The Democrats look set for a major victory in November, with polls showing their candidates will win enough Republican seats to take control of the House of Representatives.
New polling suggests President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy is driving voters toward the opposition party, even as other polls show most voters don’t trust the Democrats to do a better job.
Donald Trump. Image Credit: The White House.
President Donald Trump attends UFC 314 at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
A new CBS News/YouGov survey finds that many Americans remain deeply dissatisfied with both parties and are increasingly voting against candidates rather than for their policy positions.
The survey, published Sunday, October 25, projects that Democrats are on track to win 229 seats in the House of Representatives, enough to end Republicans’ control of the chamber.
The projection comes as other major national surveys show Democrats maintaining a substantial advantage over Republicans, with voters largely concerned about inflation, rising gasoline prices, the Iran war, and the country’s direction.
The latest findings also suggest that while Democratic candidates benefit from President Trump’s unpopularity, they are struggling to win enough voters to expand their lead as Election Day approaches.
Democrats Could Win 229 House Seats
According to the survey, Democrats are set to win as many as 229 seats in the House of Representatives on November 3 — although the final result could still push the party’s total into the 230s.
The poll asked 2,355 American adults about their plans for Election Day and was conducted between October 21 and 23.
It found that Democrats still lead among voters concerned about the economy and the cost of living. 53% of respondents said they plan to vote Democrat, while 45% said they would vote Republican—but those are national ballot figures, meaning each congressional district will perform differently.
CBS News said its election model still leaves the Republican Party a narrow chance of retaining control of the chamber, but largely only if fewer enthusiastic Republican voters turn out than currently anticipated.
The findings aren’t especially new, either, with a separate CNN/SSRS poll published on October 21 showing Democrats leading Republicans 49% to 39% among registered voters.
That 10-point advantage was the largest CNN has recorded since immediately before the 2020 presidential election—an election the Democratic candidate won.
All signs, then, point to a likely Republican loss.
Voters Are Concerned About Rising Prices
The economy is the issue of this election — and even concern about the Iran war largely centers around it. The CBS News poll shows that Americans are particularly concerned about inflation and the likelihood of further increases in gasoline prices.
The survey found that voters were more likely to expect gasoline prices to keep increasing if Republicans retained control of Congress than if the Democrats won.
However, the findings also revealed that few Americans believe either party could reduce prices.
Voter pessimism went well beyond gasoline, too, with most respondents doubting that either party could substantially improve their finances.
The figures pose a major problem for President Trump, with most voters saying the administration’s policies are making them poorer.
And for Republican candidates, that means their chances of being re-elected are getting slimmer.
Democrats may also be the preferred alternative for many dissatisfied voters —and they don’t even need to spend much time convincing those voters that the party has a clear plan to improve the economy.
All they need to do is simply not be Republicans.
Trump’s Approval Rating Keeps Falling
The latest polling figures come as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings continue to slide, with some polls putting his approval rating at its lowest level in either of his terms.
According to CNN’s October 21 survey, just 32% of Americans approve of President Trump’s performance. 67% said they disapprove.
A separate poll by the New York Times and Siena College found that 36% of respondents supported the president.
A Financial Times/Focaldata survey published on October 25 also showed that Democrats are extending their voting advantage on the generic congressional ballot, reaching a nine-percentage-point advantage among likely voters.
One Thing Could Change It All: Republican Turnout Could Change Everything
The Republicans’ only real hope of avoiding a total defeat is to turn out their own supporters, who currently feel less than optimistic about the party.
The CBS News survey found that voters who say they will only “probably” or “maybe” participate in November are more likely to support Republican candidates.
This could let the GOP outperform current projections if those voters ultimately turn out.
Those figures reflect the Republicans’ current strategy, which has seen President Donald Trump turn out to rallies across safe Republican states to rally a base increasingly concerned about his performance so far.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
