Trump World Knows the Midterms Are Lost for GOP: President Donald Trump and the Republicans know that the upcoming midterm elections will be a challenge.
In fact, they almost certainly see the same polls everyone else does and know the GOP will likely lose control of both chambers in Congress.
Donald Trump. Image Credit: Gage Skidmore.
President Donald Trump plays golf in the Senior Club Championship at Trump National Golf Club Jupiter, Sunday, April 6, 2025, in Jupiter, Florida. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
But, with the president also conscious of the fact that ending the Iran War quickly would mean making concessions to Iran, his biggest supporters and allies are trying a new strategy: simply admitting that they are likely to lose, and pushing ahead with the goal of winning the war even at a political cost.
Lara Trump Speaks Out
Speaking to British journalist Harry Cole, Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, bluntly admitted that the war in Iran is likely to cost the Republicans the midterms — and that it’ll be worth it.
During an episode of Harry Cole Saves the West, Trump was asked about her outlook on the upcoming elections as the Iranians continue “dragging their feet on doing any form of deal.” Cole also suggested that the war could cost the president his legacy.
“Well, it could cost him these midterms,” Lara Trump said. “I think Donald Trump’s legacy has yet to be written and I think that, in a lot of ways, maybe – I still say he’s going to go down in history as one of the greatest presidents – if not, the greatest America has ever seen.”
During the interview, she also said the president “really hates the way things have gone” and wishes the war had ended more quickly.
Lara Trump added that the evidence suggests the Iranians are now deliberately holding out until the midterm elections are over.
“But you’re right, the Iranians are absolutely holding out until these midterm elections,” she continued. “They want to do everything they can to damage this president’s hopes of these midterms going his way because they think it’s going to give them an advantage.”
What Was Trump Thinking?
Trump, it seems, likely calculated that strategic bombing of Iranian military and nuclear sites may have been sufficient to force the regime to concede to his demands over the future of the country’s nuclear program. Waiting until after the midterms would cost him credibility, with Tehran knowing he had only two years left in office. But launching strikes and threatening the war before the midterms meant the Islamic regime knew he was serious and prepared to fight for longer. If those strikes had worked as Trump hoped, he’d have walked into the midterm elections with a victory under his belt.
Instead, the country is going to the polls as diesel prices hit record highs, the world suffers a continued global oil supply shock, inflation is up again, interest rates have been hiked, and Iran and its proxy groups are inflicting terror across the Gulf region and beyond.
It’s Not Just Lara Trump
Lara Trump is not the only prominent Republican talking openly about the possibility – or indeed the likelihood – of a major defeat for the Republicans.
Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina was clear in September that she believed her party would lose both chambers of Congress, predicting that the Republicans would lose and that the midterm will be a “bloodbath.”
And other Republicans have expressed pessimism about their prospects.
Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who is not seeking re-election, warned in early September that Trump himself had become an electoral liability for the party.
“I’m fearful that the president’s numbers are a ball and chain that will be hard to overcome,” he told the New York Times.
Behind closed doors, the concern appears widespread. Speaking to Axios on September 5, an unnamed senior Republican campaign official said that candidates had little choice but to run alongside the president despite concerns about his popularity.
Trump-backed Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton also reportedly complained privately in September that the midterm convention Trump convened had actually hurt Republican candidates, rather than reinvigorating the base as the president had hoped. Paxton reportedly told donors that after the Dallas event, “everybody’s numbers are down.”
And the Iran War is definitely part of the problem. Polls continue to show growing opposition to the war among most voters, and as prices increase across the board, voters are turning away from the Republican Party – with many likely to choose to stay home rather than simply vote for Democrats instead.
Republican Senate candidates Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ashley Hinson in Iowa even broke with President Trump in September, calling for the war to end quickly as fuel prices began to skyrocket.
Republicans have not fully conceded the elections, but most seem aware, at least privately, that their prospects aren’t looking good.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
