Saudi Arabia’s emergency route around the Strait of Hormuz has been knocked largely out of action just as another Iran-aligned force tightens its grip on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.
Saudi Arabia’s 745-mile East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from the Persian Gulf side to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, is now largely out of service due to last week’s slew of drone strikes.
B-2A, serial #88-0331, ‘Spirit of South Carolina’ of the 509th Bomb Wing, Air Force Global Strike Command, on the parking ramp at Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, during a visit April 11, 2017. The B-2A ‘stealth bomber’ visited the base to allow hundreds of personnel who work in direct support of the aircraft program through continuous software upgrades to see it in person and better understand the aircrafts’ role in the nation’s defense. (U.S. Air Force photo/Greg L. Davis)
A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit, deployed from the 131st Bomb Wing, Missouri Air National Guard, takes off from Andersen Air Base Guam after completing a hot pit refuel on Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, Sept. 10, 2024. Hot pit refueling involves providing fuel to an aircraft immediately after it lands and engines running to minimize time spent on the ground and extend power projection capabilities. Bomber missions continue to contribute to joint force lethality and deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating the USAF’s ability to operate anywhere in the world at any time in support of the National Defense Strategy. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Eric Summers Jr.)
It is expected to be mostly offline for three to five weeks, two regional officials informed the Associated Press on Monday.
The pipeline, which can usually transport up to 7 million barrels of oil per day, had been serving as Saudi Arabia’s key backup route amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters said Riyadh had rerouted some 4 million barrels via the pipe.
Industry sources reported that stocks already waiting at Yanbu could remain there for five to seven days, but no longer if the line stayed shut.
On Monday, Brent crude soared above $108 a barrel, up more than 3%, as traders scrambled to respond to attacks that imperiled Saudi exports for the near future.
Reuters also estimated that this shutdown had put around 4% of global crude supply at risk.
The Houthis Ascendant
In recent days, the Yemen-based Iranian terror proxy, the Houthis, also captured the ports of Mokha and Mayyun Island.
These areas sit along the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow gap between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. AP said on Monday that Houthi forces had taken Greater and Lesser Hanish islands also, putting this crucial shipping lane at risk.
Earlier this year, the Council on Foreign Relations think tank warned of the impact of the Houthis renewing their attacks, noting that Bab el-Mandeb carried about 12% of all seaborne-traded oil in the first half of 2023.
Ahmed Nagi, an expert on Yemeni politics, told CFR that a closure of this waterway would “immediate[ly]’” impact global energy flows.
Iran’s ‘Power Projection’ in Red Sea
The Houthis, a Shia extremist group, have been accused of using child soldiers. Its Arabic-language slogan translates as, “God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse be upon the Jews, Victory to Islam.”
The Iranian regime supplies them with weapons, training and intelligence that have bolstered them hugely.
Gulf analyst Eleonora Ardemagni has described how the group has helped the Islamic Republic “project power into the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.”
After a 2022 truce, the Saudi-Houthi conflict had largely been frozen. However, back in July, the Houthis started attacks on Saudi Arabia again, specifically targeting shipping lanes linking Riyadh to the Red Sea.
Houthis Target Saudi Arabia With Missiles and Drones
Over the weekend, the Houthis claimed another missile-and-drone attack on Saudi military targets.
Former British ambassador to Yemen Edmund Fitton-Brown told The Independent that the terror group thought “the moment has come to call the Saudi bluff.”
He claimed that the group “thinks the Saudis have lost the stomach for the fight,” and that fresh attacks could force Riyadh into concessions.
Bloomberg columnist Marc Champion identified the danger in that strategy Monday: the more effective Washington’s “economic strangulation” becomes, the more risk Iran’s rulers may be prepared to accept in trying to break it.
That dynamic is now visible on both sides of Saudi Arabia. Iran continues to threaten traffic through Hormuz, while the Houthis have acquired far wider leverage over the alternative Red Sea route.
Oman Talks Now On Hold
There is no obvious diplomatic off-ramp between the U.S., its allies and Iran for the time being.
There were previously suggestions that some form of ceasefire could be renewed in the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet on Monday, Oman said it would no longer host Iran and Gulf Arab states for talks on future arrangements in the waterway, which had been slated to take place today.
Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated that the summit had been paused “in the interests of consensus.”
Before Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran earlier this year, some 125 large commercial ships transited Hormuz daily.
Just 10 such vessels entered the Gulf over the weekend, while four left it.
Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply transited the key waterway prior to the current conflict.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
