It’s difficult to see how Iran’s predicament can improve in the context of its conflict with the United States and Israel.
The war is now in its eighth month, and an unfavorable situation seems to be getting worse for Tehran.
A U.S. Sailor, assigned to Airborne Command and Control Squadron 124, signals the launch of a Carrier Air Wing 8 E-2D Hawkeye aircraft on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), while underway in the Caribbean Sea, Nov. 29, 2025. U.S. military forces are deployed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility in support of Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR, Department of War-directed operations, and the president’s priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland. (U.S. Navy photo)
A U.S. Sailor inspects an aircraft catapult launch track on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the Ford-class USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), while underway in the Caribbean Sea, Nov. 25, 2025. U.S. military forces are deployed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility in support of Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR, Department of War-directed operations, and the president’s priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland. (U.S. Navy photo)
Its leaders have been killed, replaced by those who do not enjoy the same popularity.
The U.S. has crippled its economy by enforcing embargoes through a prolonged naval blockade. Its control over the Strait of Hormuz, its only leverage in the conflict, is slowly fading as oil exporters seek alternate routes.
Iranian propaganda can claim whatever it wants; the hard truth is that if there are any winners in this conflict, Iran is not one of them.
However, some argue that it is in the U.S. government’s interest, or, more specifically, Donald Trump’s, to end the conflict rather than wait for the drawn-out collapse of a regime that refuses to admit defeat.
Iranian Proposal
Tehran has recognized its predicament, urging the U.S. to accept a proposal that largely mirrors the previously signed memorandum of understanding.
That includes conditions such as the removal of the U.S. naval blockade, lifting of economic sanctions, and the release of billions of dollars of frozen funds in exchange for a reopened Strait of Hormuz and negotiations on the country’s nuclear program.
There’s some logic behind Tehran’s approach, given that the U.S. agreed to the memorandum earlier this year before it abruptly collapsed when Iran decided to attack commercial shipping.
If the deal could be made before, it can surely be made again.
New Context
However, Tehran’s problem is that the situation in which the memorandum of understanding was signed earlier this year has changed.
Iran once held a chokehold on oil exports because it relied on the Strait of Hormuz; that’s changed, with Gulf states using pipelines to bypass the strait or techniques to sneak vessels through undetected.
So much so that Middle East oil exports returned to pre-war levels at the end of September.
Iran is suffering as a result.
Its tit-for-tat economic war has found its limitations, with the Iranian economy feeling the brunt of a U.S. naval blockade, effectively isolating it from the rest of the world.
Its few exports are well below pre-war totals.
It’s not quite on the brink of economic collapse, but it’s far from what any analyst would describe as a healthy economy.
It’s Down to U.S.
President Trump has a scenario he adores: he can decide what comes next, with the opposing party becoming increasingly desperate for a deal.
He has made billions through such negotiations in his previous career as a businessman. It’s also helped him achieve favorable results in politics.
Trump’s main justification for the conflict has been, at least in the past few weeks, Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” he often retorts when facing scrutiny over the conflict.
If that’s the case, one could argue the war’s main objective has been achieved, and ending the fighting is therefore justifiable.
If it’s not, then the only solution, with Iran moving operations further underground, would be to send U.S. troops into enemy territory – something that is highly unlikely for a president who had Nobel Peace Prize ambitions 12 months ago.
Politics at Play
Both sides, of course, will claim victory if they reach a compromise agreement.
Tehran will claim Washington buckled under pressure, while the Trump administration will paint a picture of Iran that is only somewhat recognizable thanks to the President’s mercy.
However, that’s always going to be the case; unless Trump wiped out every Iranian official in government, Tehran would always claim some form of victory even in the event of a humiliating defeat.
The biggest argument for Trump ending the war is the political advantage.
A deal that opens the Strait of Hormuz would see oil prices tumble, improving Trump’s standing on the issue.
Granted, diesel may not retract from its flirtation with record highs until after the midterms, but hope is a far easier campaign for the GOP when there is light at the end of the tunnel.
The war is becoming increasingly difficult to justify for Trump and the GOP; several are even breaking ranks and calling for an end.
Iran is battered, broken, and beaten, and prolonging its suffering hurts America as much as its enemy. It’s time to end the war, once and for all.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
