In late September, shortly after announcing the new Operation Economic Outcast initiative to punish countries that trade with Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that, thanks to the U.S. blockade, Iran would have nothing left to trade in two weeks.
In a Fox Business appearance, as reported by the New York Post, Bessent predicted that there were only “15 million more barrels of Iranian oil on the water” at that point, and that once that was delivered to China, Iran would be left with nothing left to trade, and therefore desperate to make a deal to end the war.
Military service members, veterans, and citizens of Guam gathered for the Memorial Day Commemoration at the Guam Veterans Cemetery. The Ceremony consisted of a fly over from a B-52H Stratofortress, a musical performance from the Guam Territorial Band & Cantate, guest speaking from the honorable Eddie Baza Calvo, a Fallen Soldier Gravesite Tribute, and the playing of Taps. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Jacob Snouffer/Released)
A B-52 Stratofortress assigned to the 5th Bomb Wing, Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, completes refueling behind a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 134th Air Refueling Wing, Tennessee Air National Guard, during exercise Saber Guardian 19, June 17, 2019. The bombers participated in three exercises in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, providing opportunities for training with our allies and partners. Strategic bomber missions enhance the readiness and training necessary to respond to any potential crisis or challenge across the globe. The USEUCOM, NATO exercise promotes regional stability and security while increasing readiness, strengthening partner capabilities and fostering trust. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Daniel Gagnon)
That interview with Bessent was on September 27, which is more than two weeks ago. Did that prediction come true?
According to a new analysis, the blockade has indeed significantly hurt Iran’s economy. But whether Iran is ready to capitulate is a separate question.
A Persian Proverb
The Economist reported last week that while the blockade is “breaking Iran’s economy,” it has not yet broken Iran’s ruling regime.
When the publication’s reporter asked Abdolnasser Hemmati, an Iranian central banker, whether the country was facing true economic collapse, Hemmati invoked a Persian proverb: “Chickens are counted at the end of autumn.”
It’s still early autumn, but as The Economist noted, Iran is experiencing its worst inflation since World War II, a weak currency—with the rial losing half its value this year—and, for the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, a month with oil loadings at zero.
The push by the U.S. and its allies to sanction and blockade Iran is working, especially now that sanctions are being enforced, at gunpoint, by an actual military blockade.
If the goal was to threaten Iran with economic collapse, that effort has shown some signs of success.
But what it hasn’t worked at is forcing Iran back to the negotiating table or threatening the stability of the regime.
That regime, per The Economist, is “looking for a way out—on their own terms,” as seen in recent indirect talks, in which Iran proposed reviving a version of the failed June Memorandum of Understanding.
However, the U.S. has rejected that approach. Economic pressure, whether from sanctions, the blockade, or Bessent’s Operation Economic Outcast, has clearly hurt Iran, but not enough to push it toward a deal closer to what the U.S. might accept.
What Comes Next?
There has not been much reported in recent days about talks or offers between the sides, at least since Trump announced last week that the U.S. would not attack Iran again before the midterm elections in early November.
That announcement implies Trump could resume military action after the elections, or at least use the prospect of such an attack as leverage in talks.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported Wednesday that Iran is fortifying sensitive sites, including nuclear facilities, ahead of potential attacks from the U.S., and is also vowing to retaliate across the Middle East against such attacks.
The Wall Street Journal also reported this week that in addition to the fortification of nuclear sites, Iran is holding rallies and “sending paramilitary forces to read war stories to kindergartners.” Perhaps more alarmingly, the Journal reported that there have been hints from Iranian officials that Iran could “conduct land incursions into neighboring countries,” with the United Arab Emirates cited as a potential target.
Another CNBC report, on Wednesday, cited IRGC chief Ali Ozmaei as stating that Iran is “counting the moments” until it can strike U.S. warships.
The comments came in an interview with Iranian state television, in which he dared the U.S. to bring its ships closer to the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Trump, in speaking at a rally in Ohio on Tuesday, made a surprisingly frank admission about a move the U.S. made earlier in the war.
“We might have gone too far with the leaders,” the president said of the U.S. decision to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader and other top officials at the start of the war in February. As a result, “we don’t know who the hell we’re dealing with anymore.” Trump did, however, spend other parts of the rally speech touting the success of the Iran War.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
