging on to Congress, and they’re using various strategies to do so.
Redistricting, Make Believe, and Much More
Both parties pushed mid-decade redistricting earlier this year to gain more seats, and while the efforts produced fewer competitive seats, the overall effect seems to have favored the GOP.
Trump has attempted other efforts as well.
The president has been pushing the “SAVE America Act,” a piece of legislation that would restrict voting, throughout the year, although the legislation lacks the votes to overcome a Senate filibuster. He has also signed executive orders to restrict citizenship verification for people voting by mail, and the Supreme Court handed him a victory on that matter this week.
There’s also the matter of make-believe.
According to The Daily Beast, Trump said in a Fox News interview this week that he wants his supporters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot this November, even though he isn’t.
“There’s a theory that when Trump’s on the ballot they win, when he’s off the ballot, the people don’t go to vote. And I’m asking the people to get out and vote and pretend I’m on the ballot,” Trump said in the Fox interview. “And if we don’t, our country is going to be in sad shape because we’re going to go through a lot of things.”
This matches a story in The Atlantic this week, which revealed that Trump proposed making the midterms a referendum on himself, including a Trump-focused ad buy, funded through the Trump Super PAC’s $400 million war chest.
This was discussed in a recent Oval Office meeting.
Republican strategists, speaking to the outlet, were skeptical.
“When the issues that you typically campaign on don’t move voters—or voters are pissed off at you about those issues—the question becomes: What do you campaign on?” one strategist told The Atlantic.
Trump, it’s clear, has decided to nationalize the race and make it about him and his presidency — despite an approval rating in the 30s. Trump’s argument is that Democrats are seeking to nationalize the race and focus it on Trump, so the GOP should do that as well.
Another thing the GOP is doing that isn’t typical for a midterm? An off-year Republican Convention.
Unconventional
In September, the GOP will host a two-day convention in Dallas to make their case for November. But according to the Daily Beast, some in the GOP worry the idea will backfire.
“I’ve heard people say, why are we doing this? What’s going on?” Reb Wayne, a Republican consultant in Texas, told CNN this week. “It was a good idea at the time, but as we’ve gotten closer to it, I’m not sure it’s going to serve much benefit.”
Some complained that the two-day convention will go right up against two opening games of the NFL season, which means it likely won’t get as many eyeballs as Trump would prefer.
The Republican National Committee, however, struck a more optimistic tone.
“The upcoming Midterm Convention will showcase the momentum behind President Trump’s agenda and Republicans’ record of delivering real results for the American people,” RNC spokeswoman Natalie Baldassarre told the Beast. “While Democrats remain divided and distracted, Republicans are united behind a shared vision.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
