Trump Still ‘Underwater’ in Most Polls

Key Points – President Trump’s approval ratings have shown a modest improvement in May, with the RealClearPolling average showing 46.5% approval versus 49.7% disapproval as of May 19th.

-While still net negative overall in polls that are out publically, this is an uptick from April’s lows during intense tariff-related market volatility.

-Some Republican-leaning polls, like RMG Research, even place Trump in positive territory (52% approval).

-This slight rebound is likely due to a period of greater stability and a news cycle less dominated by controversial Trump administration actions.

-Recession fears have also marginally eased, though most polls still reflect overall public dissatisfaction with the president’s performance, particularly on the economy.

Trump’s Polling Slump Is Getting Better…But Not Cured

Is Donald Trump as popular now as he was when he first got back to the White House? No, he’s not. But there are signs that the president has rebounded from the lows of his approval ratings last month.

According to the RealClearPolling average as of Monday, Trump currently has an average approval rating of 46.5 percent and a disapproval rating of 49.7 percent. So while he still is underwater, with a spread of 3.2 percent. It’s the first time since the beginning of April that Trump’s disapproval rating has gone below 50 percent.

In late April, at the height of the tariff chaos, Trump had an average approval rating of 45.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.4 percent, per the RCP average.

Individual Polls

Newsweek reported over the weekend that, according to an RMG Research poll, Trump has a positive approval rating of 52 percent, with a disapproval rating of 48 percent, although RMG is a solidly Republican-leaning pollster. RMG does show a four-point improvement in Trump’s approval rating from the previous edition of the poll.

The RMG poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, formerly of Rasmussen Reports,  is included in the RCP average. Indeed, the poll has listed Trump as in positive territory every time the survey has been taken since his return to the White House, aside from one poll in early May that listed him as even.

The RCP average shows that polls have gotten narrower, with none of the recent polls outside of single digits.

The most recent Harvard-Harris poll shows Trump with a negative spread of just 1 point, while the Daily Mail has him even. Rasmussen Reports, another traditionally pro-Republican poll, has Trump in positive territory, at +3, but Reuters/Ipsos has Trump at -8, and Economist/YouGov has him at -7.

Diving In

One poll indicative of many recent ones was the latest from Reuters/Ipsos, released last week.

“The two-day poll showed 44% of respondents approved of the Republican leader’s performance, up from 42% in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey carried out April 25-27. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points,” Reuters said.

The poll also found that recession fears are beginning to ebb, after a great deal more talk about recession earlier this spring. Around 69 percent of respondents still say they fear a recession, which is still high, although it’s down from 76 percent the previous month.

“In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 59% of respondents said it would be Trump’s fault if the economy falls into recession this year, compared to 37% who said it would be Biden’s fault,” the poll said.

The Harvard-Harris poll, meanwhile, found that Trump’s approval rating has remained “steady.”

Trump was at a 47 percent approval rating in May, just one point down from the same period in April, and two points down from March.

One Theory About Polling

The New York Times over the weekend looked at what might be driving Trump’s recent polling improvements: “Some people are not paying attention.”

“Voters who have not heard much about some of the many major news events from the first 100 days of Mr. Trump’s second term have a higher opinion of the job he is doing, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll,” the Times said. “A little under half of the 42 percent of voters who approved of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president said they had not heard much about at least some of the ups and downs of his administration’s decisions.”

In May, unlike April, the tariff chaos and stock market volatility have often been out of the news, with other, non-Trump-related stories coming to the fore, including the election of a new pope, and now the news of former President Biden’s cancer diagnosis. But with all things Trump, that’s unlikely to remain the case for long.

About the Author: Stephen Silver

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter