Every year, the Social Security Administration announces the Cost-of-Living Adjustment, or COLA, usually in October, and the adjusted benefit amount takes effect the following January.
The amount is tied directly to inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Social Security Check. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
So when inflation is highest, the COLA increase is, too.
In 2021, it was 5.9 percent, while in 2022 it was 8.7 percent, the highest such figure since 1981.
In some years, such as 2009, 2010, and 2015, the adjustment was zero.
In recent years, the increase has been smaller, at 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.8 percent in 2025, based on the years the adjustments were announced.
With the 2026 announcement scheduled for October 14, what will this year’s COLA adjustment be?
Predicting the Next Number
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), an advocacy group that follows the issue closely, predicted in mid-September that the next COLA adjustment would come in at 3.5 percent, larger than the last two years but still down from the figures that arrived during the highly inflationary post-pandemic period.
TSCL makes these forecasts monthly and predicted 3.8 percent in June, 3.6 percent in July, and 3.5 percent in August.
The September forecast will be the last one before the number is announced later this month.
If the 3.5 percent increase comes to pass, the average benefit check will rise by $67.90, bringing the average monthly Social Security check to $2,007.98, per TSCL.
TSCL also said in the report that many seniors have “expressed strong dissatisfaction” with the COLA figures over the last two years.
The group pointed to survey results showing that 89 percent of those surveyed thought last year’s 2.8 percent figure was too low.
Additionally, 44 percent of seniors surveyed said that they draw all of their income from Social Security.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in the group’s release that they’re closely watching for any “short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days.” She also predicted that whether the final number comes in above or below the group’s projection, “seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run.”
The group argues, as it long has, that the CPI-W is not an accurate measure of inflation for seniors who collect Social Security.
In addition, the AARP issued its own forecast last month for the COLA adjustment, which came in slightly larger than TSCL, at 3.6 percent. It’s the first time the AARP has released such a forecast.
“The sooner that we can give them reliable information as to how much their benefits might [increase next year],” Rich Johnson, vice president for financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute, said in the group’s release. “The sooner they can start planning.”
What is the Future of Social Security?
Another major question about Social Security is when its trust fund might run out of money to pay full benefits, which is scheduled to happen at some point in the 2030s.
In June, the Social Security Board of Trustees issued its latest annual report about the status of the main Social Security trust funds.
Those trust funds — the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds — will have the revenue to “pay all scheduled benefits and associated administrative costs until 2034,” the same timeframe as the previous year’s report.
At that point, 83 percent of benefits will be payable to recipients.
In that announcement, Frank J. Bisignano, Commissioner of Social Security, called on SSA and lawmakers to “work together to ensure the trust funds continue to provide financial stability now and for future generations.”
An NPR analysis in September asked why the upcoming depletion of the trust funds isn’t being treated as an urgent campaign issue, as the midterm elections approach.
The answer is that neither party seems eager to spend political capital to address the issue.
“Fixing Social Security will likely involve cutting benefits for some Americans or raising taxes on higher earners,” NPR correspondent Ashley Lopez said. “These are decisions that could come with political blowback. “
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
