U.S. President Donald Trump this week claimed that the war with Iran will end whenever he decides, as new figures show that the war has so far cost the United States more than $47 billion since it began on February 28.
The president made the comments during a speech at a campaign rally in Texas on October 27.
OVER NEVADA — A B-1B Lancer from the 37th Bomb Squadron, Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., streaks through the sky. Carrying the largest payload of both guided and unguided weapons in the Air Force inventory, the multi-mission Lancer is the backbone of America’s long-range bomber force. It can rapidly deliver massive quantities of precision and non-precision weapons against any adversary, anywhere in the world, at any time. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Lance Cheung)
U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons intercept two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers during exercise Amalgam Dart 21-2, March 23, 2021. The exercise will run from March 20-26 and range from the Beaufort Sea to Thule, Greenland and extend south down the Eastern Atlantic to the U.S. coast of Maine. Amalgam Dart 21-2 provides NORAD the opportunity to hone homeland defense skills as Canadian, U.S., and NATO forces operate together in the Arctic. A bi-national Canadian and American command, NORAD employs network space-based, aerial and ground based sensors, air-to-air refueling tankers, and fighter aircraft controlled by a sophisticated command and control network to deter, detect and defend against aerial threats that originate outside or within North American airspace. NATO E-3 Early Warning Aircraft, Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighter aircraft, CP-140 long-range patrol aircraft, CC-130 search and rescue and tactical aircraft, and a CC-150T air refueler; as well as U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft, KC-10 Extender refueler, KC-46 Pegasus, KC-135 Stratotanker, as well as C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft will participate in the exercise. (U.S. Air National Guard courtesy photo)
His comments come less than a week before Americans vote in the midterm elections and as Washington prepares to resume strikes against Iran.
President Trump told supporters during the speech that the conflict will end on his terms and whenever he decides it will end, but insisted that Iran must first provide assurances that it will never develop nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, polling data continues to show that the financial and economic burden of the war is becoming increasingly intolerable to American voters, and Iran continues to escalate its strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Says the War Could End Quickly
Speaking in Lubbock, Texas, Trump repeated a familiar claim that he controls when the war ends.
“Somebody asked me before, ‘When will the war in Iran end?’ I said, ‘Whenever I want it to end,’” Trump said.
The president also said that ending the conflict would be quick, but that Washington first needs a commitment from the regime that it will not develop or procure nuclear weapons.
The war is now in its eighth month, exactly the kind of prolonged conflict the president said he intended to avoid while in office, after initially predicting it might last only a matter of weeks.
War Costs Rise Beyond $47 Billion.
The war is becoming extremely costly, too—not just in terms of the economic fallout from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but in the direct cost to the U.S. taxpayer.
A new U.S. Central Command estimate from October 16, provided to Congress, shows the war has already cost about $47.1 billion.
According to reports, around $29 billion is required to replace expended munitions, while another $6.1 billion will cover the loss of equipment.
About $11.9 billion also covers additional operating expenses, including extended deployments of American personnel.
The estimate constitutes an increase of $3.5 billion over the estimate from early September, and it does not account for any of the damage done to U.S. military bases caused by Iranian attacks.
The Congressional Budget Office has also estimated that the war could continue to cost as much as $3 billion every month.
As voters decide which party should control Congress, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates the war has cost the average American family about $2,000 through higher energy prices and interest rates.
Washington Prepares to Resume Strikes
Despite rapidly rising costs, the Trump administration is preparing to resume military strikes.
Earlier this month, the New York Times reported that U.S. and Israeli military planners were preparing for a possible short but intensive operation against Iran after the midterm elections.
The preparations came as Washington continued to reinforce its regional military presence and move personnel from vulnerable U.S. installations in the Middle East.
Can Trump Really Decide When the War Ends?
President Donald Trump can end U.S. military operations whenever he chooses, but that does not necessarily mean that Iran would stop striking commercial ships and tankers.
On September 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposed a seven-day deal under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin nuclear negotiations, provided that Washington lifted its naval blockade, waived sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and agreed to a sweeping ceasefire deal that includes Lebanon.
The proposal also required the release of frozen Iranian assets held overseas and guarantees against new attacks.
On October 28, reports said Iran had offered to shorten the timeline to four days after sanctions relief. The proposal would, however, also require the United States to agree to a regional non-aggression deal.
Trump could theoretically meet Iran’s demands and quickly secure a negotiated end to the conflict, but Washington continues to insist on nuclear concessions that Tehran is still resisting.
That makes any such agreement unlikely under the current circumstances, and without fresh U.S. strikes.
Trump, then, may choose to launch new and devastating strikes against Iranian infrastructure — but there is still no guarantee that Tehran would not retaliate.
In fact, destroying even more Iranian infrastructure could encourage Tehran to escalate further.
If Iran has less to lose, there is little reason to believe the ideological regime would not continue to fight for as long as it can.
In fact, Iranian officials have even indicated that the regime would fight for generations to secure a victory against the United States.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
